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NFL Week 11 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 11 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

We are officially hitting the home stretch with eight weeks to go in the regular season. The Eagles undefeated ways are now over, the Giants and Jets still lead the NFL on the moneyline and the Titans and Giants lead the way in against the spread.

Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 11 of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Nov. 20, 10 a.m. ET.


1. Dogs in Minneapolis

The Vikings have an 88% win percentage entering their Week 11 game against the Cowboys. Teams with an 88% win rate or higher, that are listed as home dogs are 37-22-2 ATS in the last 20 years.

The last time a team, with their starting quarterback, was a home dog in November or later with this high a win pct? 2015 Carolina Panthers, Cam Newton were +2 at home vs. Packers and won 37-29.

2. A Brand New Low

The Rams are 2-6-1 ATS to open the season, the worst ATS start for a defending Super Bowl Champ since the Green Bay Packers started 1-6-2 ATS back in 1997.

3. Home Cooking

Mike Tomlin is 14-8 SU and 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career. His 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the last 20 years. As a home dog vs. AFC North opponents, he is 5-0-2 ATS.


Every NFL Game For Week 11 

Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.


Game-By-Game Breakdown

Titans at Packers 
Channel: Amazon | 8:15 p.m. ET (THU)
Line: GB (-3) | O/U: 40.5
Ryan Tannehill, TENN
2022 Career Primetime
5-2 ATS
5-2 SU
71-69-3 ATS
79-64 SU
8-11 ATS
10-9 SU
Aaron Rodgers, GB
2022 Career Primetime
4-6 ATS
4-6 SU
135-97-5 ATS
154-82-1 SU
41-27-2 ATS
44-26 SU


+ Titans seven-game ATS win streak is the longest in the NFL. The Titans haven’t covered seven straight since 2008.

Teams to cover eight straight last decade: Packers (2021), Bills (2020), Saints (2018), 76ers (2017), Cowboys (2016), Vikings (2015).

+ Titans are 23-14 ATS as an underdog under Mike Vrabel.

  • He’s 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS as an underdog at night
  • He’s 5-1 SU/ATS as an underdog on short rest

+ Titans are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS on short rest under Vrabel.

+ Titans have played on the road once for Thursday Night Football under Mike Vrabel, a 20-7 loss in 2019 at Jaguars.

+ Ryan Tannehill have played well off Titans wins this season, going 3-0 SU/ATS.

Thursday Night Football Unders …

+ 23-15 since 2020 (6-4 this season)

+ The under is now 17-7 in the last 24 games on Thursday Night Football.



+ Aaron Rodgers on TNF: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS

  • At night: 44-26 SU, 41-27-2 ATS
  • At night at home: 30-7 SU, 24-12-1 ATS

+ Rodgers on short rest: 24-6 SU, 18-11-1 ATS

+ Rodgers is 2-8 against the second half spread this season, the least profitable quarterback against the second half spread in the NFL.

+ If the Packers lose, they go under their win total of 11 for the season officially. In Rodgers’ 14 seasons, the Packers are just 7-7 to the over on their win total.

+ The Packers’ Super Bowl odds shortened from 150-1 to 80-1 after beating the Cowboys.

+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +450 now.


Lions at Giants 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NYG (-3) | O/U: 45
Jared Goff, DET
2022 Career  Road (Career)
5-5 ATS
3-6 SU
50-45-2 ATS
50-46-1 SU
25-22 ATS
23-23-1 SU
Daniel Jones, NYG
2022 Career  Home (Career)
7-2 ATS
7-2 SU
26-20 ATS
19-27 SU
11-13 ATS
11=13 SU


+ The Lions are off a road game in Soldier Field against the Bears. Teams coming off a road game in Chicago are 94-59-3 ATS in their next game over the last 20 years — most profitable previous road city ATS in the NFL.

+ Jared Goff is 1-10-1 SU on the road in his last 12 starts, losing by 11.8 PPG. Goff hasn’t won on the road in consecutive weeks since 2018.

+ Goff is 10-13 ATS after a SU win on the road. When he plays on the road again? 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, but 0-4 SU/ATS in his past four games in this spot.

+ Goff as Underdog: 12-29-1 SU, 22-20 ATS



+ Giants are 7-2 ATS, their best ATS start since 2008 (7-2 ATS).

