Quarterback Uncertainty Driving Early NFL Week 14 Line Movement

Dec 05, 2018 9:34 PM EST
  • Early action has swung the Ravens-Chiefs and Falcons-Packers spreads in a big way, with both lines moving 1.5 points since opening.
  • Several lines are flirting with the key number of three, including the Giants-Redskins game that could feature Mark Sanchez under center.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down the early action for the rest of the NFL Week 14 slate.

Mark Sanchez, Cody Kessler, Chase Daniel, Nick Mullens and Blaine Gabbert. Just a few of the fellas who could be starting at quarterback this week.

We’ve gotten to the point of the season in which injuries are derailing some teams’ seasons, while others consider resting starters.

These situations may scare off some folks, but early bettors are trying to take advantage and find value on this week’s slate.

Big Line Moves

Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs

To the surprise of many, the line has moved against the Chiefs in a big way since opening. Kansas City is getting 65% of spread bets, but has dropped from -7.5 to -6.

Those who took them at -7.5 are probably kicking themselves.

There was an early cash discrepancy, with Baltimore getting 60% of the money as of Monday afternoon. Those levels have since dropped, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line move back up toward the key number of seven.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Aaron Rodgers has never known anything besides Mike McCarthy in his pro career, but those days are done. Historically, the two fared terrifically against the spread, but obviously had a poor showing this year.

Early sharp bettors jumped at the opener, believing those tough times will come to an end. The Packers are getting the majority of the money and have moved from -4 to -5.5 since opening.

Key Numbers

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Chicago Bears

At just -3, the Rams are getting 74% of spread bets against the Bears. With the possibility of Chase Daniel starting yet again, who can blame those bettors?

Though the line has remained at three at BookMaker all week, Chicago has hit +3.5 and even +4 at some spots. Sharp action played the Bears at those numbers, though, as bettors are apparently willing to risk the QB situation to grab the hook.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

You know things are going poorly when it’s terrible news for your team that Colt McCoy will be out for the rest of the year.

Well, that’s just what has happened for the Redskins, who will probably have to roll out Mark Sanchez next week barring any roster changes.

What I find crazy is the difference between the current spread and last week’s lookahead line at Westgate. The Giants’ win over Chicago certainly factored in, but is there really that much of a drop off from McCoy to Sanchez?

Sharp bettors don’t seem to think so, as Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a reverse line move on the Redskins at +4, which has moved the line closer to the key number of three.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Every week there’s at least one game that sees some back-and-forth action between 3 and 3.5. It looks like this is going to be that game.

The line at BookMaker has flip-flopped, with Minnesota currently back at the opener of +3.5. However, the vig suggests we could see a move back to +3 again in the near future.

Following last week’s polar-opposite performances from the two teams, the public is riding the hot hand as Seattle is getting nearly two-thirds of spread bets.

Over/Unders

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (37)

These two teams have a knack for low totals. There have been 32 games with over/unders of 42 or below this season and the Jags and Titans are responsible for nine of them, per Bet Labs.

This one opened at 38 and has since fallen to 37 behind more than 80% of dollars coming in on the under. With Marcus Mariota questionable due to a hand injury, it’s possible we see a Cody Kessler vs. Blaine Gabbert showdown.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (55.5)

This game is looking quite similar to the Panthers-Bucs matchup in Week 13. Though the total is a few points higher, it has already dropped from 57.5 to 55.5.

Late-season divisional unders are cash money, especially when the total is high.

Credit:

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bears quarterback Chase Daniel.

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