NFL Week 14 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
After favorites went 13-1-1 straight up and 10-5 against the spread in Week 13, their best week of the season, will the chalk run continue?
Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 14 of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Dec. 11, 11 a.m. ET.
1. One For The History Books
The 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings this week. Over the last 20 years, 89 teams have been under .500 straight up and been listed as a favorite over a team with a win pct of 80% or higher — and only eight times has one of those 89 games been played in December or later.
The last time a team with its starting QB and a 80%+ win pct was an underdog vs. a team who was under .500 SU in December or later?
The 9-2 Falcons in 2004 behind Michael Vick were 1.5-pt underdogs in Tampa Bay against the 4-7 Bucs. The Bucs won, 27-0.
2. A Series Of Unders
This season, the under is 11-1 in Denver Broncos games. Only one other team in the last 20 years has started 11-1 to either the over or under — the 2003 Bills were 11-1 to the under behind Drew Bledsoe, went 6-10 SU and ended up 14-2 to the under at the end of the season.
Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 23-6 (79.3%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.
3. Is It Finally Time?
In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are 16-3-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 NE, 2-0 TB). The Bucs are one loss away from going under their win total (11) this season. It would be the first time Brady has gone under his team’s preseason win total since 2009 (his team’s win total is 10-0-2 to over since 2009).
If Brock Purdy starts for the 49ers, this will be only the second time Brady has been an underdog vs. rookie QB. The other? Vince Young in 2006 as a 3.5-point favorite with the Titans at home. Patriots won 40-23.
4. The Perfect Spot
Patrick Mahomes hits the road this week against Denver and some undefeated streaks are on the line:
+ Mahomes away from home vs. AFC West: 14-0 SU, 9-5 ATS
+ Mahomes is 15-0 SU and 8-7 ATS as above a 5-pt favorite on the road in his career.
|Derek Carr, LV|
+ Derek Carr is just 12-12 SU, but 14-8-2 ATS playing in night games.
- The third-most profitable QB at night since he was drafted in 2014.
- Carr is only 1-6 SU on the road in his career in night games (lost four straight)
+ Raiders have won their last two road games overall, but they are now 2-5 SU on the road this year and 2-6 SU in their last eight road games overall.
+ Derek Carr is 19-28-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the second-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (113 of 114 QBs).
+ Derek Carr is 26-33 ATS after a SU win in his career.
+ Raiders have won and covered three consecutive games. They haven’t won and covered four straight since November of 2016.
+ Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing (1,303). He leads by almost 200 yards over Nick Chubb. Jacobs is -165 to lead the NFL in rushing right now and was 40-1 to lead the league in the preseason.
+ Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS at night this season (losses vs. 49ers/Bills). Rams were outscored 55-19 combined in the two games.
+ Sean McVay is 9-6 SU/ATS on short rest in his career as a coach, winning and covering five of their last six games on short rest.
+ Rams are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games dating back to last season.
+ Rams are failing to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
+ The Rams have lost six consecutive games SU, the longest losing streak under Sean McVay.
+ Rams are 3-9 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $805 betting L.A., the least profitable team on the moneyline this season.
+ Rams Super Bowl odds since Week 7: 20-1, 25-1, 40-1, 50-1, 80-1, 500-1, 750-1 now
|Kirk Cousins, MIN|
|Jared Goff, DET|
+ Kirk Cousins is 3-9-1 ATS in toss-up road games (spread of +3 to -3) since 2018. Of 69 QBs since 2018, Cousins is ranked 68th ATS (Worst is Dak Prescott).
+ In December or later, when Cousins has faced an offense allowing 24+ PPG on the road he is 1-6 SU/ATS (all seven game with Vikings).
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-37-2 ATS; 30-28 ATS with Washington.
