NFL Player Props: Conference Championship Best Bets (Jan. 28, Sunday)
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Brock Purdy.
NFL Player Props: Conference Championship Best Bets (Jan. 28, Sunday)
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lamar Jackson Props
Baltimore unleashed Lamar Jackson in the run game against the Texans more than it had most of the season, and I expect that to be a continuing theme against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season.
You might think that the over for the game total and Jackson's pass yards under are inversely correlated, but the Ravens will run the ball and do it efficiently while playing from ahead. Thus, I like the under for Jackson's passing yards line.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Oddsmakers across all major sportsbooks have listed Jackson's passing attempts prop below 30 for good reason. The Ravens are going to feature a heavy dose of their rushing attack that, which is what the Chiefs defense has struggled most to defend this season.
In the three career games in which Jackson has faced Steve Spagnuolo's defense, he's averaged 78.6 rushing yards. After the success that the Bills had on the ground against the Chiefs, it'd be shocking to see the Ravens not lean heavily into the run game as four-point favorites.
The other angle to this position on Jackson's passing yards is obviously how well the Chiefs' pass defense has played. K.C. limited Josh Allen to just 3.8 yards per attempt on 20 passes thrown in the second half.
During the regular season, the Chiefs caused 18% of all passes against them to be deemed off target, which ranked eighth best in the NFL. When adjusted for sacks, this defense allowed only 4.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (fifth). Both Tua Tagovailoa and Allen attempted exactly 39 passes against the Chiefs over these last two playoff games, yet neither reached 200 passing yards, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt.
If the rain becomes a hindrance in ball-handling on Sunday, it'll only increase the likelihood of the Ravens taking the air out of the ball. I'd bet this down to 209.5.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Patrick Mahomes Props
By Tony Sartori
It's a tough proposition placing a bet that fades this generation's best quarterback, but that is why we are catching such a great price on this under!
Patrick Mahomes is obviously on pace to be one of the all-time greats and could throw for four touchdowns and nobody would bat an eye, but he is going to be in for a tough matchup against a tremendous Baltimore defense.
The Ravens ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Their underlying metrics are even more impressive, ranking first in expected points contributed by passing defense.
The trends are also in our favor, considering that Mahomes has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in five of his last seven games. Baltimore's defense has also not allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of its last five games.
We are catching a particularly good price in Mahomes under 1.5 TD Passes at +100 via DraftKings, a number that is two-to-20 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing. I would take this line up to -105.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
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Rashee Rice Props
Rice has separated himself from the pack and has become the Chiefs' go-to wide receiver. He's hit the over at this number in six of his last eight games, with one of those unders coming in the Chiefs' win over the Bills — Patrick Mahomes only threw the ball 23 times but Rice still had four targets.
The matchup isn't a great one for Rice against the Ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL against both the run and pass, so the Chiefs will likely still pass the ball a decent amount.
So far in the playoffs, Rice has more targets than all other Chiefs WRs combined. While Mahomes throws the ball a lot to his TEs and RBs, he has shown over and over that he will look to Rice early and often, not to mention that Rice is a legit deep threat.
With the Chiefs being a 4.5-point 'dog and the Ravens generally getting out to early leads, the game script is setting up for Mahomes to have to throw plenty. I would hit this line all the way to 65.5.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
By Billy Ward
Data on which team won the opening coin toss and what they chose to do with that win — kick or receive — are frustratingly hard to come by in the NFL. With that said, as a longtime Lions fan, I couldn’t help but notice something in the playoffs.
In both games so far, Detroit won the opening coin toss. Most coaches choose to defer possession to the start of the second half – but not Dan Campbell. The uber-aggressive Campbell has chosen to receive the opening kick in both Lions playoff games, which has led to Detroit scoring first in both games — though not on the opening drive in one of the two.
Assuming the 49ers continue to go with the more traditional option of kicking off, that nearly guarantees Detroit gets the first crack at possession. While that doesn’t mean they’ll score against a tough 49ers defense, it’s enough that +120 on them scoring first is a strong bet.
For what it’s worth, San Francisco allowed Green Bay to score on the opening drive last week, and Detroit has a far more dangerous offense.
Pick: Lions To Score First (+120)
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Brock Purdy Props
By Ricky Henne
A pass defense that was a sieve throughout the regular season — allowing the third-most yards per game (245.8) — continues to be picked apart in the postseason.
Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards in the Wild Card Round while Baker Mayfield carved the Lions up for 349 in the Divisional Round. It continues a troubling trend that plagued the team all season, particularly down the stretch. Detroit gave up 411 yards to Nick Mullens in Week 16 and 396 in Week 18, with a 345-yard performance by Dak Prescott sandwiched in between.
Now Detroit has to deal with a 49ers passing attack that ranked first in DVOA during the regular season. Brock Purdy was shaky last week, but the elements likely played a part as he’s struggled in similar conditions in the past. Fortunately for the 49ers, the forecast currently calls for sunny skies with a temperature in the 70s.
A variable here is the status of Deebo Samuel. San Francisco’s success with him in the lineup compared to without is well documented. This number appears to be easily attainable even if Samuel weren't active.
Purdy hasn’t hit this number since a 368-yard performance against the Seahawks. However, this is a bet against Detroit more than fully believing in Purdy. Quarterbacks have simply been too profitable against the Lions of late for me to not take a stab at it, even if I have concerns.
This bet has been offered as low as 274.5 and as high as 279.5, so be sure to shop around. Personally, I wouldn’t take it much higher than 279.5.
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Jared Goff Props
We haven't had to experience it much this season since Jared Goff played indoors for the vast majority of his games, but he is an entirely different quarterback outdoors.
Goff has only played five games outside this season, and he has hit this under three times. Looking back to last season, the numbers are drastically worse, with Goff only hitting the over three times in his last 10 games played outside.
The matchup for Detroit is not one that really lends itself to the pass. The 49ers have one of the top pass defenses, ranking in the top four in pass DVOA but near the middle of the pack in run defense, so we can safely assume that the Lions are going to be leaning on the ground game.
This line should be at least 10 yards lower, and I would hit it all the way down to 250.5.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jahmyr Gibbs Props
I've had a hard time figuring out whether Detroit will score in this game. San Francisco's defense is a bit overrated by the numbers, and Ben Johnson's schemes are a mismatch against Steve Wilks'. But Detroit's offense isn't particularly healthy and has laid eggs at times, not to mention I don't trust Jared Goff outdoors.
Detroit should definitely find success on the ground, though. The 49ers were league average against the run this season and worse late. They were actually pretty good up the middle, where Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw can clean up, but struggled mightily on runs outside the tackles.
That's why I expect this to be a Jahmyr Gibbs game, not a David Montgomery one. Gibbs is the lightning to Montgomery's thunder. His speed is electric and he can bust a long run at any time. Even though his touches haven't always been consistent this season, Gibbs has at least one 14-yard run in 13-of-17 games (76%), with a median longest rush of 21 yards.
This line is too low. I don't trust the touches or game script enough to play yards overs or escalators, but I don't mind them if you disagree with my read on the game.
If you think Detroit wins, you'll probably need some help by way of San Francisco mistakes, most likely from Brock Purdy. He's thrown nine interceptions in San Francisco's four losses, with multiple picks in all but one. Purdy is +105 to throw at least one pick and +500 at bet365 to throw two.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
Deebo Samuel Props
By Tony Sartori
I was waiting for Deebo Samuel to get the clearance to play to place this wager, but I was itching for the chance after Detroit cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson had this to say about the receiver: "I can guard you. You can't run routes, you're a running back".
Gardner-Johnson gave unnecessary bulletin-board material to Samuel and the 49ers, something you just don't do unprovoked. San Francisco is clearly the better team, and now Gardner-Johnson has lit a fire under its offense, or at least the very talented Samuel, for absolutely no reason.
But I will give Gardner-Johnson credit for one thing: he wasn't wrong that Samuel is also a running back. Even if Samuel doesn't score through the air, he is a threat to score on the ground, which could come to fruition in this matchup against a Detroit defense that finished 20th in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed per game.
We are catching a good number because Samuel has been dealing with injuries, but this is still a guy who has scored six touchdowns over his last seven games. He's only faced Detroit once in his career, but in that game he hauled in nine catches for 189 yards and a touchdown.
At the time of this writing, the best number is +125 at Caesars, a line that is five-to-38 cents longer than the rest of the market. I would play this number to +115.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+125)
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