Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 39-21 (65%) so far and has a 236-166-5 (58.7%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Find his pick for the Monday Night Football showdown between the Falcons and Packers below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.
NFL Prop Bet: Falcons vs. Packers
- The Pick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 61.5 Rec Yards (-112)
- Bet Now: BetMGM
Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are both out tonight, which should make Marquez Valdes-Scantling the Packers' top target against the Falcons.
MVS is a very tricky player to project, which could be why some sportsbooks haven't posted a line for this receiving yards as of writing. He currently leads the NFL with 18.4 average targeted air yards and his target share of 32% ranks 14th in the league, so it's a unique blend of him being targeted deep and fairly regularly.
What complicates projecting him are his wide range of potential outcomes: Rodgers will either target MVS with one to two more deep balls than most weeks (when Adams and Lazard are active), or the Packers could alter Valdes-Scantling's route tree so he sees more targets underneath, in which case we'll need to hope he can generate some yards after the catch.
Either way, he has massive upside.
MVS is due for some positive regressions in catch rate: His 47% rate is one of the worst in the league, especially considering 65% of his targets have been on target or catchable. Much of his low rate has to do with his three drops — his 27.3% drop rate is second-worst among all players with at least 15 targets this season. But he had a career drop rate of 6.2% heading into 2020, so it's not like this is an issue we should expect to continue.
Being Rodgers' top target against a defense prone to giving up big plays should bode well for MVS tonight. Here's a quick snapshot of how wide receivers have performed against Atlanta so far this season:
- Allen Robinson: 10 receptions, 123 yards, 1 TD
- CeeDee Lamb: 6 receptions, 106 yards
- Amari Cooper: 6 receptions, 100 yards
- Michael Gallup: 2 receptions, 58 yards
- D.K. Metcalf: 4 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD
- Tyler Lockett: 8, receptions, 92 yards
This is a lofty number, but I love the various paths MVS has to reach 62 or more yards tonight. Look for Rodgers to attempt to draw Atlanta offsides all night, and when he does, his free play deep shot(s) will likely go to MVS.
Here are the projected chances of MVS going over or under various yardages based on my player prop simulations:
