Our 3 Favorite Colts vs. Chiefs Prop Bets & Picks
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damien Williams
- You'll find our three favorite NFL prop bets for the Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs below.
- That includes picks for Damien Williams' receiving yards over/under and two more.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
My Sunday Night prop bets have hit at a 72.7% (8-3) win rate this season. Let’s take a look at three props with a perfect Bet Quality of 10 for the Sunday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs. Since the start of the season, props with a grade of 10 or higher have gone 298-198-1 (60.0% win rate).
Colts vs. Chiefs Prop Bets
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
THE PICK: Under 35.5 receiving yards (-148)
Bet Quality: 10/10
This prop bet has the highest projected differential from the implied total on the Sunday Night Football slate.
Williams returns from injury to join a crowded backfield. Here’s the touch distribution on the season for the Chiefs:
- LeSean McCoy: 49
- Damien Williams: 31
- Darrel Williams: 25
- Darwin Thompson: 5
It has been a true committee.
While Williams has shown efficiency in the passing game, he averaged only 44 receiving yards per game before the injury, which was also before Darrel Williams shined in his absence.
In a game that profiles as a blowout with Kansas City favored by 11 points, it is likely Damien will receive a reduced role with Darrel likely continuing to get work.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 24.6 receiving yards is well below the 35.5 line.
Colts QB Jacoby Brissett
THE PICK: Under 20.5 rushing yards (-114)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett will run, but he likely won’t run far enough to beat this prop.
Over his last 20 starts, Brissett has averaged 15.8 rushing yards per game. This season, that number has dropped to 14.2 per game.
The quarterback depth chart was dramatically reduced after Andrew Luck’s retirement, and Indianapolis simply can’t afford for Brissett to get hurt.
Brissett is averaging 4.5 carries per game but has crested 20.5 yards only once. The Chiefs are allowing over six yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, but that includes 46 yards by Lamar Jackson.
Remove that game, and the Chiefs have allowed an average of just 14 rushing yards per game from opposing quarterbacks.
The Colts will need to control the ball early and will lean on their trio of running backs to increase the time of possession. It’s difficult to see Brissett exceeding this mark in a difficult road environment at Arrowhead Stadium.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -135.
Colts TE Jack Doyle
THE PICK: Under 33.5 receiving yards (-112)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Brissett ranks just 14th among all quarterbacks in attempts and 23rd in completed air yards (PlayerProfiler). Indianapolis is deliberate and conservative with his pass attempts.
Doyle shares targets with fellow tight end Eric Ebron and thus ranks just 20th at the position in total receiving yards. This season Doyle has beaten this receiving yard total only once. That includes last week when leading wideout T.Y. Hilton did not play. In that affair, which the Colts lost after trailing the entire game, Doyle caught just four passes for 22 yards.
Our model projects 20% fewer receiving yards than the implied total of 34.4. The -112 juice is still very enticing for this 10-rated prop bet.