Koerner’s Week 11 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s Week 11 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks article feature image

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers mascot

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to identify his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his Week 11 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 11 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 11 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 11 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. 49ers

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 85.2%

T-2. Vikings

Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

T-2. Raiders

Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

4. Bills

Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

5. Rams

Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

6. Cowboys

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

7. Panthers

Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

8. Ravens

Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

T-9. Saints

Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-9. Chiefs

Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

11. Patriots

Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 62%

12. Colts

Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

13. Browns

Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

14. Redskins

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

15. Jets

Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

16. Steelers

Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

17. Jaguars

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

18. Eagles

Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 38%

19. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

19. Chargers

Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

21. Texans

Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

22. Falcons

Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

23. Bears

Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

24. Lions

Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

24. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Fan

26. Broncos

Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

26. Bengals

Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

28. Cardinals

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 14.8%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Buccaneers

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: vs. NO

T-2. Bears

Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ LAR

T-2. Bengals

Spread: +10.5
Opponent: @ OAK

4. 49ers

Spread: -11
Opponent: vs. ARI

5. Eagles

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. NE

6. Chiefs

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAC

T-7. Bills

Spread: -6
Opponent: @ MIA

T-7. Broncos

Spread: +10.5
Opponent: @ MIN

9. Falcons

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ CAR

T-10. Browns

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. PIT

T-10. Jaguars

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ IND

T-10. Redskins

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ

13. Lions

Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. DAL

T-14. Ravens

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. HOU

T-14. Texans

Spread: +4.5
Opponent: @ BAL

16. Cowboys

Spread: -6
Opponent: @ DET

T-17. Jets

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: @ WAS

T-17. Colts

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. JAX

T-17. Steelers

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ CLE

20. Panthers

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. ATL

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey

T-21. Vikings

Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. DEN

T-21. Dolphins

Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. BUF

23. Chargers

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. KC

24. Patriots

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ PHI

25. Cardinals

Spread: +11
Opponent: @ SF

T-26. Raiders

Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. CIN

T-26. Rams

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. CHI

28. Saints

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: @ TB

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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