- 1 p.m. ET or earlier: 47-34-2 ATS
- 4 p.m. ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ With their victory over the Jets, the Vikings have won 12 consecutive games as a favorite dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ Cousins is 28-37-2 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 17-29-2 ATS after a SU since 2017, least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
+ The 10-2 Vikings are listed as an underdog against the Lions this week. In the last 20 years, teams with a 70%+ win pct who are listed as underdogs in December or later in the regular season are 48-66-3 ATS (42%), including 14-23-1 ATS since 2016.
+ The Lions haven’t been favored in consecutive games since November 2020.
- The Lions haven’t been favored vs. an NFC North team since September, 2020 vs. Bears (-2.5, a 27-23 loss).
- Last time Lions were favored over the Vikings? November, 2016. Lions (-2) won 16-13, Matthew Stafford over Sam Bradford.
+ Lions have covered four consecutive games vs. Vikings (lost six straight ATS vs. Vikings prior to that). Last time Detroit covered four straight vs. Vikings? 1986.
+ Lions have covered the spread in five consecutive games; they haven’t covered 5 straight games since 2018.
+ Jared Goff is 25-13 ATS playing in the 1p ET window or earlier, covering 5 in a row in 2022.
+ Jared Goff is 25-13 ATS (66%) in these early kickoffs at 1 p.m. ET or earlier, versus 26-29-2 ATS (47%) in all other games.
+ Goff is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in his last 11 starts coming off a double-digit win.
|Mike White, NYJ|
|Josh Allen, BUF|
+ Sauce Gardner is now (-650) favorite to win Defensive ROY; he opened at +1200 odds.
+ The under is 5-2 in the Bills and Jets last seven meetings dating back to the start of the 2019 season.
+ New York is 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Between 2015-21, Jets were 17-34-3 ATS on the road, under .500 ATS all seven seasons (worst in the NFL).
+ Mike White gets his sixth career start this week for the Jets. New York has averaged 26.8 PPG in White’s five starts and games he’s played in have averaged 58.4 PPG, too.
+ Jets are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 7-5 SU, a $100 bettor up $816.
+ Advantage Jets in 1H? New York is 9-3 1H ATS (T-best in NFL).
+ The Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years, the longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season and are +105 now.
+ Jets are ninth overall in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Bills are first. The only matchup of top-10 DVOA teams this week.
+ Bills are back to favorites to win the Super Bowl at +375, ahead of the Chiefs.
+ Josh Allen has faced a defense allowing fewer than 20 PPG 18 times in his career. He is 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in those games.
His 14-3-1 ATS record is the fourth-best ATS record vs. good defenses in the last 20 years (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Josh Allen).
+ Josh Allen has failed to cover the spread in two consecutive home games. In his career, he’s never lost three straight home games ATS.
+ Teams after facing Patriots in New England:
- 2021-22: 8-5-1 ATS
- 2018-20: 7-15 ATS
+ Allen has struggled coming home off a road trip. In his last six home starts off a road trip (2+ road games), he is 2-3-1 ATS.
+ Since 2020, Josh Allen is 7-2 ATS in December, the most profitable QB ATS in the month.
+ The under is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games, mostly on the road though, as Buffalo’s last two home games went over the total.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 48-27-3 (64%) against the second half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t. Bills are 30-15-1 (67%) against the second half spread when leading at the half.
In the month of December, Allen is 13-4-1 against the second half spread, covering 8 of their last 9 in the spot since 2020.
+ Josh Allen has 11 interceptions this season, two fewer than the current leader, Matt Ryan with 13 who opened at 40-1 in the preseason. Allen was 25-1 to lead NFL in interceptions before the season.
|Tyler Huntley, BAL|
|Kenny Pickett, PIT|
+ No Lamar Jackson this week vs. Steelers. He is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in his career vs. Steelers — his most ATS losses without win.
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 6-10 SU/ATS.
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 4-7-1 against the first half spread.
+ John Harbaugh is 21-10 against the first half spread vs. Steelers in his career.
+ Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. Ravens are 25-5 SU, but just 14-16 ATS in those games. Of the 30 games, Baltimore has been an underdog twice. They are 2-0 SU/ATS in those games.
