Raiders vs Bears Odds | NFL Week 7 Prediction, Pick (October 22)

Raiders vs. Bears odds have seen the spread move one-half point in the last 24 hours from -3 to -2.5. The total opened Sunday at 38 at bet365, but it moved up to 38.5 as of 10:30 a.m. ET.

The Raiders travel to Chicago to take on the Bears in what will be a matchup of backup quarterbacks with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields ruled out. Instead, we'll get a matchup featuring Brian Hoyer against undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent at Soldier Field.

Let's break down the game and find our Raiders vs. Bears pick.

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At this point, I think that we all know what Hoyer is. The undrafted free agent from the 2009 draft has made his way around the league but has always found his way back to Josh McDaniels. 

Now reunited with his former offensive coordinator in New England, Hoyer will get the nod over rookie Aidan O’Connell, who started a game earlier this year with poor results. 

Hoyer saw action last weekend against the Patriots when he entered the game in the second half following Garoppolo’s injury. Playing with a lead, Hoyer didn’t have to throw often, but he did complete 6-of-10 passes for 102 yards.

Chicago has had one of the worst defenses in the league this season. The Bears rank 31st in EPA per play allowed and 21st in success rate. The passing defense has been their largest issue as they are 23rd in dropback success rate allowed and 31st in EPA per dropback allowed.

The Bears defense is graded 30th by PFF this season. They rank 32nd in pass rushing grade and 27th in coverage grade, both of which should help Hoyer when passing. 

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Las Vegas’ offensive line has been great at pass blocking. According to PFF, it's the seventh-best pass blocking unit in the league; it's also fifth in pass block win rate. If the line can maintain this level against Chicago’s inept pass rush, Hoyer will be able to just sit back and fire at will.

Using PFF’s OL/DL matchup tool, Las Vegas has a 41% advantage in the trenches in the passing game. This is one of the largest advantages you will see when using this tool and it is the second-largest gap between two teams on the week.

What also doesn’t hurt this pick is that Davante Adams has not exactly been shy about wanting to get the ball more. He realizes, like everyone else, that this offense has not been great this season and knows that it will improve if he gets the ball more.

A good ol' fashioned squeaky wheel game for one of the best receivers in the league may only help this number go over as this may cause the Raiders to pass more.

Adams hasn’t been receiving the attention he normally does as there are other reliable weapons surrounding him. Jakobi Meyers joined from New England over the offseason and he has put up 335 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Jacobs has also gotten involved in the passing game with 25 receptions of his own.

Rookie tight end Michael Mayer has emerged in the last couple of weeks. After getting just one reception through September, he has seven catches for 114 yards over the last two games.

At just 215.5 yards, I think Hoyer will be able to go over his passing yards total.

I know this seems crazy as Hoyer hasn’t thrown for more yards than this in a game since 2017, but I think that he will be able to do it against a weak Chicago defense.

It has been years since we have seen it, but Hoyer has shown, at times, that he is capable of putting up numbers when called upon. In this situation, Hoyer should have everything he needs to succeed with strong receivers and an offensive line going up against one of the weakest pass rushes and secondaries in the league.

I like taking the over at 215.5 and would play this all the way up closer to 234.5.

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