Giants vs Commanders Odds, Prediction: Week 11 NFL Pick
Giants vs. Commanders odds have Washington as a 9-point home favorite with a game total of just 38.5 for NFL Week 11, but a there's a key matchup that has me looking elsewhere for my Giants vs. Commanders prediction.
Coming off a surprising playoff run a season ago, the Giants are in the midst of a season from hell at 2-8. But that doesn't necessarily mean I'm siding with the Commanders — instead I'm targeting a Terry McLaurin player prop. Washington's WR1 has been relatively quiet this season, but this matchup could provide the perfect opportunity for a spike game.
Check out my New York-Washington breakdown below, which includes my Giants vs. Commanders prediction.
Giants vs Commanders Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 11
Giants vs Commanders Prediction
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No quarterback has passed the ball more this year than Sam Howell. Through 10 games, his 397 passing attempts lead the league by a decent margin. Because of this volume, Howell is also the league leader in passing yards.
Howell has taken things up a notch, putting up three 300-plus passing yard games in the last three weeks. He also attempted at least 44 passes in each of those games.
The last time Howell failed to eclipse 300 yards was the last Giants-Commanders game in Week 7. In that game, Howell completed only 52.4% of his passes for 249 yards in a 14-7 defeat.
Despite the loss, Terry McLaurin was a bright spot in that game as he caught six passes for 90 yards. McLaurin started off the year slow, but his volume has been ticking up.
McLaurin was averaging 6.2 targets per game through the first five weeks; he is averaging 9.6 targets since. McLaurin had gone over this yardage total (59.5) in four straight games before putting up 33 yards on four catches last weekend against Seattle.
Based on PFF’s expected fantasy points projections, McLaurin has underperformed both yardage and touchdown totals this year. He has amassed 601 yards and two touchdowns compared to the 661.1 yards and 3.1 touchdowns that PFF's model anticipated.
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McLaurin’s 870 air yards this season rank as the 15th-most in the league and his 21.2% target share leads the team by 5.4% over Jahan Dotson. Howell has been spreading the ball, but McLaurin is still WR1.
The Giants defense ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Over the last six weeks, the Giants have allowed six receivers to get to at least 90 yards, including last week when both CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks eclipsed 150.
Using PFF’s WR/CB matchup tool, McLaurin’s projected matchups against the Giants grade out in the “good” category at 82.4. This projects as the eighth-best WR match of the week, signaling that his yardage prop should be higher.
This New York defense has struggled this season as it ranks 26th in dropback success rate allowed and 24th in EPA per dropback allowed. New York also ranks 27th in PFF coverage grade and 23rd in overall defensive grade.
Giants vs. Commanders
Betting Picks & Predictions
Washington has been throwing the ball a ton and New York’s defense shouldn’t provide much resistance. The Giants' quarterback struggles could also give Howell and the Commanders extra possessions.
McLaurin is still the alpha dog in Washington's receiving corps and I expect him to put up good enough numbers to easily go over his yardage total. I like taking McLaurin over 58.5 yards and would take this up to 65.5.
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