Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17 Preview

Buccaneers vs Saints odds have Tampa Bay listed as a 2.5-point home favorite on the spread with an over/under of 42.5 total points. However, my Buccaneers vs Saints prediction & pick for NFL Week 17 is on the road underdog.

Unexpectedly, the Saints and Buccaneers are playing one of the biggest games of the year in NFL Week 17. The Bucs, who have won four straight games, have a one-game lead in the division and can clinch the NFC South by winning one of their last two contests. The Saints are in the more desperate spot as they will be eliminated from playoff contention altogether with a loss.

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The Bucs have been playing well the last few weeks due to the solid play of Baker Mayfield. Amongst qualified quarterbacks, Mayfield is sixth in EPA per play, squarely between last year’s Super Bowl quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. However, the Bucs have become quite one dimensional on offense.

Tampa Bay ranks 27th in rush offense DVOA with Rachaad White lacking production as the lead back. This is good news for a Saints defense that has struggled against the rush, ranking 26th in rush defense DVOA. They are a really good unit against the pass, however, ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints defense matches up well to stop what the Bucs want to do in the passing game.

Over the last few weeks, the Bucs defense has had a pretty light schedule. They have faced a hobbled Trevor Lawrence (who clearly should not have been playing), Desmond Ridder (who has since been benched), Bryce Young and Gardner Minshew. Only Jordan Love and the Packers were a real test, and it was the offense that carried them to a win in that game.

Overall, the Bucs have been a lucky team this season — specifically, Mayfield has been fortunate to not have as many turnovers despite putting the ball in harm's way. According to Action Network's Luck Rankings, the Bucs have been the second-luckiest team in the NFL while the Saints have been the second unluckiest team. When there is a luck differential of 28 places or more, the unlucky team is 21-11-1 ATS.

Mayfield has been great as an underdog and that has shown over the last few weeks. However, he is 13-25 (34%) ATS as a favorite in his career. After winning four straight games, this appears to be the top of the market for the Bucs and the right time to sell.

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The Saints have also been better on offense, averaging 25.5 points per game over their last four games — that has included matchups against two potential playoff teams in the Lions and the Rams.

When Chris Olave is healthy, it makes a massive difference for Derek Carr. Olave finally seems to be back to full health and it showed with 119 receiving yards last week against the Rams.

Rashid Shaheed has also been seeing more snaps, which adds an extra element to New Orleans' offense. He is a speedy deep threat who can create explosive plays — like last week’s 45-yard touchdown catch. This also benefits Olave as it takes some attention off him.

Of note is that the Bucs CB Carlton Davis in concussion protocol. Needless to say, their job on defense would only be tougher without him.

This seems to be the peak of the market on the Bucs after they rattled off four straight wins.

The Saints are the more desperate team as they have to win their last two games just to possibly make the playoffs . It only makes sense that this messy NFC South comes down to Week 18 and potentially all three teams tied at 8-8 entering the final game of the season.