Rams vs Browns Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 13 Betting Pick
Getty Images. Pictured: Myles Garrett (left) and Matthew Stafford (right).
Rams vs Browns Odds, Prediction
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
The latest Rams vs. Browns odds for NFL Week 13 have Cleveland installed as 3.5-point underdogs on the spread with a game total of 39.5. I'm focusing on a player prop, though, for my NFL pick.
Myles Garrett is having one of the best seasons of his career but has stout competition for Defensive Player of the Year. On Sunday, the leader of the best defense in the league has a great opportunity to boost his numbers against a rather weak Rams offensive line. As such, a Garrett player prop is my pick for this game at SoFi Stadium.
Let's preview Cleveland-Los Angeles and get into my Rams vs. Browns prediction.
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Rams vs Browns Pick
Myles Garrett has long been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. However, he has taken it up another notch and appears to be on the path toward his first career Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Right now, it is a two-horse race with Micah Parsons at +150 and Garrett on his heels at +160. Garrett will need to put together some good games down the stretch in order to take home the hardware.
Garrett’s 14 sacks are tied for the league high with three other players right now. He is third in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric among qualifying players. He is also second in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and ninth in run stop win rate.
As a whole, the Browns defense has wrecked havoc on opposing teams. They are fourth in pass rush win rate and first in run stop win rate. This unit also ranks third in PFF pass rushing grade.
On the season, Cleveland has the best EPA per play allowed and success rate allowed by a sizable margin. The Browns are particularly strong against the pass by these metrics, where they lead the league in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate allowed.
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The Rams’ offensive line can be described as mediocre at best, which will pose a problem for them against this vaunted Browns pass rush. The Rams rank 24th in PFF pass blocking grade and 25th in pass block win rate.
This offensive line has done Matthew Stafford no favors. Among quarterbacks with at least 38 dropbacks under pressure, 92.1% of the pressures allowed by the Rams with Stafford under center have been the fault of the offensive line.
Compared to the rest of the league, the biggest problem areas for L.A.'s offensive line have been at left tackle and center. Of the Rams’ dropbacks with pressures, the center position has bared some responsibility (20.2%; third highest) while the left tackle have been responsible for a whopping 32.5% (fourth highest).
The Rams’ left tackle is Alaric Jackson, a third-year player out of Iowa. Jackson’s 29 pressures allowed is the most on Los Angeles’ roster. Among 51 offensive tackles who have played at least 50% of snaps, Jackson ranks 37th in pass blocking productivity.
Jackson has also allowed six quarterback hits, which is eighth highest among qualifying tackles. He ranks 51st among 63 qualifying tackles in PPF pass block grade.
Unfortunately for Jackson, he will be lining up across from Myles Garrett. This season, 85.8% of Garrett’s rushes have come from the right side of the defense. Garrett has 10 sacks from an alignment on the right side of the defense, which is tied for second in the NFL.
Garrett was on the injury report all week but returned to practice and doesn't carry an injury designation.
Rams vs. Browns
Betting Picks & Predictions
Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the league and will have a very favorable matchup against Alaric Jackson. Garrett appears to be healed up from last week’s injury and is ready to keep making his DPOY push.
I like taking Garrett to register over 0.75 sacks this weekend at -135 and I would play to -145.
Pick: Myles Garrett Over 0.75 Sacks (-135 to -145; DraftKings).
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