+ Mike Tomlin career vs. Ravens: 18-15 SU, 16-14-13 ATS. At home in last eight meetings: 4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS
+ Steelers are 6-12-1 ATS as favorites vs. Ravens under Mike Tomlin, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. Baltimore as favorites.
Tomlin has faced the Ravens six times when not going against Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco. He is just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS.
+ December has been a tough month in Pittsburgh. Steelers are 9-16 ATS in December since 2017, the fourth-least profitable team ATS in December in that span.
+ With T.J. Watt in action since drafting him in 2017, the Steelers are 55-25-2 straight up. Without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up.
+ Steelers have beaten the Ravens four times in a row SU. Their last loss was December 29, 2019. Steelers last won four straight vs. Ravens back in 2001-03 when they won five straight.
|Jalen Hurts, PHI|
|Daniel Jones, NYG|
+ Jalen Hurts is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road vs. NFC East opponents (won two in a row SU, both vs. Commanders)
+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 11-4-1 ATS
- Road: 5-11 ATS — He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.
+ Eagles are 7-16 ATS on the road since 2020, the least profitable road team ATS in that span.
Eagles are 1-6 ATS on the road vs. NFC East since 2020.
+ Eagles went over their preseason win total (10) last week with win vs. Titans
Previous six times Eagles had a double-digit win total, they went under (2019, 2018, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2005)
Last over on a double-digit win total for Eagles? 2004, they went and lost in Super Bowl.
+ In December or later over the last 20 years, teams with a 90%+ win pct are 25-53-1 ATS (32%).
When those teams play away from home, they are 8-32-1 ATS (20%)
+ Eagles are 7-point road favorites. If they close at 7 or more, the under is 80-43-2 (65%) when the road team is favored by 7 or more and the total is 45 or more over the last decade.
+ Daniel Jones is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS vs. Eagles
Faced Jalen Hurts once. Last season as 3.5-pt dog, a 13-7 Giants win.
Jones is 11-5 ATS vs. NFC East opponents in his career, including 9-3 ATS when listed as an underdog vs. NFC East teams
+ Giants home unders are 17-2 in their last 19 games.
+ Daniel Jones home unders are 19-7.
+ Giants can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Eagles.
Giants under win total in five straight years and eight of last nine, including 9-1-1 since 2011. The streak of five is longest active streak for O or U.
+ The under is 32-12-1 (73%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ Giants are 9-3 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 12 games since starting 10-2 ATS in 2008.
+ Giants are 5-2-1 SU and 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 6-10 ATS as underdogs last season (NY is most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs).
|Deshaun Watson, CLE|
|Joe Burrow, CIN|
+ Bengals are down to +1100 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.
+ Burrow is 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS vs. Browns (his most losses without a win vs. any opponent)
Burrow is 2-2 SU vs. BAL and 3-2 SU vs. PIT
+ Burrow has excelled in cold temperatures:
- 50 degrees or less: 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS
- 40 degrees or less: 5-0 SU/ATS
+ Burrow career: 23-18-1 SU, 28-14 ATS (+$1,167). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 16-3 ATS in his last 19 starts.
+ Bengals are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons, including the playoffs (23-10 ATS).
+ Bengals have won and covered four straight games — first time they’ve done that since the end of 2017 and the start of the 2018 regular season. Last time in the same regular season? The first four games of the 2015 season.
+ Joe Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 17 times in his career, he is 16-2 ATS, covering by 8 PPG.
Burrow has faced a team on at least a two-game ATS win streak 10 times, he is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS.
+ Deshaun Watson’s second start for the Browns this week.
- 30-27 SU, 27-28-2 ATS career
- Watson is 15-7 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 8-14 SU vs. teams above .500 SU
+ Browns have lost seven of their last nine road games SU. They are 4-9 SU on the road over the last two seasons.
+ Browns are one of eight teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DET, SEA, ARI, MIN, GB).
