NFL Week 15 Main Slate Player Props: Load Up on Texans WRs (Sunday, Dec. 20)

NFL Week 15 Main Slate Player Props: Load Up on Texans WRs (Sunday, Dec. 20) article feature image
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Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Keke Coutee.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.

Let’s break down six prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 15 main slate:

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Washington Football Team RB Peyton Barber

The Pick: Over 28.5 rushing yards (-122)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Antonio Gibson is currently listed as doubtful vs. the Seahawks, which means Barber and J.D. McKissic should handle the majority of the workload out of the backfield.

Those two split the rushing workload virtually down the middle last week without Gibson, with both players receiving at least 11 carries. McKissic was more productive — he averaged 6.18 yards per attempt — but Barber still finished with 37 yards. Overall, Barber has finished with double-digit carries in five games this season, and he’s recorded at least 29 yards in four of them.

Additionally, there’s no guarantee that Barber and McKissic split the workload evenly. Even though that was the case last week, Barber has historically handled the majority of the rushing attempts between these two players while McKissic serves as the pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Houston Texans WR Keke Coutee

The Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (-144)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Coutee is coming off just three targets and three catches last week against the Bears, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. He’s seen a spike in playing time over the past two weeks filling in for the suspended Will Fuller, and he finished with nine targets and eight catches two weeks ago vs. the Colts.

Coutee will be taking on the Colts again this week, so he can clearly find success in this matchup. He does have a tough individual matchup vs. slot cornerback Kenny Moore II, but this number is simply too low given his current role.

Houston Texans WR Chad Hansen

The Pick: Over 33.5 receiving yards (-119)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Let’s double down on the Texans’ wide receivers. Fuller isn’t the only absence they’re dealing with currently. Randall Cobb is not expected to play again this season, and the team released veteran wide receiver Kenny Stills. That has left plenty of opportunities for Coutee and Hansen over the past two weeks.

Hansen has seen seven targets in each of those games, and he’s finished with 101 and 56 receiving yards. His 100-yard performance came against the Colts, and he should continue to be heavily involved for a Texans team that loves to throw the ball. They own the eighth-highest pass rate this season, including the fifth-highest pass rate in one-score games.

I like the idea of pairing the Hansen prop with Coutee’s. If one of those players fails to hit the over, the other player should be a direct beneficiary. We also have the chance to win both props in a sweep.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Keelan Cole

The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-201)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

This prop is juiced up at -201, but it still looks like one of the best values of the week. Cole has been heavily involved in the Jaguars’ offense recently, playing on at least 81% of their offensive snaps in four of the past five weeks. He’s also coming off 12 targets last week, which is not surprising with Gardner Minshew replacing Mike Glennon at quarterback.

Cole has been one of Minshew’s favorite targets this season, and he’s caught at least four passes in seven of eight games where Minshew has played.

Minshew has already been announced as the starting quarterback this week against the Ravens, and it could be a great game environment for Cole, as well. The Jaguars are substantial underdogs, meaning they might need to throw the ball more than usual. That was the scenario that led to Cole getting 12 targets last week.

I don’t mind laying the heavy juice on over 2.5, and I would also play the over on 3.0 or 3.5 if you can find those numbers available at a better price.

Arizona Cardinals TE Dan Arnold

The Pick: Over 1.5 receptions

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

The Cardinals are not a team that prominently feature the tight end, but Arnold has emerged as their top pass catcher at the position. He isn’t playing on a ton of snaps — he finished with just a 30% snap share last week — but he has seen at least three targets in four of his past five games. He’s finished with at least three two catches in three of those contests, so this prop seems underpriced.

Arnold is also in a nice spot vs. the Eagles. They’ve struggled defensively this season, ranking just 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and they also rank just 28th in DVOA against the tight end position.

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