Panthers vs. 49ers Odds & Picks: Fade San Francisco?
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle
- The undefeated San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers as 5.5-point favorites.
- Our experts analyze the betting odds and matchup, complete with their picks.
Panthers at 49ers Odds & Picks
- Odds: 49ers -5.5
- Over/Under: 42
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Teams that have won four straight games heading into a bye, like the Carolina Panthers, are 13-3 against the spread coming out of bye since 2003. That includes a perfect 9-0 record when that team is on the road.
Ron Rivera is also 24-14 ATS as a road underdog. Since 2003, he's the fifth-most profitable coach as a road underdog among 124 active and former coaches in our Bet Labs database.
So should you follow the historical trends and trust thePanthers to cover against the undefeated 49ers?
Our experts break down every angle of this game, featuring Sean Koerner's projected odds and staff picks.
Panthers-49ers Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Panthers
The Panthers' most crucial loss could be the continued absence of OL Greg Little (concussion), who has been out since Week 4 and hasn't practiced this week. Pro Football Focus has Little graded as one of their best pass-blockers. That said, OL Dennis Daley (groin) has been filling in well. He got in a limited practice on Thursday and should be on track to help contain this 49ers pass rush.
George Kittle (groin) will likely be limited early in the week as the season progresses, so it's likely nothing to be concerned about. San Francisco should continue to be without CB Akhello Witherspoon (foot) since he hasn’t resumed practicing with his foot sprain yet.
Joe Staley (leg) has been getting in limited practices this week, and he’s been targeting a Week 8 or 9 return after fracturing his fibula in mid-September. He'd be a nice boost to the offensive line against a Panthers defense that grades out as the ninth-best pass-rushing unit (per PFF). — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
49ers Running Attack vs. Panthers Run Defense
The biggest mismatch on paper is the run game.
The Panthers rank 30th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, which is cause for concern against a 49ers rushing attack that ranks second with an average of 172.7 rushing yards per game. But if you look deeper, there are opportunities for the Panthers to have better success than past 49ers' opponents.
The 49ers will still be without fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who has been a critical component of their running efficiency. While we can’t conclude much from last week’s game at Washington in poor weather conditions, the prior week against the Rams provided a window into the limited efficiency of a shorthanded San Francisco rushing attack.
In their 20-7 win at Los Angeles, the 49ers were held to season-low 2.4 yards per carry and only 99 total rushing yards. Their offensive line could still be without the services of both starting tackles, Staley and Mike McGlinchey.
The Panthers have struggled to limit running back production, especially since placing DT Kawaan Short on injured reserve. However, they're the NFL’s second-best team at limiting the receiving production of opposing running backs, allowing only 144 total receiving yards, second only to San Francisco.
Coming off their bye week, the Panthers have their best chance to address their biggest defensive weakness. With one of the league’s best secondaries already in place, if the Panthers can address their struggles against the ground game, they'll have an opportunity to pull the road upset.— Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: 49ers -6
- Projected Total: 41.5
This under is popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of -0.73, which gives it a downright silly 81% in-sample predictive win rate. There have been only six games this season that have earned a rating below -0.5, and the under is now 5-1. It makes sense as the 49ers’ defense has been arguably the second-best in the league (behind the Patriots), and based on the fact that they become the slowest paced team in the league when winning (FO).
It may be worth waiting to see if the 64% of the money coming in on the over can push this up to 42.5 or even 43, but I highly doubt sharps will allow that.
Fire up the under here.— Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Panthers +5.5
The 49ers are a legit contender, but this is the perfect time to sell high on the NFC's lone remaining undefeated team.
Their 6-0 record is impressive, but who have the 49ers really beat? Their .282 strength of schedule is by far the worst in the conference; the Packers have the next lowest at .404.
More importantly, San Fran may once again be without its starting tackles in addition to fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who is uber-critical in Kyle Shanahan’s heavy zone-running scheme.
The 49ers average a league-leading 39.0 rush attempts per game and rank second with 172.7 yards on the ground per contest. However, injuries have had a negative impact over the past two weeks. Even if you throw out the mediocre rushing output in Washington as a result of the monsoon-like conditions, they were held to fewer than 100 yards on 43 carries (2.3 yards per attempt) the week before against the Rams.
Carolina’s defense has been vulnerable against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry allowed (23rd in the NFL), but I don't think San Fran can truly take advantage with its undermanned offense.
The Panthers' pass defense, meanwhile, has been one of the most underrated units this season. They’re allowing only 5.6 yards per pass (fourth in NFL) and rank third in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA (compared to 30th against the run).
They've been rock-solid at safety. They have two outstanding linebackers underneath in Shaq Thompson and Luke Kuechly, who have been two of the better coverage linebackers this season. And with Donte Jackson back, they have an excellent trio of corners. Jackson, James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell all rank inside the top 15 in passer rating allowed among 85 corners with at least 125 coverage snaps, and have collectively allowed only three touchdowns while picking off seven passes.
I don't expect the 49ers to get much through the air on the outside as their deep passing attack has been one of their weakest areas — it's one reason they traded for Emmanuel Sanders.
The Panthers come in hot, having won four straight since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback. They've also had no issues winning on the road, boasting a perfect 3-0 road record with wins at Houston and Arizona and in London against Tampa.
This one could go either way, so I'll happily take the 5.5 points.
Both defensive fronts, the top two units in adjusted sack rate, should get plenty of pressure, but Allen should make just enough plays downfield to go along with Christian McCaffrey's reliable production to keep Carolina close with a chance to pull out a fifth straight win. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
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