Patrick Mahomes Betting Career Manifesto: 15 Facts, Trends & Notes Entering Super Bowl 57
In Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career, he has won almost 80% of his games. Straight up (SU) on the moneyline that is. Mahomes is 74-19 SU (79.6%), including the playoffs.
For some perspective, only three QBs in NFL history have even a 70%+ SU win percentage with a minimum 100 games played: Daryle Lamonica, Tom Brady and Roger Staubach, with Lamonica on top at 74.8%.
We know Mahomes is a winner. But does he cover?
In his 93 career starts (regular season and playoffs), he is 48-43-2 (52.7%) against the spread (ATS). When it comes to profitability, a consistent $100 spread bettor would be up just $278 backing Mahomes in each of his starts.
Using the Bet Labs database, which goes back 20 years to 2003 for the NFL, Mahomes has the best win percentage SU of any QB, but ATS he’s ranked just 40th.
|Patrick Mahomes, KC|
|Jalen Hurts, PHI|
How to Bet Patrick Mahomes
Let’s go through 15 trends, notes and facts for Mahomes and Super Bowl 57:
1. Fade the Move With Mahomes
The Chiefs opened as 2-point favorites but are now underdogs in Super Bowl 57. In Mahomes’ career, when the line moves away from him (e.g., -2 to +2), he is 23-19-1 ATS. When the line moves in his favor, he’s 16-21-1 ATS vs. the closing line.
2. How to Handicap Experience
Mahomes has the Super Bowl experience edge over Jalen Hurts.
- QBs with Super Bowl experience, facing a QB with no SB experience, are 19-15 SU and 16-18 ATS all time.
- This will be the 21st time in Super Bowl history when one QB has a 2+ Super Bowl experience gap — the experienced quarterback is 12-8 SU.
3. The King of Tossups
Mahomes has played 25 games in his career either as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. He is 18-6-1 ATS in those games. In all other contests, he is 30-37-1 ATS.
In the last 20 years, he is the eighth-most profitable QB against the spread in “toss-up” games.
4. Dog the Bounty Hunter
We talked about it for a few days last week and now we’re in the same boat again. Mahomes has closed as an underdog nine times in his career. He is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS.
After last week’s close call, this would be the first time in Mahomes’ career he opens as a favorite and closes as an underdog.
5. Best vs. The Best
Mahomes’ passing yards prop is set at 290.5. That’s the highest passing yards prop total against the Eagles defense since they faced Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes in October last season. In the Eagles-Chiefs meeting last season, Mahomes threw for 278 yards and went under his prop total.
Opposing QBs are 3-16 to the over for their passing yards prop against the Eagles this season.
6. Away From Arrowhead
When it comes to covering the spread, Mahomes prefers the road than Arrowhead Stadium. In Kansas City, he’s 23-25-1 ATS, away he’s 25-18-1 ATS.
Though recently, it hasn’t looked as pretty.
Mahomes ATS Away From Home (Road/Neutral):
- 2020 – 2022: 12-14 ATS
- 2017 – 2019: 13-4-1 ATS
7. Dual Threat
Against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes and Travis Kelce (13) passed Joe Montana and Jerry Rice (12) for the second-most touchdowns all time in the playoffs for a QB-Receiver duo.
Mahomes and Kelce are now two TDs away from tying Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (15) for the most all time.
8. Back To Back …
Mahomes is just 4-11 ATS this season after a SU win in his last game, and 18-26 ATS after a win since 2020.
He has played nine games with at least two weeks of preparation, when the Chiefs are coming off a SU win — Kansas City is 8-1 SU in the next game. The only loss? Super Bowl LV vs. the Buccaneers.
9. Road Warrior
This season, the under is 8-2 for Mahomes and the Chiefs when they play at Arrowhead Stadium, making Mahomes the most profitable QB to the under at home in the NFL.
Away from home this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-3 to the over. Since the beginning of last season, they are 12-5 to the over away from Arrowhead with Mahomes.
In his two Super Bowls though, it is worth noting that both games went under the total, with both totals closing in the 50s.
10. The K.C. D
The Chiefs defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games. When the K.C. defense gets hot, watch out. Mahomes and Co. are 17-2 SU after allowing 20 pts or fewer in consecutive games, winning 10 in a row dating back to 2020.
11. Where’s The Magic?
Mahomes is 7-10-2 against the second-half spread this season, his least profitable 2H ATS year as a pro.
After losing the second-half spread against the Bengals, Mahomes has a 8-4-1 2H ATS record in the playoffs.
Mahomes has been tied or trailed at the half twice in the AFC playoffs — he’s won and covered both second halves.
In the Chiefs’ last nine games with Mahomes, Kansas City is 0-7-2 against the second-half spread entering the Super Bowl.
12. Interception Free
For the third consecutive game, Mahomes has kept a clean sheet in the interception column. He hasn’t gone four straight games without a pick since Oct. 2020.
In Mahomes’ two previous Super Bowls, he has thrown four interceptions, two in each game.
Mahomes is expected to win the MVP Award this season after receiving 49 of the 50 possible first-place votes for the AP All-Pro team. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?
- Won Super Bowl: 10 (last? Kurt Warner in 1999)
- Lost Super Bowl: 15
- Conference Champ: 9
- Divisional Round: 13
- Wild Card: 3
- Lost first playoff game: 16
14. West Coast Vibes
Super Bowl 57 will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Mahomes has played 19 games in his pro career either in the Pacific or Mountain Standard time zone.
Mahomes is 17-2 straight up in those games. His two losses? Back in 2018 against the Rams and Seahawks. Mahomes is 7-0 SU in MST and 13-0 SU in PST and MST since the start of the 2019 season.
15. Here We Go Again …
The Chiefs are underdogs. The public is fading Kansas City.
We heard the same story last week early on and K.C. ended up closing as the favorite. The Chiefs closed with 37% of the tickets, the lowest bet % of Mahomes’ 93-start career.
Currently in the Super Bowl, they are at 36% of tickets.
This would only be the third time Mahomes closes as a favorite, with the minority share of the ticket count:
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