+ The Browns have gotten the ground game going rushing for over 150 yards in consecutive games. Under Kevin Stefanski, Browns are 1-6 SU/ATS in its last seven games after rushing for over 150 yards in consecutive games dating back to last season.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Jacoby Brissett, Browns produced NFL’s fifth-ranked offense (EPA per drive). Behind only: Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in one-score games more to blame for 4-7 record.
+ Browns have now won two straight games. Cleveland is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS under Stefanski in their last 9 games after a SU win.
+ Stefanski with Browns:
- Favorite: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
- Dog: 6-14 SU, 11-8-1 ATS
|Trevor Lawrence, JAC|
|Ryan Tannehill, TENN|
+ Trevor Lawrence is 7-22 SU, 9-20 ATS in his career.
+ Jaguars are 3-22 SU when allowing 14 pts or more under Trevor Lawrence.
+ Trevor Lawrence is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Mike Vrabel, failing to cover the spread by 12.8 PPG.
+ Lawrence vs. AFC South:
- Colts: 3-1 ATS
- Texans/Titans: 0-5 ATS
+ Trevor Lawrence has played three games in his career on the second leg of a road trip. Jaguars are 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover by 12 PPG.
Lawrence on road vs. AFC South teams: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS:
+ Trevor Lawrence is 1-12 straight up (3-10 ATS) on the road in his NFL career, failing to cover the spread by 4.7 PPG. Jags are 1-8 ATS on road w/ Lawrence since Dec. last season.
+ The Jaguars are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games.
+ Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill are 12-6 ATS vs. AFC South as a combo, the third-most profitable duo vs. divisional opponents since 2019.
Vrabel is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS vs. Jaguars (won five straight SU, three straight ATS)
+ Vrabel and Tannehill are 11-6-1 ATS after a SU loss as a duo. Vrabel was 1-2 ATS in this spot with Marcus Mariota.
Under Vrabel, the Titans have lost 13 games by double-digits, they are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in their next games after losing by double-digits.
+ The under has cashed in seven of the last nine Titans games. Only two overs were Titans/Packers by 3.5 points and last week vs. Eagles by a half point.
+ Titans are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games vs. Jaguars.
|Kyle Allen, HOU|
|Dak Prescott, DAL|
+ Texans are eliminated from playoff contention (they were -5000 to miss playoffs, shortest odds of any team).
+ As TD underdogs or greater (7 pts or more) on the road, the Texans are 3-27 SU in their last 30 games in that spot dating back to 2009.
+ Texans are 1-21 SU vs. non-divisional opponents since December of 2020 (only win vs. Chargers).
+ Texans are 9-35-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ The Texans have lost seven straight games SU. Each of those seven losses have been by seven points or more.
+ 9-3 Cowboys face off against the 1-10-1 Texans. Beware of the record advantages:
- Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 71-100-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 30-53-2 ATS (36%).
+ Biggest Underdogs This Season:
- +17.5 – Texans at Cowboys
- +16.5 – Rams at Chiefs (KC 26-10)
- +14.5 – Texans at Dolphins (MIA 30-15)
+ Cowboys can push the over on their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Texans.
+ Dak Prescott is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS when playing on a homestand (second consecutive home game or more). When he plays on his third straight home game, he’s 3-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 14.2 PPG.
+ Micah Parsons is -500 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year right now. He was +900 in the preseason.
+ Cowboys are just 3-2 SU/ATS vs. Texans all-time.
+ This is the third consecutive game the Cowboys will be favored by double-digits — Giants, Colts and Texans — the first time they’ve done that as a franchise since December of 2007.
+ Teams after facing the Colts this season are 11-1-1 ATS in their next game.
+ December home overs have cashed in six straight games for Cowboys and are 7-1 since 2018.
+ Prescott as a 7-pt favorite or greater: 18-3 SU, 14-6-1 ATS. In December or later: 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS
+ Dak Prescott is 52-42-2 ATS (55.3%) in his career.
