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Commanders vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 4

Commanders vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, Prediction for Week 4 article feature image
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Rob Carr/Getty. Pictured: Carson Wentz.

  • The Cowboys are favored at home against the Commanders in Week 4.
  • Washington enters on a two-game losing streak, while Dallas is 2-0 with Cooper Rush starting.
  • Landon Silinsky breaks down the matchup and lays out how he's betting the game below.

Commanders vs Cowboys Odds

Sunday, Sept. 29
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Commanders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-110
41.5
-105o / -115u
+136
Cowboys Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-110
41.5
-105o / -115u
-162
Odds via BetMGM. Learn more about the BetMGM bonus code and get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This is a pretty important game for both teams, specifically Washington, as the Commanders have dropped two straight games after beating the Jags in Week 1. The Cowboys, meanwhile, will trot out Cooper Rush for potentially his last start, with Dak Prescott ramping up his rehab.

After a bad loss in Week 1 to Tampa, Dallas has won two straight and looks to stay within striking distance of the Eagles.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Commanders and Cowboys match up statistically:

Commanders vs. Cowboys DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 29 8
Pass DVOA 27 6
Rush DVOA 25 19
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 15 29
Pass DVOA 15 28
Rush DVOA 3 16

This is a complete mismatch for a Washington offensive line that allowed a whopping nine sacks last week against the Eagles. Now, the Commanders get to face arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL in Micah Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys strong front seven.

We know Carson Wentz likes to throw deep,  but he could have a lot of trouble doing so this week as the Cowboys pass rush neutralizes deep passing and is allowing the fifth-fewest air yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Dallas also ranks ninth in quarterback pressure rate.

On the flip side, Washington’s defense has been getting shredded by opposing quarterbacks, allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL on just the 12th most attempts allowed.

The Cowboys definitely prefer to run the ball with Rush under center, but Washington has been good against the run and Dallas has a big edge on the outside with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, who will be making his season debut.

Betting Picks

We know Washington will come out throwing, but I also expect Dallas will have a pass-centric game plan against the porous Commanders secondary. More pass attempts mean more clock stoppages and more plays.

There is absolutely a chance for some big plays here — on both sides of the ball  — and I like this game to clear the 41.5 total.

Pick: Over 41.5 | Bet to 42

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