Bears vs. Titans Odds & Picks: How To Find Betting Value On Sunday’s Game
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.
Bears vs. Titans Odds
A pair of 5-win teams meet up in Nashville as the Titans host the Bears.
This one will feature a strength-on-strength matchup as the Titans bring in an explosive offense behind Derrick Henry’s dominant rushing attack, while the Bears boast one of the NFL’s strongest defensive units. While many are excited to see that side of the ball, the game is likely going to be decided on the other side, between the Titans moveable defense and the Bears stoppable offense.
What can we expect from this intriguing matchup as pundits question each team’s legitimacy? Let’s take a closer look.
The Bears’ defense has kept their offense afloat to the halfway point of the season, but the cracks are starting to grow wider and wider with every Nick Foles snap.
Foles is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, highlighting to the Bears’ inability to drive the ball down field. Chicago’s offense is slow-progressing and Foles is struggling to string together component drives for the team. The team is 30th in yards per play, placing slightly ahead of the Football Team and Jets.
An inefficient offense that averages a near league-worst 3.81 yards per carry, Chicago can use some scheduling help.
This Titans defense should be a welcome sight for Bears players that can hopefully show out on offense for a full 60 minutes. The Titans are constantly being gashed by the run, which can hopefully generate some chances for David Montgomery, who has struggled to get into the second level of defenses.
The Titans allow a 56% success rate to opposing running backs and are allowing opponents to convert 61% of their third down tries. The Bears do struggle to generate long sustaining possessions, but with a Titans defense that can’t get off the field, the Bears may be due for a successful offensive showing.
This has been a shallow Bears receiving corps outside of stud Allen Robinson. He has a 24.8% target share this season, and this could be a game in which the rest of the pass catchers get going. Tennessee allows a successful pass 55% of the time, the second-worst mark in the league. But it is not to just one receiver — it is usually to a full unit. Last week against the Bengals, for example, the Titans allowed three receivers combine for 19 catches and 210 yards.
This could be a good spot for Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney to get going.
Looking at the other side of the field, the Titans offense is going to pit its potent offense against one of the league’s stingiest defenses in the Bears.
Tennessee leans on its bell cow running back Henry, who is starting to turn it up as the calendar flips to November. The big fella rushed for 6.2 yards per carry last Sunday in loss to Cincinnati and this Chicago defense, while strong, can be had by big rushing plays.
The Bears defense does a strong job of making up for the offense’s inefficiency. Chicago allows 4.9 yards per play (third-best in the NFL), but it is not all pretty: The Bears rank dead last in explosive run defense — that could be troubling against Henry’s violent ground attack.
The Bears are disciplined on defense and can shut down long-standing drives, but the Titans are capable of ripping off yards in bunches, which can put some serious distance on the scoreboards and could prove too much for Foles and the offense to make up, even if Tennessee’s defense is leaky.
If the Titans can pull out in front, they can control the clock and rely on Henry to push the team down field.
While the club won’t welcome back cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, it did bring in reinforcements for the secondary, trading for Desmond King before the deadline to provide some relief at corner.
Bears vs. Titans Pick
This is sure to be an interesting tentpole game for each team. The Bears are reeling and facing a bit of an identity crisis, while the Titans are trying to reaffirm the masses that they are part of the elite tier of the AFC.
With a spread hanging around the dead zone of Tennessee -5.5 to a more key number of -6.5, I don’t feel comfortable laying the number with the Titans. I make this spread about -5, and the Tennessee defense can let even a Foles-led offense hang around and stay inside the number.
However, I am comfortable teasing the Titans down inside of a point. There are plenty of teasers out there that go through the key numbers of 3 and 7 — I chose to tease the Titans with the Giants.
PICK: Tease Titans down inside of -1 (pair with the Giants +8.5 or Saints +10.5)