+ Daniel Jones is the most profitable quarterback ATS this season at 7-2 ATS (+$450)

+ Daniel Jones biggest favorite

  • -6.5, 2020, at Bengals (W, 19-17)
  • -5, 2022, vs. Texans (W, 24-16)
  • -4, 2022 vs. Lions

+ Daniel Jones is 9-4 ATS vs. teams with win rate of less than 40%. 3-0 SU/ATS vs. such teams this season.

+ Four straight Giants games have gone under the total (Giants are 7-2 to the under this season).

+ Giants home unders are 16-1 in their last 17 games, going under the total by 8.6 PPG.

+ Daniel Jones home unders are 18-6 (sixth-most profitable quarterback to home unders in last 20 years)

+ Saquon Barkley currently leads the NFL in rushing yards. He was 25-1 to lead the category before the season started.


» Return to the table of contents «


Bears at Falcons 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: ATL (-3) | O/U: 48.5
Justin Fields, CHI
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-6 ATS
3-7 SU
7-13 ATS
5-15 SU
4-6 ATS
2-8 SU
Marcus Mariota, ATL
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-4 ATS
4-6 SU
32-39-2 ATS
34-39 SU
15-17-2 ATS
19-15 SU


+ Justin Fields has faced six teams on extended rest in his NFL career. He is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. 1-0 SU/ATS in 2022 and was 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS entering this season.

+ Fields is 7-13 ATS as a starting quarterback, including 6-11 ATS as an underdog.

+ Fields has been sacked league high 36 times this season.

+ Over the last two seasons, the Bears are 4-17 SU as underdogs, least profitable team on moneyline as dogs in the NFL (-$700).



+ Both the Bengals and Falcons technically have played the Panthers in their previous game. Teams this season are 0-8 straight up after playing the Panthers, the only winless previous opponent in the NFL.

+ Falcons have lost four consecutive games ATS after starting 6-0 ATS.

+ 6-0 ATS teams last decade perform after hot start.

  • 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS »» 0-4 ATS
  • 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS »» 7-5 ATS
  • 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS »» 4-7-1 ATS

+ The Falcons are one win away from their going over their preseason win total (4.5).

+ This will be Marcus Mariota’s first start for the Falcons on extended rest. He is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS on extended rest in his lat eight such starts dating back to 2016.


Browns vs. Bills 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: BUF (-7.5) | O/U: 50.5
Jacoby Brissett, CLE
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-3 ATS
1-6-1 SU
10-9 ATS
3-15-1 SU
4-5 ATS
2-7 SU
Josh Allen, BUF
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-2 ATS
6-2 SU
25-20 ATS
18-27 SU
10-13 ATS
10-13 SU


+ Kevin Stefanski history by spread with Browns…

  • Favorite: 17-8 SU, 8-17 ATS
  • Dog: 5-13 SU, 10-8 ATS

+ Browns have lost seven of their last eight games away from home SU.

+ Jacoby Brissett career as an underdog: 6-22 SU (13-13-2 ATS)

Brissett away fro home in his career: 4-17 SU, 9-10-2 ATS

+ The Browns lost by 20-plus points back in Week 10. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20 or more points are 70-49 ATS in their next game, including 54-30 ATS when listed as an underdog.



+ How do Bills perform after a bad defensive performance? They are 8-2-1 ATS with Josh Allen at quarterback after allowing 28 points or more in their previous game, covering the spread by 6 PPG.

+ Bills are on a 3-game ATS losing streak, their first three-game ATS losing streak since Oct. 2020 (four-game streak). Allen’s longest ATS losing streak is four games.

+ Allen has played five games in his NFL career off a two-game losing streak, the Bills are 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS (only loss in 2019-20 playoffs).

+ Allen leads NFL in interceptions with 10. He was 25-1 to lead NFL in interceptions before the season.

  • The Bills-Browns total got at low as 41 when the game was expected to be played in Buffalo with almost six feet of snow.

