NFL Week 12 Player Props: Expert Projections on Michael Carter & Brandin Cooks
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandin Cooks.
If you’ve been using the Action Labs Player Props tool, which is powered by Sean Koerner’s projections, you’ve been doing well for yourself all season.
I’ve been highlighting the picks that I’ve been making throughout the year using those numbers, and two receiving unders stood out for the 1 p.m. ET slate on Sunday afternoon.
Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
There is a massive edge here, with Action Labs projected Carter for just 7.8 receiving yards compared to his 20.5 lines at FanDuel.
James Robinson has played three games for the Jets, and Carter’s snap count has gone down from 56% to 52% to 50%. I doubt it gets too much lower, but it’s a trend worth noting. Robinson has played 22%, 40% and 22% of snaps with the Jets.
Carter has gone well under this total in his last two games, with 10 and -2 receiving yards against the Bills and Patriots. After going over this total in the first two games of the season, Carter has eclipsed 20.5 receiving yards just twice in the last eight games.
It’s pretty clear that Carter is not going to take over the backfield with Breece Hall out. He’s averaging a solid 4.5 yards per carry, but the Jets simply don’t intend to use him on every down, more like half of them.
The Jets are favored this week against a Bears team that might be without Justin Fields. If the new rushing QB phenom is out, the Jets should be in control of the game with Mike White hopefully leading a rejuvenated offense.
Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
It’s been a frustrating and underwhelming season for Cooks. After looking like he developed some solid chemistry with Davis Mills down the stretch of last season, the second-year QB was benched after another awful performance in favor of Kyle Allen.
Allen obviously isn’t going to provide a massive upgrade over Mills since the Texans’ main issue is a significant lack of talent all over the field.
Cooks has gone over this total in four of his nine appearances this season. He had four catches on the dot in four straight games before hauling in just three last week.
Chances are the Texans are going to be trailing early and often on Sunday in Miami, but Action Labs isn’t expecting much of the negative game script to feature Cooks. He’s projected for just 41 receiving yards, creating an edge on his 52.5 total at FanDuel.