NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Aaron Rodgers, DeVante Parker, More Week 11 Player Props
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamison Crowder.
- NFL prop bets offer some of the best values on the board each week-- especially for the main Week 11 slate.
- Find 19 (!) player props worth betting this Sunday below, complete with how and where to bet them.
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 77-57 (57.5%) so far and has a 287-213-5 (57.4%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his prop bets for Sunday’s main Week 11 slate below.
NFL Prop Picks & Bets
Browns QB Baker Mayfield Under 9.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Rushing props for a pocket passer like Baker can always be deceiving.
Browns TE Austin Hooper Over 2.5 Receptions (-129)
Hooper only went 1/11/0 in his return but ran a route on 82% of dropbacks. A lot of that was due to the high winds last week, but we should expect much higher production going forward with that amount of playing time.
Eagles WR Greg Ward Under 33.5 Rec Yards (-130)
With Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery returning to the lineup, it would force one of the Eagles’ WRs to take a back seat. That WR appears to be Ward, who saw his routes run per dropback fall from the 85-90% range to 56% last week. It will only go down as Jeffery increases his playing time over the coming weeks.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson Under 5.5 Rec (-130) & Under 63.5 Rec Yards (-106)
I’m doubling down on Diontae’s reception and yard unders here.
The Jaguars are unlikely to score enough points for the Steelers to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters. Look for Pittsburgh to get their running game on track this week, and I think it’s unlikely we see JuJu Smith-Schuster, Johnson and Chase Claypool all exceed expectations in limited volume. Diontae’s props seem a bit inflated here.
Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert Under 27.5 Rec Yards (-106)
Yes, James O’Shaughnessy is out this week. No, I do not think that will lead to Eifert putting up 28+ yards.
Eifert ran a route on 74% of dropbacks last week, which is probably his ceiling at this point in his career, and only put up 2/15/0 against the Packers. He’s not going to fare any better against the Steelers. Expect Ben Ellefson and Tyler Davis to chip in for O’Shaughnessy and Eifert to have pretty much the same role here.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Under 288.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The Colts’ defense has been elite against both the pass (fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and the run (fourth). It will be a tough test for Rodgers and the Packers.
Packers RB Jamaal Williams Over 13.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Tyler Ervin is out this week, which only raises Jamaal’s floor in terms of receiving yards. He should see 40-50% routes run per dropback, which is more than enough usage for him to post 2+ catches and clear this number.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow under 282.5 Pass Yards (+105)
Bengals WR Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions (+106)
As I pointed out in the Burrow prop, I don’t expect the Bengals to fall behind and get into a pass-heavy game script we have seen at times this year. To be clear, I still love Higgins as a high-end WR2 in fantasy due to his yardage and TD potential, 5.5 receptions feels a bit steep.
Washington WR Steven Sims Over 25.5 Rec Yards (-110) & Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
I expect Sims’ playing time to increase as we advance, and he’s the type of receiver Alex Smith loves to target. I would bet this up to 28.5, but if Dontrelle Inman or Isaiah Wright is ruled out, I would bet it up to 32.5. If both are ruled out? It would be my play of the day.
Chargers WR Jalen Guyton Under 34.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Guyton is a player with a wide range of outcomes. This number is way too high most weeks, but especially in a matchup where the Chargers are favored by 9.5 points. I don’t see them needing to take many deep shots for him to see enough targets to get here.
Jets TE Chris Herndon Under 15.5 Rec Yards (-106)
I love the fact that a book is willing to take action against Herndon right now. His playing time has hit rock bottom with a 38% routes run per dropback last week. It’s just not going to happen for Herndon this season, but hopefully he will play up to his potential in the post-Adam Gase era.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder Over 54.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Saints WR Michael Thomas Under 68.5 Rec Yards (-141)
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker Over 51.5 Rec Yards (-110)
It’s a great time to buy low on Parker here. He’s been getting the underlying usage to clear this number but has yet to click with Tua under center.
Patriots RB Rex Burkhead Over 9.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 59.5 Rec Yards (-115)
While I miss the days of us being able to get his prop at 17.5, the market has yet to treat Jefferson as the elite wideout he is.
I think Dallas can keep this game competitive enough to keep the Vikings’ passing volume at a high enough level for JJ to see plenty of targets.