24-9-2 ATS (73%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,377 – second to Tom Brady since 2005 ($3,109)
15-24 ATS (39%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$982 – 111th of 112 QBs since he was drafted in 2016
+ Cowboys Biggest Favorites Last 25 Years:
- -22 – vs. Dolphins (2019)
- -17.5 – vs. Texans (2022)
- -16 – vs. Bengals (2008)
+ Double-digit favorites are now 7-13 ATS this season, the worst start for double-digit favorites since 2008.
|Patrick Mahomes, KC|
|Russell Wilson, DEN|
+ Mahomes leads NFL in passing yards (3,808). He leads by over 300 yards. He is -400 to lead the NFL right now and was +800 entering the season.
+ Mahomes away from home vs. AFC West: 14-0 SU, 9-5 ATS
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home:
- Home: 21-23-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 24-16-1 ATS
+ Mahomes vs. AFC West: 24-3 SU, 14-12-1 ATS:
- 12 TD, 4 INT vs DEN
- 26 TD, 3 INT vs LV
- 21 TD, 5 INT vs LAC
- 59 TD, 12 INT
+ Mahomes above a 7-pt favorite on the road: 7-0 SU, 1-6 ATS
Mahomes is 15-0 SU and 8-7 ATS as above a 5-pt favorite on the road in his career.
+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 28-33-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS
+ Mahomes in November and December in his career: 32-5 SU, 17-18-2 ATS
+ Mahomes had his has 26-game SU win streak in November and December snapped vs. Bengals last week.
+ Mahomes off loss: 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS. Mahomes is 9-1 SU on the road off a loss (7-0 SU since 2019).
+ Chiefs are 6-1 to the under at home this season and 4-1 to the over on the road.
+ Chiefs are on a road trip from Cincinnati to Denver. Mahomes is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in the second game or later of a road trip.
+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half last week and lost. Kansas City had won their last six games in which they trailed at halftime. That was the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won seven straight from 1989-90.
+ Chiefs have had a five-plus game SU win streak four times prior to the one entering the Bengals game. After their streak was snapped, they won the next game all four times.
+ 9-3 Chiefs face off against the 3-9 Broncos. Beware of the record advantages.
Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 71-100-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 30-53-2 ATS (36%).
+ Patrick Mahomes (+120) is still the favorite to win MVP ahead of Jalen Hurts (+150).
Mahomes MVP odds: opened 8-1, 5-1 Week 4, 4-1 Week 8, 2-1 Week 10, +120 now
+ Russell Wilson as home dog: 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS
Second time with Broncos (11-10 win vs. 49ers as +1.5)
Largest Home Dog:
- +8.5 == 2022 Chiefs
- +7.5 == 2018 Rams, L 33-31
- +3.5 == 2019 49ers, L 26-21
- +3.5 == 2017 Eagles, W 24-10
- +3.5 == 2012 Patriots, W 24-23
- +3 == 2012 Packers, W 14-12
- +3 == 2012 Cowboys, W 27-7
+ Broncos haven’t won in the United States since September 25th.
+ Broncos have lost games where their opponent scored 10, 12, 16, 17, 17, 19 points this season.
- Broncos have failed to score 17 pts in 10 games this season.
- Broncos have lost four games this season where they led in the fourth quarter.
- Broncos are averaging 13.8 PPG this season. Last team to finish w/ under 14 PPG was 2012 Chiefs in a season.
+ Broncos have scored 14 total TDs this season, fewest in the NFL (next fewest is 18 by Texans).
+ The Broncos currently rank last in scoring and second in points allowed. That’s virtually unprecedented in the 32 team era. In fact, the last NFL team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed was the 1946 Steelers.
+ Wilson is 34-19-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 4-2 ATS as an underdog with the Broncos. Wilson is 14-6-2 ATS as an underdog when the total is below 45.
+ Above a TD underdog, Russell Wilson is 5-0 ATS.
