NFL Week 11 Expert Picks: Late Slate Predictions for Raiders vs Broncos, Bengals vs Steelers, More
Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: T.J. Watt.
NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: Both teams have had embarrassing seasons and fallen well short of expectations, but the Raiders should have the edge in this game due to the Broncos’ injury issues on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos are last in scoring offense (14.6 points per game) but first in scoring defense (16.6). Their worst defensive game of the year came against the Raiders, who put up 25 points (excluding Amik Robertson’s fumble return TD) and 385 yards on a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 19 points or 307 yards in any other game.
Josh Jacobs and company piled up 207 yards on the ground, while Davante Adams posted 101 yards on nine receptions. The normally reliable Patrick Surtain allowed 54 yards to Adams and 60 yards total, nearly double his high of 35 yards allowed in all other games.
That performance came despite having the services of a number of key players who won’t be available in the rematch:
- DE Randy Gregory (IR; knee): 46 snaps; 5 pressures; 73.6 PFF grade (second on team, min. 10 snaps)
- DE Bradley Chubb (traded): 53 snaps; 2 pressures; 1 pass breakup; 71.4 PFF grade (third on team)
- LB Jonas Griffith (IR; ankle): 47 snaps; 6 tackles
- CB K’Waun Williams (out; knee): 49 snaps; 1 sack; 68.6 PFF grade (fourth on team)
- CB Ronald Darby (IR; ACL): 75 snaps; 1 reception for 13 yards allowed on 40 snaps in coverage
- S Caden Stearns (IR; hip): 75 snaps; 5 tackles; 1 reception for 8 yards allowed on 40 snaps in coverage
Denver’s league-worst offense also isn’t in good shape:
- WR Jerry Jeudy (out; ankle): 4 receptions, 53 yards, 1 TD
- WR K.J. Hamler (out; hamstring): 1 reception, 55 yards
- LT Garrett Bolles (IR; leg): 0 sacks; 0 pressures on 36 pass-blocking snaps
- C Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR; groin): 0 sacks; 1 pressure on 36 pass-blocking snaps
- RB Javonte Williams (IR; ACL): 10 touches, 27 yards
- RB Mike Boone (IR; ankle): 4 touches, 29 yards
- FB Andrew Beck (out; hamstring): 12 snaps, 10 as lead-blocker in run game
The main thing the Broncos have going for them is home-field advantage, but even that may not be as valuable as usual. The Raiders could use a game away from home after an embarrassing loss to the Colts in interim coach Jeff Saturday's first game, while the Broncos home crowd will be eager to unleash boos on the offense at the first sight of a misstep.
It’s also worth noting that Derek Carr has owned the Broncos. He’s 8-2 straight up against them in his last 10 starts, with both losses coming by a single point. The last time Carr lost to the Broncos by more than one was on Oct. 1, 2017.
This time of year has historically seen the market undervalue road underdogs who have been average or worse against the spread.
Per our Action Labs data, road dogs with an ATS winning percentage of .500 or below who have opened at +2.5 or higher in Weeks 10-11 have gone 116-61-5 (66%) ATS since 2005, covering by 3.6 points per game.
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Chris Raybon: The presence of T.J. Watt makes the Steelers a live dog against pretty much any opponent.
- With Watt (two games): 15 points allowed; 309 yards allowed; 4.5 sacks; 3 interceptions
- Without Watt (seven games): 25.3 points allowed; 389.9 yards allowed; 1.1 sacks; 0.6 interceptions
Joe Burrow targeted Ja’Marr Chase (out; hip) 16 times for 129 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these two teams. In his career against Pittsburgh, Burrow is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt and a 12.5% TD rate to Chase vs. 6.7 yards per attempt and a 4.2% TD rate to everyone else.
With Watt back and Chase out, the Steelers are capable of mucking up this game and allowing their offense to hang around. Pittsburgh's offense showed encouraging signs coming off the bye last week, registering season highs in total yards (379) and rushing yards (217) while punting only three times.
The Steelers routinely play above their head in these types of spots. Per our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 48-26-3 (65%) as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, covering by 2.1 points.
That includes a 15-3-3 (83%) mark as a home dog under Tomlin, covering by 6.5 points per game.
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Chris Raybon: Harris has at least 14 carries in six of nine games, including a season-high 20 last week. He’s averaging 14.2 carries per game with a median of 15.
However, his share of designed runs had been trending down in favor of Jaylen Warren; Harris has a 52% share over his last two games compared to a 71% share in his first seven.
Ian Rapoport reported the Steelers want to give Harris the bulk of the carries against the Bengals, so he is a good bet to return to his early season share in the 65-70% range, which would project him for roughly 15 rushes. His true odds of going over 12.5 are closer to -200.
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Chris Raybon: This line is a bit of an overreaction to the T.J. Hockenson trade.
There is still plenty of volume to go around as the Vikings are fifth in pass attempts (39.7) and sixth in completions (25.6) per game. I’m projecting Thielen to lose 0.5 receptions off his season average (4.8) due to Hockenson, giving him an updated baseline of 4.3, which is also what I’m projecting for him in this matchup.
That may end up being conservative given Thielen matches up well here. The Cowboys play zone coverage at the third-highest rate, and Thielen is averaging 0.124 receptions per route versus zone compared to 0.091 against man.
Thielen typically lines up split out to the right side of the formation, which means he will match up most often against left corner Anthony Brown and least against right corner Trevon Diggs. Brown averages 8.4 coverage snaps per reception allowed, while Diggs is averages 11.7.
Thielen’s average route participation rate is 96%, and he hasn’t dipped below 93% in any game. He has no drops thus far and has dropped only 1.8% of his catchable targets since the start of last season.
He has at least four receptions in seven of his nine games this season, and I have him going over 62% of the time.
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