» Return to the table of contents «


Eagles at Colts 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: PHI (-6.5) | O/U: 45.5
Jalen Hurts, PHI
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-4 ATS
8-1 SU
14-14-1 ATS
17-12 SU
5-10 ATS
9-6 SU
Matt Ryan, IND
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-4 ATS
4-3-1 SU
115-121-4 ATS
128-111-1 SU
54-59-2 ATS
68-47 SU


+ Jalen Hurts is 5-10 ATS on the road in his career. He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.

+ Eagles were 8-0 SU prior to their loss to the Commanders in Week 10. Five teams have been 8-0 SU and lost in their ninth game in the past 20 years, those teams are 4-1 SU, but just 2-2-1 ATS in their next game.

+ Assuming Philly will bounce back after the loss vs. Commanders? The Eagles are just 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after a loss under Jalen Hurts.

+ Eagles last four games have gone over the total, the first time that’s happened since 2016 for Philly. They haven’t gone over in five straight since 2012-13 seasons and in the same season since 2010.



+ The Colts are 1-9 against the first half spread this season and are 1-11 in their last 12 first halves ATS dating back to last year.

+ Colts 8-2 to the under this season — Colts under 13 of last 15 games.

+ The Colts are traveling from Vegas back home to Indy to face the Eagles. Since 2017, teams to play in the Pacific time zone and then play in Eastern time zone in their next game are 88-56-3 against the first half spread. Those teams are 8-3 ATS this season.

+ Since 2020, Matt Ryan is 3-10-1 ATS after a SU win, the second-least profitable quarterback in the NFL in that span ahead of just Russell Wilson.

+ Ryan hasn’t had a lot of success vs. good teams. He is 5-11-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU since 2020, second-least profitable quarterback in the NFL ahead of just Matthew Stafford.

He’s 2-7-1 ATS in his last 10 starts vs. above .500 SU teams


Jets at Patriots 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NE (-3.5) | O/U: 38
Zach Wilson, NYJ
2022 Career Road (Career)
5-1 ATS
5-1 SU
10-9 ATS
8-11 SU
5-4 ATS
4-5 SU
Mac Jones, NE
2022 Career Home (Career)
2-3-1 ATS
3-3 SU
12-11-1 ATS
13-11 SU
6-6 ATS
5-7 SU


+ Jets are 0-2 SU/ATS on extended rest under Robert Saleh, failing to cover the spread by 24 PPG, losing to the Bills and Patriots.

Zach Wilson has started one game on extended rest — a 54-13 loss to the Bills

+ Jets haven’t won a game off at least 13 days rest — or a bye week — since 2015 against Washington, they are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS on 13 or more days rest since 2015.

+ Zach Wilson is 5-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, covering by 9.6 PPG.

  • The Jets have won three consecutive road games under Zach Wilson and four straight road games overall dating back to last season.

+ 11: Years since the Jets have made the playoffs, longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, +200 now.



+ Bill Belichick vs. Jets: 36-11 SU, 26-19-2 ATS

+ Patriots beaten the Jets 13 times in a row dating back to 2015 (9-4 ATS). Jets last win: Dec. 27, 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick against Tom Brady.

+ Belichick off a bye in the regular season: 15-6 SU, 11-9-1 ATS

Off bye at home regular season: 5-3 SU, 1-6-1 ATS

+ In the last 20 years, Belichick is 20-13-2 ATS in the regular season on at least 10 days to prepare, but just 1-3 SU/ATS since Tom Brady left for the Bucs.

+ Eight of the Patriots last 10 home games have gone over the total, going over the total by 7.6 PPG.

+ Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under

  • Under 40: 34-12-1 ATS (73.9%)
  • Under 42: 52-24-2 ATS (68.4%)
  • Under 45: 92-54-5 ATS (63%)
  • 45 or More: 110-87-5 ATS (55.8%)

+ Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks with 11.5, he was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.


» Return to the table of contents «


Rams at Saints 
Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: NO (-2.5) | O/U: 39.5
TBD, LAR
2022 Career Road (Career)
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU
Andy Dalton, NO
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-4 ATS
2-5 SU
79-73-6 ATS
78-78-2 SU
40-35-3 ATS
45-32-1 SU


+ Rams are 2-6-1 ATS to open the season, worst ATS start for Super Bowl champion since Green Bay Packers started 1-6-2 ATS back in 1997.

