Panthers vs Rams Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Panthers vs Rams Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6 article feature image

Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Cooper Kupp (left) and Matthew Stafford.

  • The Panthers begin life without Matt Rhule today in Los Angeles.
  • The Rams are heavy favorites (-10) against the Panthers.
  • John LanFranca breaks down the game and lays out how he's betting it below.

Panthers vs. Rams Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16
4:05 p.m. ET
Panthers Odds+10
Rams Odds-10
Moneyline+345 / -455
Odds via Caesars.

To say the 2022 Rams offense is a downgrade from the 2021 version would be quite the understatement.

Sean McVay’s offensive system runs optimally when his team can protect the quarterback and run the ball effectively in the red zone. Thus far this season, the Rams have not been able to accomplish either, causing the defending Super Bowl champs' offense to sputter.

Balance is not about running and passing the ball an equal amount of times or for an equal amount of yards. It's being able to call upon any aspect of your offense needed based on the situation. The Rams simply cannot achieve balance with the current construction of their offensive personnel.

Panthers vs. Rams Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Panthers and Rams match up statistically:

Panthers vs. Rams DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA3110
Pass DVOA3117
Rush DVOA175
Overall DVOA2617
Pass DVOA2522
Rush DVOA2516

The pass protection in front of Matthew Stafford has been inadequate, which is a hard pill to swallow for the pass-heaviest team in the NFL. The Rams average 3.2 yards per carry — 31st in the league — and have only moved the sticks 19 times on the ground the entire season.

The weight of the entire system relies on the arm of Stafford, but in contrast to 2021 when he was only sacked on 4.8% of his dropbacks, that number has increased dramatically to 9.9%.

In turn, that has caused Stafford to avoid looking for the big play as often, opting for short passes and checkdowns. No quarterback in football has thrown a higher percentage of their passes under 10 yards than has the Rams' signal caller.

The Rams' offense has faced a number of formidable foes, including the top-two pass rushes in football in the 49ers and the Cowboys. While the Panthers' pass rush is not quite on the level of those aforementioned fronts, it ranks ninth in pressure rate and blitz at a top-10 rate, as well (33%).

The lack of running game especially hurts the Rams because it puts them in long down and distance situations. According to Football Outsiders, Los Angeles ranks dead last in DVOA when it finds itself in second down & long and 29th in third or fourth & long.

The Rams' offensive line is weakest in the interior, while the Panthers defensive line excels on the inside. Brian Burns is the big name in Carolina's front seven, but it’s Derrick Brown who has taken his game to the next level, ranking ninth out of all interior defenders, according to Pro Football Focus. His counterpart, veteran Matt Ioannidis, also ranks inside the top 30 on the interior and is particularly stout against the run.

Once again, it is fair to expect the Rams to lose the battle at the line of scrimmage.

Betting Picks

What the Panthers do well defensively should present the Rams with similar problems as they've faced throughout the season.

Trends suggest the home team may be getting too much credit in this spot as well. Since 2017, visiting teams catching 10 or more points whose opponent has a losing record are 21-11-1 (65.6%) against the spread.

If the Panthers' offense did not have so many question marks, I would gladly play the side here (I still lean that way). Instead, I will make the Rams prove to me they can create big plays and light up the scoreboard in a manner they have yet to in 2022.

Pick: Rams Team Total Under 26.5 | Bet to 25.5

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