NFL Week 5 Predictions: Expert Picks Against Spread, Moneyline Bet
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson and TJ Watt.
Each week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite spread picks and bets for every Sunday slate. Let's get to our NFL Week 5 predictions.
After a second consecutive week going 2-1, my season-long record on these picks improved to 9-5 (+3.5 units). For my NFL Week 5 predictions and best bets against the spread and on the moneyline, I'll detail my three favorite sides — starting with a pair of early kicks and finishing up with the Sunday Night Football NFC showdown between the Cowboys and 49ers.
If you're curious, the other two sides I considered for my favorite of NFL Week 5 were the Broncos and Falcons.
NFL Week 5 Predictions: Expert Picks Against Spread, Moneyline Bet
I lost when fading my Ravens last week after successfully doing so the week prior against the Colts. Unfortunately, I backed the Browns before any of the quarterback news dropped. Cleveland simply didn't have a shot with a rookie quarterback making his first start against a complex defense.
Beneficial opposing quarterback situations have been a theme of Baltimore's season to date. It started off the season facing a rookie (C.J. Stroud) who was making his first career start in a hostile environment in front of an offensive line that basically got put together during the week, plus a brand new offensive scheme to boot.
Then the Ravens beat up on a hobbled Joe Burrow, who ranks last in EPA+CPOE composite among 34 qualified quarterbacks. They faced another backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew in an outright loss at home before overwhelming Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. As a result, I believe Baltimore's defensive metrics are overvalued at the moment.
Ultimately, this is a classic chance to buy low on the Steelers after they got clubbed in Houston last week.
This also sets up as a classic Mike Tomlin "rah rah" spot. He's not the best Xs and Os coach in the league, but there's nobody better when it comes to rallying the troops with an "us against the world" mentality in the underdog role against a superior team.
Tomlin's against-the-spread (ATS) track record in this situation speaks for itself:
- 53-28-3 ATS (65.4%) as an underdog
- 33-15-1 ATS (68.8%) as an underdog against opponents with a winning record
In both spots, he's the most profitable coach in NFL history by a country mile. Expect the Steelers defense to come out in front of a raucous crowd with its hair on fire, potentially forcing a few key mistakes from Lamar Jackson, who has not fared well against the Steelers in his career.
Jackson's lowest passer rating (67.4) against any single opponent has come against Pittsburgh, which remains the only team he has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (four) against.
I also don't mind selling high on the Ravens after a recent stretch of facing backup — or limited — quarterbacks. Also, the Ravens have dealt with as many injuries as any other team in the league. They've started to get some guys back in the fold but aren't close to 100% yet — those players will also need some time to assimilate when returning to action.
Historically speaking, this is also the price range where you want to fade Jackson, who owns a sparkling 15-1 ATS (93.8%) record as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal. However, as a favorite of three or more points, he's just 20-29 ATS (40.8%).
Lastly, due to the extreme familiarity these coaches and players have with each other, these matchups always find a way to come down to the wire. Since John Harbaugh took over as head coach for Baltimore in 2008, 17 (!) of the 30 meetings between the Ravens and Steelers have been decided by three points or fewer, with an average final score of 20.5-19.5.
In what profiles as a low-scoring game with a falling total in the 30s, I'm happy to take the home divisional 'dog catching over a field goal. Points should be at a premium, especially if the potential windy conditions in the current forecast come to fruition.
Trending: Since 2008, when Tomlin and Harbaugh have faced each other with a spread of at least a field goal, the underdog has gone a stunning 17-1-3 ATS (94.4%).
Similar to the Pittsburgh bet, this is another buy-low spot on a team returning home after a beating in the state of Texas. The Patriots are back in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium after suffering an embarrassing 38-3 defeat at the hands of an angry Cowboys team.
As a result, I expect one of the greatest coaches in NFL history to have his troops in order for this matchup. New England should come out with an inspired effort in a game it needs to save its season. Falling to 1-4 in the loaded AFC with their schedule would likely spell doom for the Patriots.
I also believe this is the bottom of the market on the Patriots, which fits right in line with my overarching principle for how I bet the NFL: looking to buy low and sell high on teams throughout the season in a very reactionary market on a week-to-week basis.
Yes, New England looked awful last week, but all three of its losses came against some of the best teams in the league (Cowboys, Eagles and Dolphins).
While the Patriots came up short at home against Miami and Philadelphia, they actually had a chance to win both games outright in a pair of one-possession losses in which they had 30 more combined net yards.