+ The Rams have lost three consecutive games SU. Under Sean McVay, that’s only happened twice prior to this and the Rams are 2-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 20 PPG.

+ Rams Super Bowl odds since Week 7: 20-1, 25-1, 40-1, 50-1, 80-1 now

+ For just the second time under Sean McVay, the Rams have scored 17 points or less in three consecutive games. The last time that happened the Rams won their next game 34-7.

+ The relief is off. Sean McVay is 20-12-3 ATS after playing a divisional game. When playing a game not off a divisional opponent, the Rams are 27-35 ATS.

+ Four straight Rams road games have gone under the total, including five of the past six road games dating back to last season.



+ In the last 20 years, the Saints have only played eight games where their offense scored 14 points or fewer in consecutive games prior and this is the second time its happened this season

+ When the points are struggling take the over. When both teams score 17 points or fewer in consecutive games over the last 20 years, the over is 24-18-1 (57%).

+ Advantage no more. Saints are just 4-8 SU at home since the start of last season, the second-least profitable home team on the moneyline in that span ahead of just the Cardinals.

2021 and 2022 are the first consecutive seasons where the Saints are under .500 SU at home since 2000 and 2001.


Panthers at Ravens 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: BAL (-13) | O/U: 41.5
Baker Mayfield, CAR
2022 Career Road (Career)
1-4 ATS
1-4 SU
26-39-1 ATS
31-35 SU
15-19 ATS
12-22 SU
Lamar Jackson, BAL
2022 Career Home (Career)
5-4 ATS
6-3 SU
33-29 ATS
44-18 SU
13-18 ATS
22-9 SU


+ Baker Mayfield has never closed as a double-digit underdog in his 66 career starts, that will likely end this week against the Ravens.

+ Panthers are 1-30 SU and 6-25 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020.

+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games.

+ Since 2018, Panthers are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS after beating a divisional opponent. Their one win came as 8-point favorites against the Texans.

+ Welcome back, Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is 1-4 ATS this season. In his career, he is 26-39-1 ATS (40%), the second-least profitable quarterback in the NFL ahead of only Matt Ryan since 2018.

When Mayfield faces a team above .500 SU, he is 10-20-1 ATS, the least profitable QB in the NFL since he was drafted in 2018.

+ Points don’t come at a premium in Carolina. After scoring 25 points in their win against the Falcons, can they repeat the performance? Panthers have lost six consecutive games ATS after scoring 24 points or more in their previous game, including going 5-15 ATS in this spot since 2019.



+ Lamar Jackson has faced nine teams in his career coming off extended rest (8 days or more). Ravens are 7-2 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 8.3 PPG.

+ Jackson is 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the regular season.

+ Jackson vs. NFC: 14-1 SU, 7-8 ATS

+ Jackson: 13-18 ATS at home | 20-11 ATS on road

Jackson has lost two straight at home ATS. He hasn’t lost three straight at home ATS since 2019.

+ Jackson is 38-22-2 against the first half spread with the Ravens, the second-most profitable quarterback against the first half spread since 2005 (No. 2 of 238; No. 1 is Joe Flacco).


» Return to the table of contents «


Commanders at Texans 
Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: WAS (-3) | O/U: 41.5
Taylor Heinicke, WAS
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-0-1 ATS
3-1 SU
11-9-1 ATS
10-11 SU
6-4 ATS
6-4 SU
Davis Mills, HOU
2022 Career Home (Career)
5-4 ATS
1-7-1 SU
10-10 ATS
3-16-1 SU
6-4 ATS
1-8-1 SU


+ Taylor Heinicke is 4-0-1 ATS in his last five starts (all in 2022 calendar year). Heinicke is 8-2-1 ATS in his last 11 starts.

+ The Texans have lost four straight games. Ron Rivera’s teams are 8-3 ATS facing a team on at least a four-game SU losing streak in his career as a head coach.

+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 6-1 to the under, with their only game going over eclipsing the total by just 2.5 points.



+ Davis Mills is 12-8 against the first half spread in his career.

+ Texans are 9-32-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.

+ Week 11 is Davis Mills’ 21st career start, all 21 as an underdog (10-10 ATS). 15 of 22 starts as a touchdown underdog or higher (8-7 ATS). Overall, Mills is 3-16-1 SU career.

