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Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Betting Pick

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Jaguars vs Texans Odds, Prediction

Sunday, Nov. 26
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Jaguars Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-1.5
-110
48.5
-110o / -110u
-125
Texans Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+1.5
-110
48.5
-110o / -110u
+105
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Jaguars vs. Texans odds have Jacksonville installed as a 1.5-point favorites on the spread at most books on Sunday morning with a game total of 48, which is among Week 12's highest. My NFL picks for this matchup, though, are backing C.J. Stroud.

You’re not a football fan if you’re not fired up for this showdown, which could decide the AFC South. The Jaguars (7-3) enter Sunday with the division lead, but the Texans are streaking as winners of three straight games. Houston blew out Jacksonville in the first encounter back in Week 3, 37-17, so another win would give the Texans the season sweep and first place.

I don’t have a strong feel for who’ll come out on top, but I do expect Stroud to air it out so I'm all over his player props. I’m backing the likely NFL Rookie of the Year in this clash, so continue reading for my Jaguars vs. Texans prediction.


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Jaguars vs Texans Picks

Pick 1: C.J. Stroud Over 267.5 Passing Yards | Bet to 275.5
Pick 2: C.J. Stroud Over 34.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 36.5


Jaguars vs. Texans

Matchup Analysis

I’d be shocked if the Texans don’t cut Stroud loose. They’ve been too successful in recent weeks to deviate from what’s been a winning formula, especially in what’s arguably their biggest game since reaching the playoffs four years ago.

I don’t usually put a lot of eggs in one player’s basket, but I’m making an exception for Stroud.  My two favorite bets are backing him to go over 34.5 attempts and to go over 267.5 passing yards. If forced to choose only one, I give the slightest — and I mean slightest — of leans to yards. However, it’s a relative toss up, so feel free to pick whichever tickles your fancy.

First off, teams prefer attacking the Jaguars through the air as Jacksonville faces the fourth-most pass attempts per game (37.9). That number’s even higher when Jacksonville's on the road, as home teams average 41.6 attempts, which is second most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Stroud is attempting the seventh-most pass attempts per game (35.5). Houston’s also relied on him more and more as the season has progressed. Stroud has averaged 39.3 pass attempts over the past three games, which is 10.1 more than the 29.2 he averaged over the previous five games.


Bet Jacksonville vs. Houston at FanDuel

Jaguars -1.5 (-112)

Texans +1.5 (-108)


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Stroud averages the second-most passing yards per game (296.2), while Jacksonville surrenders the fifth most (255.4). The rookie’s recent uptick in attempts has unsurprisingly led to a big jump in his output. He’s averaging a ridiculous 387.3 passing yards per game over the past three weeks, which is 152.5 more than the 234.8 he averaged over the previous five. It’s also over 100 yards more than the line heading into this game.

Additionally, the Texans are apt to churn out chunk plays any time Stroud drops back. He’s completed passes of at least 20 yards on 16.8% of his attempts since Week 8 (24-of-143). That’s the second-best mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s given up 20-plus-yard pass plays on 11.0% of attempts over that span, which is tied for fourth worst in the league.

Finally, the Texans would be foolish to try pounding it out with a middling run game that averages a paltry 99.5 yards per game. Houston averages the fourth-fewest yards per carry (3.5) and has totaled the seventh-fewest total yards on the ground (998).

Meanwhile, the Jaguars boast one of the league’s best run defenses. Jacksonville ranks second in defensive run DVOA and has given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (87).

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Jaguars vs. Texans

Betting Picks & Predictions

Stroud’s in the midst of one of the greatest rookie quarterback campaigns in NFL history and has rightfully climbed into the outskirts of the MVP conversation. A big-time performance against Jacksonville might just vault him into the thick of the race.

Some things seem too good to be true, and this might end up being the case. However, everything appears to line up for another busy, productive day for Stroud, which is why I’m excited to back him against the Jaguars.

I’d take his passing attempts up to 36.5 and his yards to 275.5. Once again, if forced to choose, I give the slightest of leans to the latter.  However, I clearly like both, so if you’re feeling risky, you may want to sprinkle a bit on a Stroud parlay.

Pick 1: Stroud Over 267.5 Passing Yards | Bet to 275.5
Pick 2: Stroud Over 34.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 36.5
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