Ravens vs Browns Prediction, Odds, Pick | NFL Week 10
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Ravens vs Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 38 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 38 -110o / -110u | +225 |
One of the marquee games of the NFL Week 10 Sunday slate, Ravens vs Browns odds have Baltimore installed as a 6.5-point favorite on the spread with a game total over/under of 38.
Cleveland enters this matchup with Baltimore boasting the league's top-rated defense, which will face Lamar Jackson in the midst of his best season as a passer in his career. The Ravens quarterback has an opportunity to give the Browns' formidable defense problems.
Check out my game preview and Ravens vs. Browns prediction below.
Ravens vs Browns Prediction
At 7-2, the Ravens are tied with the Chiefs for the best record in the AFC and second best in the entire league behind only the Eagles (8-1). Baltimore's offense is ranked fourth in offensive success rate and seventh in EPA per play.
The addition of Todd Monken to Baltimore's coaching staff has paid dividends in the passing game. Jackson has the highest completion percentage of his career at 71.5%. He also has a career-low interception rate while maintaining his second-highest mark in yards per attempt.
Even with the Ravens' positive game scripts this season, Jackson is averaging 28.1 pass attempts, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. His 217.1 yards per game is also the second-highest average of his career.
Baltimore’s 0% pass rate over expected is middle of the pack, but it is the highest rate the Ravens have posted during Jackson’s career as they typically pass at a lower-than-expected frequency adjusted for situation.
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Through the first half of the season, Cleveland's defense has dominated and ranks as the best in the league in several categories. However, the Browns have benefited from a favorable schedule of teams with subpar quarterbacks and offensive lines.
In the six games their defense allowed 24 points or fewer, they have played O-lines that rank outside the top 20 in PFF pass-blocking grades. This has made things easier on Cleveland’s elite defensive line.
Cleveland allowed 38 points to Indianapolis (15th in pass-blocking grade) and 28 to Baltimore in an easy Week 4 victory.
On the year, the Ravens rank seventh in PFF pass-blocking grade. This should help them once again neutralize Cleveland’s biggest strength on the defensive side of the ball.
Jackson has only gone over his yardage prop (209.5) for this week four times this season, but for good reason. The Ravens have been ahead in many of these games early and had no need to lean on the pass.
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In the four games Jackson failed to eclipse 200 yards, the Ravens had at least a two-touchdown lead at some point. Jackson averaged just 23.5 pass attempts compared to 31.8 in the other five games.
One of these blowout games was against the Browns, but it was when Dorian Thompson-Robinson was thrown into action on short notice and Cleveland failed to put up a fight.
In the Oct. 1 matchup, Jackson showed he could have success against the Browns, completing 15-of-19 attempts for 186 yards and two touchdowns.
Assuming the Browns can be more of an offensive threat on Sunday, I expect Jackson's passing volume to be on the higher end, resulting in another efficient performance.
Ravens vs. Browns
Betting Picks & Predictions
Jackson is having one of the best seasons of his career passing the ball despite the Ravens not having to rely on him to do so. This divisional matchup should shape up to be a competitive one with Jackson seeing a higher passing volume than he did in the first meeting.
Cleveland’s defensive prowess on the year is dragging down Jackson's yardage prop, but the Browns' defensive numbers are a bit inflated based on the level of competition they've faced.
Baltimore’s offensive line will be able to hold up against the Browns’ pass rush well enough for Jackson to have a strong day throwing the ball.
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