+ Texans are 2-13-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

+ Texans have lost nine consecutive games SU vs. NFC (3-6 ATS)

Texans are 6-13-1 ATS vs. NFC since 2018, second-least profitable AFC team in that span (Jaguars).

+ The Texans have a 12% win pct entering Week 10. Teams in their ninth to 12th game of the season with a win percentage of 15% or less are 80-58-3 ATS (58%) over the last 20 years.


Raiders at Broncos 
Channel: FOX | 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: DEN (-2.5) | O/U: 41.5
Derek Carr, LV
2022 Career Road (Career)
3-6 ATS
2-7 SU
64-71-2 ATS
59-78 SU
33-35-1 ATS
26-43 SU
Russell Wilson, DEN
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-5 ATS
3-5 SU
93-82-7 ATS
116-65-1 SU
46-38-3 ATS
64-23 SU


+ The Raiders have now lost three games with a lead of at least 17 points this season. That’s tied for the record for the most such losses by any team in a single season in NFL history.

+ Raiders are 0-5 SU on road this season, lost 6 straight dating back to last year.

+ Derek Carr is 17-28-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road quarterback ATS in that span among  113 quarterbacks.

+ Carr is 11-5 ATS vs. Broncos, his most profitable opponent ATS. Carr is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games vs. Denver (won five consecutive SU).



+ Five straight Broncos games have gone under the total. Eight of Denver’s past nine games have gone under the total this season, the most profitable team to the under this season.

Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 20-6 (77%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.

+ With the Broncos, Russell Wilson has faced two teams allowing 24 PPG or more and Denver is 0-2 SU in those games.

+ Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders since December 2019 — five straight wins for the Raiders SU. In Denver’s last ten games against the Raiders, they are 1-9 ATS.

+ The Raiders enter this matchup losing three straight SU and ATS. In Russell Wilson’s career, he has faced 14 teams on three-plus game SU/ATS losing streaks and he is just 5-9 ATS.

  • The Broncos currently rank last in scoring and first in points allowed. The last NFL team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed was the 1946 Steelers.

» Return to the table of contents «


Cowboys at Vikings 
Channel: CBS | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: DAL (-1.5) | O/U: 48.5
Dak Prescott, DAL
2022 Career Road (Career)
2-2 ATS
2-2 SU
50-41-2 ATS
56-37 SU
25-18-1 ATS
24-20 SU
Kirk Cousins, MIN
2022 Career Home (Career)
4-4-1 ATS
8-1 SU
66-64-2 ATS
68-62-2 SU
30-33-1 ATS
39-25 SU


+ Dak Prescott is 50-41-2 ATS (54.9%) in his career.

23-9-2 ATS (71.9%) vs. opponents below .500 SU

  • +$1,284 — Second to Brady since 2005 ($3,109)

14-23 ATS (37.8%) vs. opponents above .500 SU

  • -$975 — 109th of 111 quarterbacks since he was drafted in 2016

+ Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott have struggled as a duo against good offenses. They are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS vs. teams scoring 24 PPG or more.

+ The under is 14-7 in the Cowboys last 21 games overall.

+ Prescott is 25-18-1 ATS on the road in his career, but when he faces a team above .500, that reduces to only 5-9 ATS in his career.



+ Vikings best starts

9-0: 1975, 1973

8-1: 2022, 2009, 1998, 1970, 1969

+ Vikings have won seven consecutive games SU (MIN has covered just three of those games).

+ Vikings are down to 11-1 to win the Super Bowl, their shortest Super Bowl odds since Week 3 of 2018 season.

+ Kirk Cousins has been a home dog with Vikings seven times, he is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. As a home underdog in October or later he is just 1-3 SU/ATS with Vikings.

+ Cousins with Vikings: 36-36-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.

Games at 1 p.m. ET or earlier: 46-34-2 ATS

Games at 4 p.m. ET or later: 20-30 ATS

+ Cousins is 27-36-2 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 16-28-2 ATS after a SU since 2017, least profitable quarterback ATS in the NFL.

+ Vikings have an 88% win pct entering their Week 11 game against the Cowboys. Teams with a 88% win pct or higher, listed as home dogs are 37-22-2 ATS in the last 20 years.

