NFL Season-Long Player Props: Bets, Picks for Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Terry McLaurin, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Terry McLaurin.
Before numbers start moving on NFL season-long player props, our experts have identified their favorite picks.
On the latest episode of the Fantasy Flex podcast, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon laid out four picks at quarterback, running back and wide receiver.
If you like betting overs, this episode was not for you. The duo highlight how there's more season-long value on unders for many reasons, with injuries being the biggest. One or two missed games can torpedo an over.
Check out Koerner and Raybon's favorite picks before training camp gets under way.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield — Under 3,800.5 passing yards
Koerner: “He’s only cleared this once in four years, granted we are playing an extra game now. The Browns are a very run-heavy team, and he’s going to a very run-heavy team in the Panthers. The Browns ran the ball at the 13th-highest rate on early downs last year, and the Panthers were the eighth-highest rate.”
Baker Mayfield — Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns
Raybon: “I’m looking at Carolina last season, and they have 14 passing touchdowns. OK, well the year before, they had a better quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, a little more to the level I think that Baker Mayfield is at. And they still only had 16 passing touchdowns.”
Davis Mills — Lead the NFL in Interceptions (+1000, FanDuel)
Koerner: “I’m the first one to admit that Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise last year as a rookie, especially considering we had five quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
“They’re going to let him start, I would assume, all 17 games, no matter what is going on. … I just think this is a recipe for a very high ceiling on his interception total this year. I think he should be the market leader.”
Lamar Jackson — Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Raybon: “Even if the yardage kind of stays consistent and the carries stay consistent, it’s hard to get to seven touchdowns.
“Even with the two seven-touchdown seasons, Lamar scored 16 in his last 42 games started over the last three years. If you take that per game average and multiply it by 17, that still puts him just short of 6.5.”
Running Backs
Elijah Mitchell — Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Koerner: “He does have a lower floor than most backs just because of the volatility of the Niners’ running back situations. Even if he does start the entire season, he might not beat this number. He only had five rushing attempts inside the 5 last year, whereas Jeff Wilson, who only played six games, had four.”
Miles Sanders — Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Raybon: “I don’t expect him to have none again … but this has been the story throughout his career. He hasn’t really been a guy who has fared well in terms of scoring touchdowns on the ground. He has nine on 480 career carries.”
Christian McCaffrey — Under 8.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Koerner: “He only scored one touchdown on 99 carries last year. He had three carries inside the 5, and all three of them he got stuffed and combined for -2 rushing yards. The offensive line is partly to blame for that. It’s still going to be brutal this year.”
Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Under 6.5 Touchdowns
Raybon: “He averages one touchdown per every 37 carries for his career, which means he would need just under 262 to get to this line.”
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen — Under 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Koerner: “He’s never been a real red-zone threat. Especially as we get closer to the goal line, [Justin] Herbert’s going to be targeting Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams. He loves targeting the tight ends, so this year that’ll be Gerald Everett, possibly Donald Parham.
“I think we’ll see the same old Keenan Allen — 1,200 receiving yards and six touchdowns.”
Treylon Burks — Under 795.5 Receiving Yards
Raybon: “I just don’t like the way it’s starting out for him. He’s falling behind in camp, he’s struggled with the asthma issues. There’s talk he could be the No. 3 receiver.
“Over the last 10 years, just 14 of the 40 receivers draft in Round 1 have cleared this prop number.”
Terry McLaurin — Most Receiving Yards (+6600, BetMGM)
Koerner: “He is a downfield threat. He had the fourth-most targets, 20-plus yards down field, and he only saw 14 of his 29 targets were catchable. … If Wentz and McLaurin were to connect on more deep balls next year, I think it’s going to help for this market. Plus, Terry doesn’t have much competition for targets there still.”
Ja’Marr Chase — Under 11.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Raybon: “Twelve receiving touchdowns is a massive number. Obviously, any type of injury, even one or two missed games, could be the difference here.
“He had 13 last year. I looked at rookie wide receivers with 13 or more touchdowns in Year 1. There’s only been three other receivers that’ve done it. The average in Year 2 is just 8.5.”
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