NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Picks | Conference Championships
Action Network Design Team. Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce (left) and Sam LaPorta.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Picks | Conference Championships
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for the NFL Conference Championship Round.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| Chiefs vs. Ravens |
| Lions vs. 49ers |
The Chiefs showed the world they are still a postseason juggernaut by defeating the Bills yet again. We might be misguided by their offensive struggles during the regular season, but with Patrick Mahomes, all touchdown bets are live — even against the top-rated defense in the NFL.
We can start with the fact that Travis Kelce finally woke up and scored twice against Buffalo. The Bills had only allowed three TDs to tight ends all season — similar to the Ravens, who also only allowed three. Although he hasn’t looked quite like his prime self, Kelce can still turn it on and is a matchup nightmare for any defense. Given that he’ll likely see close to 10 targets, not to mention his playoff pedigree (16 TDs in 14 playoff games from 2019-2023), there’s no shame in taking Kelce at +130.
Now, this one is likely going to have people rolling their eyes, but I love Mahomes to score. The tricky part is “guessing” when Mahomes wants to use his athleticism to make plays.
We know he can do it. He’s scored five rushing TDs in 16 career playoff games (31%), which would mean if we just used his playoff history, his odds should be closer to +250 based on implied probability. However, we’re seeing odds closer to +600 against Baltimore despite not having odds over +400 all season.
Here are two reasons why:
- The Ravens' run defense is stout and has only allowed one quarterback (Deshaun Watson) to rush for a TD this season while also giving up the fewest rushing TDs in 2023 (six). The latter is also the main reason why I’m not high on Isiah Pacheco at +135.
- Mahomes didn’t run for a TD during the regular season and he hasn’t logged a rushing score in the postseason in over two years. That being said, Mahomes led the NFL in scramble rate (running the ball on broken plays designed as a pass) and had a career high in carries this season. If I’m taking any Chiefs longshot, my list starts and ends with Mahomes at +600.
Verdict: Bet Travis Kelce (+130; bet365) and bet Patrick Mahomes (+650; FanDuel).
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To say I’m sour that Gus Edwards didn’t score last week would be an understatement. The bruising back was the bellcow for the Ravens in the second half of the season, but it was the Lamar Jackson show against the Texans.
Jackson was clearly saving his legs for the playoffs. He hadn’t scored on the ground since Week 7 but scored twice in the Wild Card game, which is why picking a Ravens RB is a tough endeavor. I can make a case for nearly every RB on the team which means none really have a strong case.
If you have to choose one, however, I'd go with Justice Hill at +333. We’ve seen Hill outsnap Edwards in three of the last four games, and he will be out there for passing downs over Edwards. Josh Allen and the Bills showed everyone can run on the Chiefs. K.C. ranked 27th in DVOA against the run during the regular season and gave up almost 200 yards on the ground in the Divisional Round.
A rusher is definitely scoring for the Ravens. That’s the easy part — choosing which one is almost luck at this stage.
The best option may be to take long-shot bets like Nelson Agholor at +700 or Isaiah Likely at +400. Agholor leads the Ravens with five TDs against man coverage — the Chiefs play man at a top-five rate.
Likely could be a bit of a reach with Mark Andrews expected to return, but to jump from +200 to +400 seems like a bit of an overreaction, especially since we’ve seen Likely have so much success (six TDs in the last six games).
Verdict: Bet Isaiah Likely (+425; PointsBet) and Nelson Agholor (+700; FanDuel).
A lot will be made of Jared Goff playing on the road and how his numbers dip when playing outdoors. Of course, there’s plenty of data to support this, but the main pushback I’d have is this game will be played in the Bay Area.
Goff, who played collegiate ball at U.C. Berkeley, and the Lions won’t be subject to cold temperatures and a freezing football, which means we can’t grade the offense based on how it fared when playing in cities like Chicago or Green Bay.
That being said, Goff requires time to throw and this game will come down to whether his offensive line can protect him. Easier said than done, but we saw last week that while the 49ers were able to generate some pressure against the Packers, they still couldn’t get to Jordan Love. San Francisco ultimately finished with no sacks.
I wrote about this on Monday, but we need to be seriously considering rookie Sam LaPorta to score. He’s around +225 and my cutoff to bet him is +200 or better.
The rookie led all TEs in TDs during the regular season and was fifth in receiving yards. Even with a balky knee brace, he’s still been very productive with 12 catches and one TD through two playoff games. Goff has repeatedly looked for him in the red zone with five targets inside the 20 combined against the Rams and Buccaneers.
The 49ers' pass defense is strong (fourth in DVOA), but we’ve seen in the playoffs that those strengths become less pronounced and emphatic as the level of competition increases. Love and the Packers had five red-zone trips but only managed two passing TDs, with one going to TE Tucker Kraft. The Lions were second in the NFL in red-zone TD % during the regular season (63%) (behind the 49ers), so I expect Detroit to be much more efficient on that side of the field.
Another angle would be to keep betting on David Montgomery at +170. I know he didn’t score last week, but he still had two goal-line carries and has a TD in 12-of-16 games played this season (including the playoffs).
He’s had minus odds to score in 14-of-16 games if you include the postseason. If the Lions get within the 10-yard line, they’ve been pretty predictable by giving Montgomery goal-line carries. If that doesn't work, we usually see Goff target LaPorta.
Verdict: Bet David Montgomery (+175; FanDuel) and Bet Sam LaPorta (+225; bet365).
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Much like last week, sportsbooks aren’t going to give you much value at the top for 49ers TD Scorers. Christian McCaffrey is still around -300 while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are +120 at best. All three will definitely see their fair share of looks, but if Deebo Samuel is limited, it just adds a level of difficulty for each to score.
If you’re betting on a name-brand 49er, you either need to pay the premium or take another angle. How about we look at Aiyuk for a First Team TD Scorer at +500? In 2023, four of his seven touchdowns were the first Niners TD of the game. With the Lions ranking first in DVOA against the run, the 49ers will likely need to attack through the air, especially in the red zone.
One part of the Lions defense that the Niners and Aiyuk can exploit is the secondary. Detroit plays man coverage at a top-10 rate; Aiyuk has feasted against man coverage this season and has seen a lot of his receiving metrics — like yards per route run, average depth of target, first read and target share — all go up against man as opposed to zone. That doesn’t bode well for the the Lions, who finished the regular season 23rd in DVOA against WR1s and 24th in DVOA against deep passes.
In the playoffs, we’ve seen Puka Nacua and Mike Evans score long TDs on against Detroit. If you include those playoff games, the Lions have allowed an opposing WR to score the first touchdown in 9-of-19 games (47%), with six of those to WR1s (31%). Everyone is going to be on McCaffrey's First TD, so this is me zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Another angle that may not bear fruit but remains hard to overlook is RB2 Elijah Mitchell. He didn’t have a carry against Green Bay with McCaffrey getting all the backfield work, but in a run-first offense, Mitchell shouldn’t be +550.
I don’t care that the Lions ranked first in DVOA against the run during the season. Rachaad White averaged almost six yards per carry and scored a receiving TD off a screen. For me, Mitchell is McCaffrey insurance in case McCaffrey gets injured, needs a breather or the game becomes a blowout in favor of San Francisco.
Verdict: Bet Brandon Aiyuk First Team TD (+500; FanDuel) and sprinkle Elijah Mitchell (+700; FanDuel).
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