They are just the eighth team to be a home dog with this high a win percentage in November or later. Those teams are 5-2 ATS.

Last time a team, with their starting quarterback, was a home dog in November or later with this high a win percentage? The 2015 Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton were +2 at home vs. Packers and won 37-29.


Bengals at Steelers 
Channel: CBS | 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: CIN (-3.5) | O/U: 39.5
Joe Burrow, CIN
2022 Career Road (Career)
6-2 ATS
5-4 SU
25-14 ATS
20-18-1 SU
13-7 ATS
9-10-1 SU
Kenny Pickett, PIT
2022 Career Home (Career)
3-2 ATS
2-3 SU
3-2 ATS
2-3 SU
2-0 ATS
2-0 SU


+ Both the Bengals and Falcons have technically played the Panthers in their previous game. Teams this season are 0-8 straight up after playing the Panthers, the only winless previous opponent in the NFL.

+ Burrow career: 20-18-1 SU, 25-14 ATS (+$887). Most profitable quarterback ATS since 2020.

+ Burrow is 13-3 ATS in his last 16 starts.

+ Burrow is 14-7 ATS away from home, most profitable quarterback ATS since 2020.

+ Bengals are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games. They are the second-most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons.

+ Burrow is just 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) off a bye in his career (regular season + playoffs; 14 days or more)

He’s faced Steelers once off extended rest, a 36-10 loss in Pittsburgh.



+ Tomlin is 41-19-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he’s nearly untouchable at home. He’s 15-2-1 ATS there, covering nine straight and winning the last seven times outright.

+ Steelers have not fared well vs. teams off extended rest. They are 4-9 ATS vs. teams off eight days rest or more since 2020, the second-least profitable team ATS in that span (Bears).

+ Tomlin is 14-8 SU and 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career. His 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the last 20 years.

As a home dog vs. AFC North opponent: 5-0-2 ATS


» Return to the table of contents «


Chiefs at Chargers 
Channel: NBC | 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: KC (-5.5) | O/U: 52.5
Patrick Mahomes, KC
2022 Career Road (Career)
4-5 ATS
7-2 SU
45-36-2 ATS
65-18 SU
XX ATS
XX SU
Justin Herbert, LAC
2022 Career Home (Career)
6-3 ATS
5-4 SU
22-19 ATS
21-20 SU
XX ATS
XX SU


+ Patrick Mahomes at night: 19-7 SU, 14-11-1 ATS

Won five straight SNF starts (4-1 ATS)

+ Mahomes is 6-2 SU and 3-4-1 ATS vs. Chargers

Mahomes is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) away from Arrowhead vs. Chargers (one neutral game)

+ Away from Arrowhead Stadium, Mahomes is 24-14-1 ATS, covering the spread by 3.5 PPG, including 9-4 ATS away from Arrowhead vs. AFC West opponents.

This is Mahomes’ fifth primetime game vs Chargers: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS. He won and covered both meetings vs. LAC in L.A.

+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:

  • As favorite of -3.5 or more: 28-31-1 ATS
  • As favorite of -3 or less (or underdog): 17-5-1 ATS

+ Mahomes is just 1-5 ATS this season after a SU win and 15-20 ATS after a win since 2020.

+ Patrick Mahomes (+225) is now the favorite to win MVP ahead of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.



+ Justin Herbert career: 20-21 SU, 22-19 ATS.

Herbert’s ninth career game in primetime: 4-4 SU/ATS

Herbert’s third time playing Chiefs as dogs in PT: 0-2 SU

+ Herbert is 9-5 ATS as an underdog, but just 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS as a home dog.

+ Herbert is 1-8 against second half spread in primetime in his career.

+ Herbert second half in 2022: 2-7 ATS

Herbert second half ATS career: 11-28-2 (28%) — Least profitable quarterback in spot since drafted.

+ Herbert by time zone

  • Eastern/Central: 11-4 ATS
  • Mountain/Pacific: 11-15 ATS

+ Chargers Over/Under result under Brandon Staley based on the total:

  • Under 50: 10-4 to over
  • 50 or more: 8-4 to under

49ers at Cardinals 
Channel: ESPN | 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: SF (-8) | O/U: 43.5
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
2022 Career International (Career)
3-4 ATS
4-3 SU
34-25-1 ATS
41-19 SU
0-0 ATS
0-0 SU
TBD, ARI
2022 Career International (Career)
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU
XX ATS
XX SU


+ This marks the fifth NFL game in Azteca Stadium in Mexico City.