+ Biggest Russell Wilson Underdog :
- +10 == 2018 at Rams (L, 36-31)
- +9 == 2022 at Ravens (L, 10-9)
- +8.5 == 2022 vs. Chiefs
- +7.5 == 2018 vs. Rams (L, 33-31)
- +7.5 == 2016 at Patriots (W, 31-24)
- +7.5 == 2012 at 49ers (L, 13-6)
+ With the loss vs. Ravens, Broncos are guaranteed their sixth consecutive losing season.
+ The Broncos are just the fifth team since the start of 2017 to lose when allowing exactly 10 points. In that span, teams that yield 10 points are 135-5, good for a .964 win rate (via @MaseDenver).
+ Blindly bet home dogs of 7 or more: 199-164-6 ATS (55%), +4.8% ROI — in Dec or later, 55.6%, +6.6% ROI
|Sam Darnold, CAR|
|Geno Smith, SEA|
+ Since Sam Darnold’s first start in 2018, he’s ranked 107th of 110 QBs against the spread: 19-30-1 ATS.
Darnold is 2-7 ATS in his last 8 starts overall.
+ Road teams traveling from EST to PST have performed well recently, going 62-41-5 ATS (60.2%) since 2016, when those teams are under .500 SU, like the Panthers, they are 35-17-2 ATS (67.3%) in that span.
+ The Panthers have lost nine consecutive games SU on the road
Panthers are 6-21 SU on the road since Oct. 2019. Only worse road record? Lions and Jaguars.
+ Panthers have covered three consecutive games, with all three games going under the total.
Carolina hasn’t covered four straight since 2019.
+ Sam Darnold, a USC product, has played in MST or PST twice in the NFL:
- 2020 at Rams – Won 23-20 as +17.5 dogs
- 2020 at Seahawks – Lost 40-3 as +16.5 dogs
+ Geno Smith is 11-6 ATS in his last 17 starts dating back to 2016.
Geno Smith is currently -900 to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
+ Kenneth Walker is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +200, he opened the year at 25-1 odds.
+ Geno Smith is 25-19-2 ATS in his career. In his 46 starts, he’s never closed as a 7-pt favorite or higher.
He closed as a 6.5-point favorite vs. Rams last week.
+ This is Geno Smith’s first three-game ATS losing streak since 2014 (24 starts since).
+ Pete Carroll is now 4-8 ATS vs. Sean McVay in his coaching career, including 1-7 ATS vs. McVay and Rams since 2019
The week after playing the Rams, Carroll is 14-8-2 ATS.
+ Seahawks are coming off a road game in Los Angeles against Rams. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans are 34-55-2 ATS over the last two seasons and 50 games under .500 ATS over the last decade (Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers this week).
|Tom Brady, TB|
|Brock Purdy, SF|
+ Buccaneers are listed as underdogs for the first time this season.
+ Tom Brady is 2-1 SU/ATS vs. 49ers in his career.
+ Brady has lost three straight road games SU and ATS, the first time he’s done that since the end of the 2015 to the start of the 2016 season. It happened last for him in the same season back in 2013.
+ Road teams traveling from EST to PST have performed well recently, going 62-41-5 ATS (60.2%) since 2016, when those teams are under .500 SU, like the Bucs, they are 35-17-2 ATS (67.3%) in that span.
+ Bucs road unders are 5-0 this season, going under the total by 13.4 PPG.
+ In the last 20 years, Tom Brady is 7-2 SU/ATS playing in Pacific Standard Time.
+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with just 879 yards. The second-fewest is the Chargers with 1,017 rushing yards.
+ Bucs team total overs are 1-11 this season.
+ In the first half, the under is 11-1 in the Buccaneers 12 games this season, best 1h under win pct this season.
+ Bucs team total unders are 11-1 this season.
+ Tom Brady is 3-6 ATS in his last 9 games on short rest (3-5 ATS w/ TB).
+ 49ers odds to win the Super Bowl dropped from +600 to +1100 after beating the Dolphins, but losing Jimmy Garoppolo for the season due to a broken foot.
+ The 49ers defense have outscored their opponents 73-7 in second halves of their last five games.
