Dolphins vs. 49ers Odds & Pick: Back San Fran over Miami at Home
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo
- The San Francisco 49ers will host the Miami Dolphins in a Week 5 matchup on Sunday.
- With Jimmy Garoppolo back in the lineup for San Francisco, Mike Randle doesn't think bettors should be tempted by Miami.
- Check out Randle's full betting analysis with updated odds below.
Dolphins vs. 49ers Odds
Coming off a loss in last season’s Super Bowl, the 49ers find themselves 2-2, having lost both of their home games this season to the Cardinals and Eagles. Sitting in third place in the NFC West, San Francisco hosts the Dolphins.
Could 1-3 Miami send the 49ers to a third straight home loss? Let’s dig in to find out.
The Dolphins have ruled out two players: Defensive end Shaq Lawson and tight end Durham Smythe. The more important loss is Lawson, who suffered a shoulder injury in Miami’s 31-23 home loss to Seattle. His 10 tackles, one sack and five quarterback hits will need to be filled by career backup Zach Sieler and a pair of rookie defensive linemen in Raekwon Davis and Jason Strowbridge.
The Dolphins will need to rely heavily on defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who will be the only Miami starting front seven player ranking inside Pro Football Focus’ top-20 rush defensive grades.
The Dolphins have produced sporadic offensive efficiency with veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. The 37-year-old’s “risk it for the biscuit” attitude is dangerous, especially against a San Francisco defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Wide receiver DeVante Parker faces a secondary that has stingily allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts. He will need to carry the production with teammate Preston Williams still yet to get into a groove after spending the offseason recovering from a torn ACL.
Miami’s best bet for an offensive spark might be to incorporate little-used running back Matt Breida in a potential revenge game. Whether it’s the former Niner Breida, Myles Gaskin or short-yardage special Jordan Howard, look for a relentless San Francisco run defense to again limit their opposition’s production on the ground. In last week’s 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia, running back Miles Sanders managed only 13 rushes for 46 yards with two receptions.
Uber-athletic tight end Mike Gesicki, who is second on the Dolphins with 190 receiving yards this year, will again have a difficult time against a San Francisco team that’s allowed a total of 12 receptions and 84 receiving yards to opposing tight ends over four games.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ defense is dealing with a multitude of injuries, especially to its secondary. San Francisco could potentially be without four cornerbacks against Miami, including Richard Sherman, who is on injured reserve with a calf strain.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco could possibly see the return of lead running back Raheem Mostert, who returned to practice this week. Mostert dominated in two games before suffering an MCL sprain in Week 2. Including that game against the Jets in which he got hurt, Mostert has 258 total yards of offense and two touchdowns.
San Francisco is, fortunately, deep at the running back position with Jerick McKinnon, who has 251 total yards of offense since Week 2, and Jeff Wilson, who scored twice in Week 3 against the Giants, providing balance and flexibility. Running backs are averaging a robust 4.5 yards per carry this season against Miami.
Under center, the 49ers will definitely welcome back quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed San Francisco’s last two games due to a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most passing yards and fantasy points to opposing signal callers this year.
Garoppolo’s weapons will include tight end George Kittle, who is the top fantasy tight end on average at 24.7 fantasy points per game; rookie Brandon Aiyuk coming off a WR 12 performance in Week 3 and another touchdown in Week 4; and Deebo Samuel, the 49ers’ top receiver from last season who returned from a Jones fracture last week.
In 10 games with Garoppolo under center at home, San Francisco is averaging 30.9 points per game with a 10.1 point differential.
I expect San Francisco to dominate time of possession with its strong running game and stout defense. The 49ers’ ability to stop the run will force Fitzpatrick to try to attack their weak secondary. While Fitzpatrick is known for the occasional explosive performance, I see the 49ers forcing multiple turnovers and wearing down a Miami defensive void of elite playmakers.
The return of Garoppolo and potentially Mostert, combined with facing a potential 0-3 start at home, means I’m laying the points for the defending NFC champions.
I would take this line up to San Francisco -9.5.
PICK: 49ers -8