Total points scored in those four games: 41, 41, 47, 45. Both totals that closed in the 50s went under, both totals that closed in the 40’s went over.

In all four games in Mexico City, the favorite has won and covered.

+ Favorites of more than a field goal outside the U.S. are 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS.

+ In 37 international games, favorites are 27-9-1 SU, 23-14 ATS.

+ Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):

  • Favorite: 19-28-1 ATS (third-worst)
  • Underdog: 29-19 ATS (fifth-best)

+ The 49ers are 39-19 straight up and 32-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as the quarterback. With all other quarterbacks in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.

+ Garoppolo by time zone: Pacific/Mountain: 18-18-1 ATS | Central/Eastern: 16-6 ATS

+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan after beating the Chargers last week.



  • Kliff Kingsbury has struggled late in the season as a head coach…

Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury

Overall: 28-31-1 SU, 31-27-2 ATS

Weeks 1-7: 18-9-1 SU, 20-8 ATS

Week 8+: 10-22 SU, 11-19-2 ATS

Kingsbury at Texas Tech

Games 1-4: 18-6 SU, 17-6-1 ATS

Games 5+: 17-34 SU, 23-28 ATS

  • Kliff Kingsbury is 22-11-2 ATS as an underdog. Since Kingsbury’s first game coached in 2019, he’s the most profitable coach ATS as an underdog in the NFL.

Kliff Kingsbury career ATS vs. NFC West by Starting QB

  • Kyler Murray: 6-12-2 ATS
  • Colt McCoy: 3-0 ATS

If Kyler Murray starts…

  • Kyler vs. NFC West: 5-15 SU, 6-12-2 ATS
  • Kyler is 25-30-1 2H ATS. 19-12-1 as underdog, 6-18 as favorite.
  • Kyler Murray by timezone: PST/MST: 15-21-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-5 ATS
  • Kyler Murray is 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS on extended rest in his career.


» Return to the table of contents «


The Big Picture


Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 11, both the Vikings and the Dolphins are on the rise as both are inside 20-1 to win the Super Bowl…

SB: 11-1 (shortest SB odds since Week 3 of 2018)


SB: 16-1 (T-shortest odds to win SB this season)


Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.


2022 Season Betting Update
1.
The Comeback
This season, teams trailing at the half are 79-54-1 (60%) against the second half spread. The best start since 2015 and the second-best start since 2005.
2.
The Pre-Bye Advantage
Teams before the bye week this season: 16-6 SU, 17-5 ATS
3.
Divisional Unders
Unders are 31-16 in NFL division games this season.
Best start for divisional unders in the last 20 years.
Week 11 matches: KC/LAC, LV/DEN, NYJ/NE, CIN/PIT, SF/ARI
4.
Big Favorites
Favorites of 7 points or more: 23-10-1 SU, 12-22 ATS
+The least profitable start for touchdown favorites last 20 years.
5.
The Under
Through 10 games, the under is 86-62 (58.1%) this season.
Best start for the under through 10 games in the last 20 years — second-best? Last year, 88-66-1 through 10 games.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.


Win Total Tracker Update!

So far this season, two teams have gone over their preseason win total:

  • Jets
  • Seahawks

With wins this week, the Giants and Falcons can go over their preseason win totals.

As of now, no teams have went under their win totals. With losses this week, the Packers and Rams will go under their win totals.


Motivation For Some Rest!

So far this season, public sides — or teams with at least 51% of the tickets in any given game — are 62-79-3 against the spread.

  • The public has lost -$2,247 on a $100/game basis ATS, the worst start through 10 games for the public in the last 20 years.
  • Second-worst was last year, 69-83-1 ATS through 10 games.

Overall, the public has struggled this year:

Public This Season 

  • 51%+ – 62-79-3 ATS
  • 60%+ – 29-35-1 ATS
  • 66%+ – 15-20 ATS
  • 70%+ – 9-10 ATS

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