Falcons vs Panthers Picks: 2 Best Bets for Thursday Night
Falcons vs Panthers Odds
|Moneyline||-144 / +122|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
Panthers vs Falcons Picks
Chris Raybon: The Panthers just got shellacked by the Bengals, but that doesn’t change the fact that they match up well with this Falcons team. The Falcons escaped with a memorable win when these teams met two weeks ago, but the Panthers had the edge in nearly every statistical category:
- Total yards: CAR 478, ATL 406
- Yards per play: CAR 6.55, ATL 6.06
- Passing yards: CAR 311, ATL 239
- Yards per pass: CAR 8.35, ATL 7.97
- Rushing yards: CAR 169, ATL 167
- Yards per rush: CAR 4.69, ATL 4.51
- Turnovers: CAR 1, ATL 2
Falcons -2.5 | Panthers +2.5
The Panthers win that game on the road 90% of the time, so I like the value of them getting points at home in the same matchup. Their defense has played much better at home, where they’ve limited opponents to 21.2 points per game compared to 30.5 on the road. Home field tends to provide an edge for teams in this spot: According to our Action Labs data, home underdogs by fewer than 6 points are 61-40 (61%) ATS since 2018, covering by an average of 2.5 points per game.
We should also get Carolina’s best effort after suffering an embarrassing loss last week. Since 2017, dogs coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 102-68-2 (60%) ATS.
Bet Carolina to +1.
Billy Ward: Initially, the line on this game was outside of the threshold to return value on this prop. Fortunately, we’ve seen markets push the spread down to 2.5 points, giving us some value here.
As is generally the case, even when books are varying pricing on this bet, they tend to neglect to update those lines when the spread/total move. That gives us an edge, since we can wait as long as we need before taking the prop — since the line will remain static.
Games with a total between 40 and 45 with a 2.5-point spread hit the no side of this prop just over 40% of the time in the past 5 seasons. That makes the fair line on this bet +150. With BetMGM giving +165, that’s about a 3% edge.
I wouldn’t take this any lower than +165, unless we see the spread tighten even further.