Eagles vs. Giants Odds & Picks: Bet the Under On Sunday
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Jones
Eagles vs. Giants Odds
Giants! Eagles! It’s another highly-anticipated battle for the top of the NFC East on FOX!
NFL bylaws mean that we have to pay attention to this game since we’re required to give a home playoff game to a team from the NFC East, and besides, the bookies have to pay off winning bets no matter who is playing.
The Eagles lead the division at 3-4-1. The Giants, sadly, are not far behind at 2-7. Of the teams’ five combined wins, four of them have come against fellow division opponents.
The teams played less than a month ago on a Thursday night with the Eagles squeaking out a 22-21 victory in a goofy game. Should we expect another low-scoring affair on Sunday?
The Eagles are coming off a two-game win streak and a badly-needed bye . Finally, they’re starting to get healthy after a tumultuous run of bad injury luck. For the first time all season, they actually grade out better than their opponent on Pro Football Doc’s Injury Index. Offensive linemen Lane Johnson and Isaac Seumalo are expected back, as are running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.
Most importantly, the Eagles’ defense is pretty healthy — the unit has kept their season alive. They rank 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and should only improve as they get healthier.
If the Eagles win this one and get to 4-4-1, they could really start to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC East. And they really need this one, too — after this matchup, they’ll face five straight playoff contenders: The Browns, Seahawks, Packers, Saints and Cardinals.
The Eagles may be in a good position within the division, but they actually rank last among NFC East teams in overall DVOA. They’re not particularly good, though they should be better with a healthier team.
This could be a get-right game for Philly. And while they’re worse than .500, they’re also 2-1 in NFC East games and are clearly the better team here. But that was the case a month ago, too, and they still needed a pair of late touchdown drives to save the season.
New York Giants
The Giants are not good.
They’re not particularly good at anything, really. The offense is missing its best playmaker in Saquon Barkley. And like Philadelphia, the defense has been the better unit for New York this season, keeping the Giants afloat while they wait and hope for any signs of life on offense.
New York is a deserving 2-7, but the Giants are also 2-2 against NFC East foes, and those games have come down to 3-, 1-, 1- and 3-point margins. In fact, the Giants have played in seven one-score games already. They have a knack for uglying the game up and keeping it close — and just as much of a knack for losing it late.
The Eagles have won eight games in a row against the Giants, but six of those wins came by one score — and one was that 22-21 final last month, which may not have been as close as it looked. The Eagles had the ball in the red zone an incredible eight times, and two of the Giants’ three touchdowns came because of broken plays, including that 80-yard Daniel Jones run when he got tackled by the turf monster.
The one thing these teams have in common (outside of playing in the NFL’s junior division) is that they both struggle to score in a huge way.
Philadelphia has yet to score 30 points this season and averages 23.3 points per game. New York, meanwhile, has topped 23 points only once all season. When the scoring is so hard to come by, a four-point spread is higher than it seems.
In games these two teams have played against NFC East opponents, the under this year is 6-1 — these are ugly, awful, close, low-scoring games.
The Eagles are the better and healthier team and should find a way to win, but they’ve been leaving things close late. I’m certainly not taking Philly in any survivor leagues, and I prefer New York to cover with the line above the field goal.
The under feels like the better play — it’s a bet on two decent defenses, a bet against bad offenses, and a bet on bad NFC East football.
This game should be close and ugly late, and you just know it’s going to come down to Carson Wentz or Jones needing to make a big play late. Do you really want your money riding on that outcome?
Take the under and root for awful. After all, “awful” has been the best NFC East bet all season.
PICK: Under 44.5