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Saints vs Eagles Odds: Expert Pick on Week 17 Over/Under

Saints vs Eagles Odds: Expert Pick on Week 17 Over/Under article feature image
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Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.

  • The Gardner Minshew-led Eagles are home favorites against the Saints.
  • Minshew led Philadelphia to 34 points in a loss last week to the Cowboys.
  • Ricky Henne previews the game and makes his Saints vs Eagles pick below.

Saints vs Eagles Odds

Sunday, Jan. 1
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Saints Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+5.5
-105
41.5
-110o / -110u
+215
Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-5.5
-115
41.5
-110o / -110u
-260
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

At first glance in my search for a Saints vs Eagles pick, Sunday’s showdown has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair.

Philadelphia surrenders the second-fewest yards per game (301.9) and ranks fifth in DVOA (-10.4%), according to Football Outsiders.  Meanwhile, the Saints rank 13th in DVOA and haven’t given up more than 20 points in six straight games.

Saints vs Eagles odds show that both teams are also dealing with significant injuries on offense. Jalen Hurts — the MVP front-runner as recently as two weeks ago — is set to miss his second straight game. The Eagles will also be without perennial Pro Bowl tackle Lane Johnson, who hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 11 of the 2020 season. Meanwhile, a ho-hum Saints offense will be without key members of its offensive line and wide receiver corps.

As a result, sportsbooks have set the line at 41.5 heading into the weekend. That’s a major overreaction. Let’s take a look at why it’s way too low, and why the over is the play when these teams square off in the City of Brotherly Love.

Saints vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and Eagles match up statistically:

Saints vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 22 5
Pass DVOA 19 1
Rush DVOA 22 19
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 2 13
Pass DVOA 6 11
Rush DVOA 1 21

For most teams, losing an MVP-caliber quarterback would be a significant setback. While Gardner Minshew is certainly a step down, he proved last week he’s more than capable of leading a high-powered offensive attack.

Minshew Mania was in full effect as he accounted for three touchdowns (two through the air and one on the ground) while completing 24-of-40 passes for 355 yards. He moved the Eagles up and down the field against a Dallas defense ranked second in both total DVOA (-13.7) and pass DVOA (-12.7%).

Now, Minshew leads the Eagles against a Saints defense that has given up just 15 points per game over the past three weeks. That’s the sixth-fewest in the league over that span, but it isn’t quite as impressive as it may seem based on who they’ve played.


Bet New Orleans vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel


New Orleans limited the Browns to a mere 10 points a week ago, but that was heavily influenced by six-degree Arctic-like conditions with 30 mph winds. Before that, it held Atlanta to 18 points, but that was against rookie Desmond Ridder, who was making his first NFL start.  And before that, the Saints faced a Tampa Bay offense averaging the sixth-fewest points in the league.

Now, New Orleans must go up against a Philadelphia team averaging 35.7 points per game (most in the NFL) over that same span. Odds are the Saints are in for a rude awakening.

Although New Orleans isn’t close to the dominant offensive force it was in the Sean Payton era, the Saints are facing an Eagles defense that’s struggled mightily of late.

Philadelphia has given up 25.3 points per game over its past three games, a far cry from the 18.8 points it averaged in the 12 games prior. Two of the league’s most pitiful offenses, the Giants and Bears, recently eclipsed their season averages against Philadelphia and the Cowboys just dropped a 40-burger on the Eagles.

Betting Picks

The total between the Saints and Eagles is simply way too low. In fact, our model projections love the over in this game, giving it a 4.8% edge over what sportsbooks are offering. That’s the biggest edge of any game this week as our NFL power ratings believe the line should be 44.5.

In addition, as Evan Abrams points out, the Eagles have the largest margin to the over with their games going over by 4.4 points per game. This line has dropped to 41.5, which would be the lowest mark heading into any Eagles game this season. In addition, at least 42 points have been scored in 12 of Philadelphia’s 15 games this year, including in 11 of its past 12.

Sportsbooks have overreacted in a major way, and I’m taking advantage by putting multiple units on the over. I’d take it up to the 44.5 our model projects.

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