Please Stop Calling Christian McCaffrey the NFL MVP Favorite
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey
- Mainstream sports media has fallen in love with Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.
- Using Vegas odds, we examine whether McCaffrey is among the favorites to win the 2019 NFL MVP award.
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is fun. The electricity is palpable when the ball is in his hands, making him must-see entertainment for a team that continues to score and win despite losing its starting quarterback weeks ago.
And don’t forget that RUN CMC’s gaudy numbers have solidified him as the top fantasy football player through the first six weeks of season.
Because of this, many mainstream media types — we’re looking at you Tony Kornheiser — have mentioned McCaffrey as a frontrunner to win the 2019 NFL MVP award.
Thankfully, we have Vegas odds to help cut through the emotion of what’s flashy and new and lend realistic expectations for the players truly leading the pack.
Spoiler alert: Christian McCaffrey is not the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
In fact, his MVP odds actually dropped from 10-1 to 12-1 following Carolina’s Week 6 win against Tampa Bay, a game in which CMC managed just 31 yards on 22 carries, while adding only 26 yards receiving.
Here’s a look at how McCaffrey’s MVP odds have moved at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas since June.
Christian McCaffrey NFL MVP Odds
Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 14 touchdowns and zero (!) interceptions, while completing 72.5% of his passes for the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks is the new MVP favorite with 2-1 odds.
Patrick Mahomes (+225), who had been the favorite since odds opened, fell to the No. 2 spot after the Kansas City Chiefs lost their second straight game.
If we truly want to talk about MVP movers, the mainstream conversation should be centered around Deshaun Watson, who catapulted from 12-1 prior to Week 6 to 4-1 this week.
Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook (20-1) isn’t that far off CMC’s odds, but there hasn’t been a peep about the Vikings’ workhorse entering the MVP conversation.
From an implied probability standpoint, McCaffrey’s current odds of 12-1 convert to a 7.69% chance of winning NFL MVP, and that’s before adjusting for the vig that sportsbooks charge to place bets. So, CMC’s true chances of winning the award are even lower.
There’s no denying that McCaffrey is on pace for one of the greatest seasons from a running back in NFL history, but let’s hold off on the MVP talk until Vegas decides he’s on par with the true frontrunners, like Wilson and Mahomes.