Meanwhile, this is also a pure fade of Derek Carr, who clearly played through an injury last week in a home loss against Tampa Bay. In that game, Carr finished 23-of-37 for 127 yards for a hysterically low 3.4 yards per attempt on over 40 dropbacks. He also doesn't seem to have a good grasp on this new scheme just yet.
It's hard to imagine him being fully healthy, which would make it almost impossible for the Saints to exploit a banged up New England defense that will have to make do without top edge rusher Matthew Judon and a secondary dealing with a plethora of injuries.
However, as we've seen many times before, Belichick is seemingly able to plug in almost anybody at corner in his defense — the Pats gets results from scheme more than any other stop unit in the league.
Look no further than J.C. Jackson. He went from the top-graded CB in the league with the Patriots a couple years ago to a healthy scratch with the Chargers. Now Jackson is back in the fold with rookie corner Christian Gonzalez out for the season.
The market may be overestimating the impact of these Patriot injuries, especially if Carr is still hampered by an ailment of his own.
I'll happily buy low on the Patriots at home against a potentially limited quarterback. Also, this is a massive coaching mismatch in favor of the Pats.
Trending: Per Action Labs, over the past 20 seasons, Bill Belichick has gone a ridiculous 53-26-1 ATS (67.1%) following a loss, covering by an average margin of over five points per game. That makes him by far the most profitable coach in this scenario.
In case you're wondering, he's still a touch under 60% (17-12-1) against the number with any other quarterback not named Tom Brady. That record also includes an absurd 42-11-1 ATS mark (79.2%) as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown after a SU loss.
I don't know about you, but I can't wait for this one, especially after some of the awful primetime games we've had to endure.
This is obviously a rematch of a playoff matchup we've seen in each of the past two seasons, with the 49ers coming out on top in each instance.
Last year, I bet the Cowboys catching 3.5 in San Francisco. Unfortunately, they lost 19-12 in a game that was tied 9-9 headed into the fourth quarter. The Dallas defense did as good of a job as any team has against Brock Purdy so far in his young career. However, Dallas couldn't overcome two costly turnovers and an injury to Tony Pollard in a fairly even statistical game.
Before the season, the lookahead line for this game was San Francisco -2. Now, that isn't the most efficient market, and we've since gathered four data points from games this season for each squad, but I'm still not too far off from that spread.
Therefore, I simply can't pass up getting over a field goal. In fact, throw in the Eagles, and I'd probably take over a field goal in any matchup between these three teams, regardless of location.
Dallas slightly upgraded its roster over the offseason and will now have a healthy Tony Pollard running behind an offensive line that could potentially get back to full — or close to full — strength on Sunday night. That's critical against a San Francisco defense that has struggled this season against the run, ranking in the bottom five in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate.
If Pollard has success on the ground, and I believe he will, that should open up everything else for the offense, allowing Dak Prescott to attack downfield off play action with some deep shots, which you ultimately must connect on against the 49ers.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, even without Trevon Diggs, Dallas still sports one of the league's best defenses. Most importantly, Dan Quinn will bring pressure from all over with different blitz packages, which is imperative against Brock Purdy.
Admittedly, I've always been a believer in Purdy since his Iowa State days. He has demonstrated the ability to make all of the throws with great command of this brilliantly schemed Kyle Shanahan offense. He also has mobility and outstanding pocket presence that allows him to deal with pressure at a much higher level than Jimmy Garoppolo, who was sorely lacking in both areas.
With that said, you must get pressure on Purdy to have a shot at slowing a 49ers offense that has game-breaking weapons all over the field. His numbers when not blitzed or pressured are spectacular.
The Cowboys can certainly do just that by taking advantage of a 49ers offensive line that still has some question marks after losing a couple of key pieces in the offseason. Last year, Dallas generated a ton of pressure against the right side of San Francisco's offensive line, something it could duplicate again in this game.
The 49ers are one of the most complete teams in the NFL. However, they haven't really been tested en route to their undefeated start. They've looked dominant, but we may have reached the peak of their market value.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have throttled three teams, but had a complete stinker against the Cardinals that I believe is weighing too heavily on how the market is viewing them at this moment. I primarily chalked that game up to one of the few stinkers every good team will have in a season. Plus, Dallas had just lost Diggs at corner and had to deal with a number of offensive line injuries.
Ultimately, I just don't see much separation between these teams, so I'm happy to have more than a field goal in my back pocket with a complete Cowboys team that should come out with a little extra fire against the team that ended their season in each of the past two postseasons.
I think this one is close throughout and goes right down to the wire.
Trending: Since 2003, Mike McCarthy is 33-23-2 ATS (58.9%) as an underdog of at least a field goal.
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