Packers vs. Vikings Odds & Pick: How We’re Betting This Pivotal MNF Showdown

Packers at Vikings Odds & Betting Pick

• Odds: Vikings -5.5
• Over/Under: 47
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Both teams have clinched playoff spots, but the Monday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Vikings is critical for the NFC North title and playoff position.

Even with running back Dalvin Cook out and Alexander Mattison possibly sitting, our experts think that Minnesota will attack a weak Green Bay run defense in one of the biggest clashes of the season.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

The Packers are in good shape heading into this game with just defensive lineman Dean Lowry (ankle) listed as questionable on their injury report.

The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook (shoulder) and it appears they’ll potentially sit Alexander Mattison (ankle) since they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. Their absences leave Mike Boone to handle the majority of the running back work. — Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Vikings Run Offense vs. Packers Run Defense

It’s not difficult to identify the biggest mismatch in this critical NFC North showdown. It all starts with the Vikings rushing attack against the very vulnerable Packers run defense.

Green Bay ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA and are allowing 4.6 yards per rush, which also ranks 25th in the league. Mike Pettine’s defense simply doesn’t get much push up front, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards and dead last in stuff rate, per Football Outsiders. Plus, the Packers also like to run a lot of heavy dime which means they don’t have much bulk at the second level with a very thin linebacker corps.

That’s not ideal against a Minnesota team that runs it at one of the highest frequencies in the NFL. The Vikings average 31.0 rush attempts per game — the third-highest clip in the NFL. Regarding those two trench stats, the Vikings offensive line ranks fifth in both adjusted line yards and stuff rate while the Packers DL ranks 31st and 32nd, respectively.

Even without Dalvin Cook, Minnesota has capable enough backs in Alexander Mattison (if he goes) and Mike Boone. And if the Packers can’t slow down the Vikings rushing attack, that should make the Vikings play action passing attack even more effective, especially with now a presumably healthy receiving corps.

Don’t get fooled too much by the score in their first meeting that Green Bay pulled out 21-16 as that result was extremely misleading. The Vikings ran the ball 27 times for 198 yards in that contest for a gaudy average of 7.3 yards a pop. — Stuckey

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Vikings -5.5
• Projected Total: 45

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 838-741-29 (53.1%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.

A majority of bets are on the Packers-Vikings over but the line has moved from 46.5 to 45. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action. History and pros are on Packers-Vikings under. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Vikings -5.5

Under Mike Zimmer (since 2014), the Vikings have had all sorts of regular-season against-the-spread edges.

• At home: 31-14-1, 33.7% ROI
• As favorites: 36-18-1, 29.4% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.

Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-averse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings are a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. And they don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. And this week, two of Zimmer’s historical edges line up.

As home favorites, the Vikings are 25-10-1 ATS (38.4% ROI).