Bears vs Panthers Odds, Pick & Prediction | Thursday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young (left) and DJ Moore.
Bears vs Panthers Odds, Pick & Prediction | Thursday Night Football
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +155 |
The latest Bears vs Panthers odds have Chicago favored by 3.5 points — three points on FanDuel — for Thursday Night Football. The over/under is 38 at most books, which is key to my Thursday Night Football betting prediction.
Chicago star quarterback Justin Fields will miss another week due to a dislocated thumb. Rookie Tyson Bagent will get another start under center; he'll be looking to improve after tossing multiple interceptions in back-to-back contests. The Bears will also be without Khalil Herbert (ankle). The running back logged three full practices in the lead up to Thursday Night Football but wasn't activated from the injured reserve.
Let's preview Carolina-Chicago in my Thursday Night Football betting preview and get to my Bears vs Panthers pick and prediction.
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When the Bears Have the Ball
Justin Fields’ return will likely have to wait another week. The dual-threat quarterback logged three limited practices in the leadup to TNF but is listed as doubtful with a right thumb injury. That sets up Tyson Bagent for his fourth straight start.
Bagent has struggled as Chicago’s starting quarterback. Here is where he ranks in three key metrics (among 40 QBs with at least 50 pass attempts):
- ANY/A: 37th
- QB Rating: 38th
- EPA/play: 36th
Basically, he’s a bottom-five quarterback.
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The Panthers defense is dealing with a handful of injuries — ED Brian Burns (concussion/elbow) and CB C.J. Henderson (concussion) have both been ruled out while safeties Xavier Woods (thigh) and Vonn Bell (quad) are questionable.
These injuries mainly impact the passing game, but given what we’ve seen from Bagent, I’m not optimistic he’ll be able to exploit them. The good news for the Bears is that they can lean on the run game as Carolina ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run.
I expect Chicago to feed D’Onta Foreman early and often, which will help shorten the game.
Bet Carolina vs. Chicago at FanDuel
When the Panthers Have the Ball
Just when it looked like Bryce Young might be turning the corner after leading the Panthers to a Week 8 win, he threw three interceptions (two of the pick-six variety) in an ugly loss to the Colts.
Here is where Young ranks in those three aforementioned key quarterback metrics (out of 40 qualified QBs):
- ANY/A: 38th
- QB Rating: 35th
- EPA/play: 37th
Based on his play to date, Young joins Bagent as one of the five worst QBs in the league.
The Bears have struggled against the pass – ranking 30th in DVOA vs. the pass – but Young’s pro resume to date doesn’t indicate that he’ll be able to take advantage.
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Panthers vs. Bears
Betting Picks & Predictions
All signs point to the under, and I'm betting that for a specific part of the game.
This game has a Luck Total rating of -6.8, which is the second lowest of the week. As I mentioned above, we've got two bottom-five quarterbacks in Tyson Bagent and Bryce Young, and both teams will likely want to lean on the running game in what should be a rare close game script.
Part of the low Luck Total rating is due to both teams being tied for last in red-zone TD% allowed at 75% each. While both defenses are below average, it’s unlikely they continue to allow touchdowns in the red zone at such a high rate. Two below-average offenses facing off could kickstart that regression.
While all signs indicate a play on the under, I'm specifically on the first half under 19.5 (+100; BetMGM). There are two reasons why I favor the first half under over the full game …
1) Both teams play at a slower pace in the first half.
- Bears' first-half pace: 30th; second half: 12th
- Panthers' first-half pace: 25th; second half: seventh
This is likely due to both teams routinely playing in trailing game scripts, which forces them to play at a faster pace and become more pass heavy.
This game should feature a more neutral game script (for both teams), especially early on, which will keep the pace/scoring environment lower.
2) If one of these teams were to build a lead of 1-2 scores, it's more likely to be the Bears, who are favored by 3.5 points.
In this scenario, both teams would begin to attack the opposition's defensive weaknesses even more. The Bears become more run heavy (Carolina is 32nd in DVOA vs. the run; 14th vs. the pass) and the Panthers become more pass heavy (Chicago is 30th in DVOA vs. the pass; 7th vs. the run.)
That could elevate the scoring environment in the second half. A neutral game script — or one where the Panthers are leading — favor the under. Therefore, I’m going to target the first-half under of 19.5.
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