Jets vs. Chargers Odds & Picks: How to Bet the Lowest Total of Week 11
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert (left) and Keenan Allen.
Jets vs. Chargers Odds
After squandering their best opportunity two Mondays ago against the New England Patriots in the final minutes, the New York Jets remain winless.
However, Sunday presents another opportunity for Gang Green to get in the win column as they travel out West to take on the Chargers — losers of their last three and whose season is quickly heading for the gutter.
Can the Jets get off the schneid and grab win No. 1 of 2020 with Joe Flacco under center, or will they move to 0-10?
New York Jets
While the loss to New England is another blemish on a long list of blunders this season, the Jets did show some signs of competence. The underlying cause to their success in that one was not Flacco’s play at quarterback, but the return of the team’s full depth chart at receiver.
Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims have all battled injuries this season but all started in that Monday Night Football matchup, and the Jets were able to move the ball against the Patriots defense throughout the game.
While it will be nice for Flacco to have professional pass catchers out there, the Jets are going to need to attack this Chargers defense on the ground.
L.A. has allowed more than 100 rushing yards over each of its past four games. Behind the veteran Frank Gore, the Jets should look to establish the run early and set up some favorable situations for Flacco.
The game script can play out favorably for New York in this one. If Flacco avoids throwing to the opposition, the Jets can control the field and try and shorten the game. L.A. has the fourth-fewest takeaways this season, so Flacco should be able to maintain possession.
With a clear advantage in the Jets’ ability to get going on the ground, whether explosive or not, this can keep Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense on the sideline for as long as possible and shorten the game a bit.
Los Angeles Chargers
Even though the record is disappointing, Justin Herbert has cemented himself as a future star in the NFL. The rookie out of Oregon is completing more than 66% of his passes and has a 19-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio through eight starts.
Herbert ranks in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt, which signals he is already moving the ball downfield with his strong group of receivers. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry have all established chemistry with their quarterback already, and the Chargers offense has been able to keep its team in games despite the poor record.
The Bolts’ average margin of defeat is 4.5 points per game. To me, that highlights a sign of poor coaching late in games. To go 2-7 with that slim margin of defeat shows that the team is struggling to get over the hump, but it also says that the Chargers are always in close games.
Considering the Chargers have played both good and bad teams, we can surmise that the Chargers play up to their competition (as seen by an overtime loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football last month) and play down to their competition (blowing a 21-point second-half lead to the lowly Broncos).
The Chargers do get Joey Bosa back, which should help a team that can use another pass rusher and Bosa is the glue to that front seven, posting 4.5 sacks in seven games this season.
The Chargers defense does not generate many turnovers, and struggles to slow down the rush, but is matched up against the lowly Jets. This is a gut check for a Chargers team that is getting its best defensive player back.
I make this spread -11 but can’t possibly lay that number with a Chargers club that is constantly playing one-score games. I am inclined to bet the Jets, but I also can’t in this spot with Adam Gase as the coach — Gase is 4-13 as a road underdog with the spread a touchdown or greater.
The Chargers have played six straight over games, while the Jets are coming off a surprisingly high-scoring affair against the Patriots.
While bettors expect the Jets to be a classic under team because of a bad offense, the team is just 5-4 to the under this season. With a total 45.5, I’ll play the over.
If there is any time for the Jets to show an ounce of motivation, it is off of a bye with maximum time to prepare and maybe work in some quick-hitting plays to hit a Chargers defense that is bleeding points.
PICK: Over 45.5 (up to 47.5)