NFL Betting Trends: Home Underdogs Finish 5-1-1 for Week 9, Remain Profitable on the Season
Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images. Pictured: James Mitchell and Brock Wright of the Detroit Lions.
There has always been something about taking a home underdog in the NFL that is so enticing.
It can be scary to lay points on the road and it feels natural to bet the home underdog.
In 2022, betting on home dogs has been a money-making strategy.
In Week 9, they almost went 7-0.
The Lions were four-point underdogs to the Packers at home. They won outright.
As 10.5-point underdogs, the Jets beat the Bills outright.
The Jaguars were 2.5-point underdogs to the Raiders at home. They also won outright.
The Bears lost by three to the Dolphins, but they were four-point underdogs.
The Commanders lost by three to the Vikings, but they were consensus 3-point underdogs. On BetRivers, BetMGM and DraftKings, they were 3.5-point underdogs, which means Commanders bettors were cashing their tickets.
Flashback to Thursday and the Texans covered the spread as 14-point home underdogs.
The only home underdog that failed to cover (or push) the spread in Week 9 was the Falcons. They lost by three to the Chargers as 2.5-point dogs. However, the spread actually opened at seven before some injuries to the Chargers were announced.
Home underdogs went 5-1-1 (6-1 depending on where you bet) against the closing spread during Week 9. And a smart bettor could’ve easily gone 7-0.
Home pups have been a safe bet throughout the NFL season. They are 31-23-2 against the number in the 2022-23 season. That’s good enough for a 57.4% win percentage and 9.7% return on investment.
Here are the home underdogs to bet on rin Week 10:
Falcons vs. Panthers
Saints vs. Steelers
Best Odds: Steelers +3 (FanDuel, PointsBet and Caesars)
Cowboys vs. Packers
Best Odds: Packers +4.5 (DraftKings and FanDuel)