+ The 49ers are 42-19 straight up and 35-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.
+ Brock Purdy is the first rookie QB drafted in the 7th round or undrafted to be favored in his first career start since Brad Goebel (PHI) in 1991 (via ESPN).
+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan.
+ What type of stability are the 49ers missing? Garoppolo is 11-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, but he’s won six straight starts in that spot.
+ Kyle Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB:
- Garoppolo: 35-25-1 ATS
- All others: 16-22 ATS
+ Kyle Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB vs. teams who made playoffs previous season:
- Garoppoli: 14-12 ATS
- All others: 3-8 ATS
+ Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
- Favorite: 22-28-1 ATS (9th-worst)
- Underdog: 29-19 ATS (4th-best)
+ 49ers defensive ranks:
- Points Per Game: 1st
- Yards Per Game: 1st
- Yards Per Rush: 1st
- Rush YPG: 1st
- 1st Down/Game: 1st
- Pass TD/INT: 1st
|Tua Tagovailoa, MIA|
|Justin Herbert, LAC|
+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win vs. Chargers.
+ Tua Tagovailoa is 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS in night games in his career.
His only SU loss came earlier this season vs. Bengals
+ Tagovailoa hasn’t performed well ATS on a road trip in his career (second or more consecutive road games). He is 3-2 SU but just 1-4 ATS, winning all three games by 3 pts or less.
+ Tagovailoa in PST: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
+ Dolphins would be the 32nd team in the last 20 years to play consecutive road games in PST. Previous teams went 16-15 SU and 15-14-2 ATS in that second road game and are 1-0 SU/ATS this season with the Falcons beating the Seahawks earlier this season.
+ Dolphins are 16-5 SU in its last 21 games.
+ Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-4 ATS at home and 6-8-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Dolphins are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 5-1 to the over on the road.
+ Tyreek Hill is currently the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +190 odds, he opened at +5000 odds in the preseason. Jalen Hurts is second at +250 odds (he was +3000 in the preseason).
+ Chargers can go under their preseason win total (10.5) with a loss vs. Dolphins.
+ Chargers are up to 66-1 to win the Super Bowl, their highest odds of the season.
+ Justin Herbert is 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS in night games.
Herbert is 1-9 against 2H spread in primetime in his career — least profitable QB against 2H spread in primetime over the last decade.
+ As an underdog, the 6-pt teaser is 14-2 when Justin Herbert is an underdog.
+ Justin Herbert is 12-30-2 (29%) against the second half spread in his career.
Herbert 2H in 2022: 3-9 ATS.
+ Chargers are coming off a road game in Vegas. Since Raiders moved there in 2020, teams are 7-15 ATS week after playing in Vegas. These such teams have lost seven consecutive games SU dating back to last season.
Teams after facing the Raiders are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games dating back to 2021.
After facing Raiders (since 2020) — 18-27 SU, 15-30 ATS (worst in NFL)
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is:
- Under 50: 11-5 to over
- 50 or more: 8-5 to under
+ Herbert career: 21-23 SU, 23-21 ATS.
+ Herbert by time zone:
- EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 12-17 ATS
+ Chargers are coming off a road game in Vegas against Raiders. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans are 34-55-2 ATS over the last two seasons and 50 games under .500 ATS over the last decade (Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers this week).
|Mac Jones, NE|
|Kyler Murray, ARI|
+ Patriots are up to 150-1 to win the Super Bowl, their highest odds this season.
+ Belichick is 37-12 SU, 40-8-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season.
+ Belichick at night over the last 20 years: 63-31 SU, 50-41-3 ATS.
+ In the last 20 years, Belichick is 21-13-2 ATS in the regular season on at least 10 days to prepare, but just 2-3 SU/ATS since Tom Brady left for the Bucs.
+ No disadvantage. Belichick is 34-9 SU, 28-14-1 ATS on short rest over the last 20 years in the regular season.
+ Belichick after failing to cover the spread by 10+ PPG in previous game: 36-19-1 ATS.
