NFL Live Betting Week 10: How We’re Live Betting Thursday Night Football

With Justin Fields' return still (at least) a week away, Week 10's Thursday Night Football matchup is the bad rookie quarterback bowl. The Tyson Bagent-led Chicago Bears play host to the Carolina Panthers, whose No. 1 overall draft pick, Bryce Young, has been a relative disappointment all season.

Which makes this a tough one to break down, as an increase in pace doesn't necessarily mean an increase in points. Given how inefficient both offenses are likely to be, this could be an ugly contest regardless of pace or matchup considerations.

The Live Bets We're Targeting on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 10

Panthers at Bears: Unders — LIVE BET MADE, Under 42.5 (DraftKings)

Seven of the 13 points so far have been the result of a punt return for a touchdown, with neither team producing an offensive touchdown. That's caused the total to sneak up to 42.5, while simultaneously resulting in a scenario that should play both slower and less efficient. We'll make our pick early here, and jump on the under at 42.5, which is -120 at DraftKings.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff.

After opening as around six-point favorites when it looked like Fields would return, the Bears are now favored by roughly a field goal with Bagent back under center. Interestingly enough, we saw less movement to the total, which only dropped about a point to the current 38.5.

That's an interesting shift, as we'd expect the total and spread to diminish by the same amount — Bagent replacing Fields shouldn't raise the Panthers' odds of scoring, after all.

Coupled with the success rate of second half unders this season — 81-53 per Action Network director of research Evan Abrams — there are a lot of signs pointing us to the under being the sharp side here. That's at any point, including pregame as highlighted by Nick Giffen here, or for the first half, specifically as mentioned by Sean Koerner.

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Of course, there are a couple caveats to that live betting situation. First, we'd like to have a total that's equal to or above the pregame line before pulling the trigger. The big benefit of betting live is to get better numbers on what we're already expecting. We'll be extremely aggressive with pulling the trigger if this one rises at all, even in the first quarter.

The second exception would be if the Bears have a commanding lead, especially with a lowered total. Carolina has the league's worst rushing defense by DVOA, while Chicago is much worse against the pass at 30th than the run at seventh. All of which gives this one a slight hope for efficiency — and raises the expected pace.

Chicago plays a hair faster than league average when leading by multiple scores, while the Panthers are one of the fastest teams in the league while trailing (discounting those teams that have only had a few plays while behind by eight or more). All things considered, they should play nearly two seconds faster per play combined than an average matchup in this situation.

We'd still rather not take an over in this game if we can avoid it, so we'll be much pickier on this one. We'd need some sign of competence from the Panthers, a considerably lower total, and a score that lines up firmly with this scenario before going that route. Ideally with some red zone turnovers or fluky non-scoring situations thrown in for good measure.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.