Jets vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions: Trust the Biggest Favorite of NFL Week 18 To Cover Sunday’s Spread?
Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
- The Bills should win their NFL Week 18 matchup, but can they really cover a spread this high against a Jets team that has been taking off lately?
- The spread has shifted since yesterday, but it's still within our analyst's range to bet. Find his pick for this game below.
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
The Bills are hoping to lock up the AFC East title with a season sweep of the New York Jets in Week 18. Buffalo can move to 11-6 and win a second consecutive division title after the Patriots’ 11-year dominance.
The Jets, meanwhile, are looking to play spoiler on the road against their rivals, a role they have embraced this season. New York has impressive wins over Tennessee and Cincinnati, and it performed valiantly in a 28-24 loss to Tampa Bay last week.
Will this be a Buffalo blowout coronation, or will the Jets show fight yet again against a superior opponent?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jets vs. Bills Injury Report
- WR Braxton Berrios (quad): Doubtful
- DE Efe Obada (ankle): Out
- WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee): Doubtful
Jets vs. Bills Matchup
|Jets Offense||DVOA Rank||Bills Defense|
|Jets Defense||DVOA Rank||Bills Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Expect Improved Jets Performance
New York has been a fairly competitive team all season. Despite being a young team with minimal talent, the Jets have covered three consecutive games.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has four total touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two games, which includes the overall fantasy QB2 stat line in Week 16. Next to Wilson will be dynamic running back Michael Carter, who was cleared to play on Friday after suffering a concussion against Tampa Bay.
The likely loss of Braxton Berrios will hurt the passing game, but the return of veteran Jamison Crowder provides the exact same short/intermediate target for Wilson. The Bills do not create elite pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking just 19th in sacks per game, tied (ironically) with the Jets.
In their first meeting this year, the Jets were pummeled 45-17. However, that game was greatly affected by New York quarterback Mike White’s four interceptions. That score is certainly misleading, and Wilson is unlikely to replicate that kind of awful performance. The Jets turned the ball over five times in that game, which would be an incredible feat to accomplish again.
New York’s defense was very active, with two sacks, an interception and forced fumble against the Bills. I expect a strong performance, even against a Bills team that is looking to lock up the division title.
Can Bills Cover Monster Spread?
Buffalo’s offensive attack is explosive, but will it cover a spread of more than two touchdowns? The Bills are 8-6-2 against the spread (ATS) but just 3-3-2 at home. In fact, Buffalo is just 4-7 against the number in its last 11 games this season.
The Bills offense has certainly been cooking, scoring 27 or more points in each of its past four games. However, quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to turnovers at a much higher rate than last season. Allen threw three interceptions last week against a below-average Atlanta team at home and has 15 interceptions on the year. Last year, in a 16-game season, Allen threw just 10.
Defensively, Buffalo brings a solid scheme-based system to the table that is strong in yards and points allowed per game. However, the Bills can be attacked on the ground, with both Atlanta (4.4 yards per carry) and New England (5.5) finding success on the ground against them.
In short, I project the Bills to win this game, but the 16 points is too much given their inconsistency on offense.
Jets vs. Bills Predictions
I’m backing the Jets with this big number against the Bills. I understand Buffalo has everything to play for, but will it keep pushing the score and risking injury after the result is no longer in doubt?
Buffalo is just 1-2-2 ATS at home in their last five games as a favorite. That includes failing to cover big spreads against Atlanta, Miami and Indianapolis.
It will be a division-clinching day in Buffalo on Sunday, but not by 17 or more points.
Pick: Jets +16.5 | Bet to: +15.5
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