Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD props for the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Saturday, January 17.
If you plan to tail these NFL Divisional Round TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Divisional Round Saturday.
Bills vs. Broncos
The Broncos will be plenty fresh for the playoffs after having a first round bye, and while I usually like to dabble on long shots for Denver TD scorers, I can’t overlook how much they target WR Courtland Sutton.
Sutton finished the year with seven receiving TDs and tied WR Troy Franklin for the team lead in end-zone targets (11).
However, over the last five games, Franklin has taken a bit of a step back in his role, while Sutton has been seeing an elite target share, averaging 8.5 targets per game to go with seven end-zone targets and three receiving TDs.
Sutton is a goal-line threat and a deep threat, as no other Bronco has seen more than two deep targets in that five-game stretch, while Sutton has seen 11.
Another factor to consider is Sutton's role because he hasn’t been affected by the WR2 and WR3 rotations.
Rookie Pat Bryant has emerged, Marvin Mims is still in the rotation, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey might steal a few snaps away from Franklin as well.
We just saw the Bills allow two touchdowns to WRs vs. the Jaguars, and I think Sutton could score a TD regardless of game script.
If the Broncos are trailing, that means more pass attempts from QB Bo Nix, and if they’re leading, they’ll keep their foot on the pedal to negate any potential superhero comeback from QB Josh Allen.
The Bills' WR room is in shambles after the Wild Card matchup vs. the Jaguars, with both WR Tyrell Shavers and WR Gabe Davis going down with injury.
I know WR Keon Coleman has the best receiver metrics vs. man coverage for Bills WRs, but this week’s defensive front includes CB Patrick Surtain, so it might be tough to find value in Buffalo's outside receiving options.
That’s why I’m going to take a swing on TE Dawson Knox at +450.
Technically, his teammate TE Dalton Kincaid has better receiver metrics vs. man defense, but I expect the Broncos to rotate their coverage over to Kincaid, which could leave more targets to Knox near the end zone.
Knox had four touchdowns and led the Bills in red-zone targets and end-zone targets during the regular season.
Kincaid is showing value for me as well, and you could likely bet both since the Broncos pass defense ranks 18th in defensive DVOA vs. TEs with six TDs allowed to the position — but for this game, I’ll ride with Knox to score.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +210 | Dawson Knox +450
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49ers vs. Seahawks
I understand there’s no replacing 49ers TE George Kittle, but if there’s a solid one for one replacement in this offense, it’s Jake Tonges.
Tonges scored five TDs this season, and in the six games Kittle missed time, Tonges saw a huge uptick in targets.
What might be most surprising is Tonges actually led the 49ers in total routes run in those games, while ranking second on the team in targets-per-route-run and tied for the team lead in red-zone targets.
Even if you go all the way back to Week 1, when the Niners faced the Seahawks, Tonges ended up scoring a TD against this defense after Kittle left the game with injury.
The Seahawks defense is obviously a tough matchup, and we just watched them hold the Niners to only three points in a winner-take-all game in Week 18.
The only “weakness” worth targeting against the Seahawks, who rank first in defensive DVOA vs. the pass, is they’ve given up yardage and touchdowns to the TE position, while ranking bottom-five in targets, catches, and yards.
Sportsbooks have not made it easy on us when trying to find a Seahawks TD scorer. Just over 62% of all Seahawks offensive TD scorers this season has gone through WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or the running backs in Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker.
Now, facing a depleted 49ers defense, oddsmakers have no choice but to make all three at even odds or lower.
I considered QB Sam Darnold for a long shot, but after popping up on the injury report with an oblique injury, I’m doubtful we’ll see many scrambles inside the red zone. He only had six total carries inside the 20 all season.
Instead, I think we take a shot on WR Rashid Shaheed in this spot at +400.
The Seahawks traded for him during the season to be a big-play threat, and he’s a speedster that could take advantage of some 1-on-1 matchups if the 49ers sell out to stop JSN.
Another angle is the return game, as Shaheed is the Seahawks' kick returner, and Seattle ranked top-three during the regular season in yardage per return to go along with three touchdowns.
Verdict: Jake Tonges +350 | Rashid Shaheed +400
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