Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 4
Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Josh Allen.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Dolphins vs. Bills odds have the home team laying a field goal in Week 4's marquee matchup.
It’s rare there's such a clear-cut marquee matchup on the NFL Sunday slate, but this AFC East showdown features two of the league’s best teams and has the highest total of the week. The Dolphins are the hottest team in football, which gives us a great opportunity to back Buffalo at home at a discount.
Let's preview the game and make our Dolphins vs. Bills pick.
Miami has the best offense in football in seemingly every metric and it bears out in DVOA. The Dolphins' 8.4 yards per play is also the top mark by a wide margin.
The Bills boast the No. 2 defense in total DVOA and represent Mike McDaniel’s toughest test to date. Miami put up impressive numbers against the 29th- and 32nd-ranked defenses (Chargers and Broncos), but it’s as if the market isn’t taking into consideration its performance against the 11th-ranked Patriots defense. New England held Miami to 40% conversions on 3rd downs and 6.4 yards per play.
This Bills defense, through three games, has stuffed 30% of rushes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-best mark in the league. Buffalo's ability to maintain gap integrity will be crucial in limiting the explosive duo of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. I'm not ignoring Buffalo’s vulnerability to explosive rushes — the Bills are last in the league in yards after contact allowed per rush (4.84) — but it’s important to add context.
Those numbers are a reflection of a small sample size and skewed by two Breece Hall runs from Week 1. Buffalo's defense ranked third in the league in adjusted line yards in 2022 and also first in stuff rate a season ago. Historically, this unit has been strong against the run and also held the Dolphins to fewer than 50 rushing yards in one of their meetings last season.
Miami’s ground attack is the foundation of its offense. Any team that fails to put Tua Tagovailoa behind the sticks is almost certainly going to get shredded.
Bet Miami vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
Buffalo has shown an ability to stuff runs, and if the Bills can put the Dolphins in long down-and-distance situations, they'll have the ability to thrive. Buffalo is third in the league in pass rush win rate and has allowed -0.361 EPA (expected points added) on opposing dropbacks, trailing only the Browns.
If Buffalo can get pressure, it will disrupt the timing of Tagovailoa and his receivers. Tagovailoa's passer rating is a near-perfect 137.7 when kept clean, but drops to 57.7 when faced with pressure.
The Bills' real advantage will be when they possess the football; the Dolphins defense is allowing 4.75 yards per carry (28th). James Cook led the NFL in explosive rate last season and has the second-most 10-plus-yard carries through three games, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. The Dolphins defense runs the risk of tiring out if they can't get Josh Allen and company off the field.
Allen has seen Vic Fangio’s defense in the past and has had no problem disposing of it. Miami hasn't done enough to bother opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing a 55.8% highly accurate pass percentage rate, according to FantasyPoints. That metric looks at how often a completion is virtually flawless, hitting the receiver in stride or between the jersey numbers.
The only defenses worse than Miami in that category are the Chargers, Broncos and Vikings. Those three teams rank 27th or worse, according to DVOA.
Behind a balanced attack, I expect the Bills to light up the scoreboard.
Dolphins vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
Allen has been a home favorite on 35 occasions throughout his career and the Bills have won 80% of those games. He has led his team to a cover in 64% of games in which the spread was three points or fewer in either direction.
Oddsmakers opened this game above the key number of three, but the buzz around the Dolphins' dominance pushed it below a field goal.
I will gladly take advantage of the value with the better overall team and lay the points with the Bills.
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