Since 2015, he is 16-7-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 10+ PPG in previous game.
+ Mac Jones: 14-13 SU, 13-13-1 ATS. 5-9 SU, 4-9-1 ATS last fourteen starts.
+ Belichick on MNF w/ NE: 21-10 SU, 18-12-1 ATS.
+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:
- With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
- W/O Tom Brady: 42-40-1 ATS
+ Patriots unders are 36-22 (62.1%) on the road dating all the way back to 2016.
+ The Patriots are averaging 2.7 points in the first quarter this season, ranked 28th in the NFL.
+ Matthew Judon is now second in the NFL in sacks with 13, as Nick Bosa took the lead with 14.5 sacks. Judon was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ Beware of Kyler Murray at home. He’s 12-17 ATS and 1-9 SU in his last 10 starts at home. Against the second half spread at home, Murray is 9-19-1 in his career, last of 88 QBs since he was drafted in 2019.
+ Kyler Murray has faced a defense allowing less than 20 PPG 11 times in his career, he is 2-9 SU (5-5-1 ATS).
+ Over the last decade, home underdogs on extended rest (10+ days rest) have struggled going 34-46-2 ATS (42.5%). But this season they are 3-1-1 SU and 4-1 ATS.
+ Cardinals can go under their preseason win total (8.5) with a loss vs. Patriots.
+ Cardinals are 3-9 against the 1st half spread this season (3rd-worst in the NFL).
+ Cardinals are 30th in DVOA this season according to Football Outsiders, the only teams worse? Texans and Colts.
+ Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury:
Overall: 28-33-1 SU, 32-28-2 ATS
- Weeks 1-7: 18-9-1 SU, 20-8 ATS
- Week 8+: 10-24 SU, 12-20-2 ATS
Kingsbury at Texas Tech:
- Games 1-4: 18-6 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
- Games 5+: 17-34 SU, 23-28 ATS
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 14 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 14; not including Thursday Night Football)
|65% of bets at Bills|
|65% of bets at Broncos|
|64% of bets vs. Browns|
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 14
(The most popular bet games for Week 14; not including Thursday Night Football)
|90,000 betting tickets|
|70,000 betting tickets|
|70,000 betting tickets|
Biggest Line Moves in Week 14
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thursday Night Football):
|9.5-pt move vs. Texans|
|9-pt move at Chargers|
|6-pt move at Giants|
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Week 14 picks -> PRO Access
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
Super Bowl Movers: With Jimmy Garoppolo out for 6-8 weeks, the 49ers odds have dropped while the Bengals have moved up recently.
SB: 11-1 (SF was +600 prior to Garoppolo injury)
SB: 11-1 (shortest odds to win SB this season)
Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
W13: 5 for 15 (33%)
W8 to W13: 47 for 90 (52.2%)
2022: 99 for 205 (48.2%)
60%+ – 35-43-2 ATS
66%+ – 18-27-1 ATS
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
NFL Win Total Tracker
Here are your results through 13 weeks:
- Over: Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Eagles
- Under: Rams, Packers, Colts, Broncos, Saints
The Ultimate Teaser
How have teams performed in 6-point teasers this season? Full standings in the “Stat Sheet” above. Best and worst teams below:
6-pt Teaser Rankings
- Best: PHI 11-1, ATL 11-2, SEA NYJ MIN LAC DAL 10-2, CHI 10-3
- Worst: IND 6-7, GB LAR 6-6
Fade The Best!
Teams who entered the regular season with a win total of 10 or higher entering are 33-49-3 ATS this season.
These teams include: Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers and Rams.
- The Favorites Podcast: With a robust NFL slate to bet on, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return for another rollicking betting preview episode.
- Action Network Podcast: As the holidays draw near, Action Network hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey are loaded with yuletide spirit and underdog picks this week. Together they slide their usual Sunday Six Pack down our gambling chimney, along with totals, teasers, and more. Is this the week to jump off the Mike White Train? Is Detroit really better than Minnesota?
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.