Super Bowl 57 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Welcome to Super Bowl week and the official Super Bowl 57 betting primer. We're here to answer some questions, dish out some stats and facts, talk props, sides, totals, exotics, Gatorade, the anthem and more.
Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Feb. 12, 12 p.m. ET.
1. The Historical Underdog
Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 against the spread (87.5%) as an underdog in his career, the best win percentage as an underdog since the merger. If Mahomes closes as an underdog in Super Bowl 57, it will prevent him from tying Peyton Manning for the longest streak (14) as a betting favorite in the playoffs in Super Bowl history.
2. Will The Line Win Again?
Follow the line movement in the Super Bowl. Eighteen times in Super Bowl history, the line has moved 1.5 points or more from opening to closing. The team's direction the line moves toward (-4 to -6, +6 to +4.5) is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.
The two losses: SB 48 Broncos vs. Seattle, SB 25 Bills vs. Giants.
3. Will It Happen Again?
Last year, in Super Bowl 56, the Rams won 23-20 but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread, giving the cover to the Bengals. Entering the game, Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or less had been 28-0 ATS.
Now, entering Super Bowl 57, 21 Super Bowls have had a spread of four or fewer. The straight-up winner has covered all 21 – 11 favorites SU & 10 dogs SU.
Super Bowl LVII
Super Bowl Betting History
Point Spreads
 | SU (Straight Up) | ATS (Against The Spread) |
| Favorites | 36-20 | 27-27-2 |
| Super Bowl Winners | 56-0 | 47-7-2 |
| Favorites (1 seed v 1 seed)* | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Chiefs in Super Bowl | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Eagles in Super Bowl | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| * 14th time in Super Bowl history (Last: '18 Eagles/Patriots) | ||
Over/Unders
| Over-Under-Push |
| Totals in Super Bowl History | 26-28-1 |
| Totals of 50 or more | 3-9-1 |
| Last 10 Years* | 5-5 |
| Chiefs in Super Bowl** | 0-3 |
| Eagles in Super Bowl | 1-2 |
| * 6-6 past 12 years, 7-7 past 14 years ** No Over/Under in Super Bowl I | |
Betting Markets
 Chiefs vs. Eagles Channel: FOX | 6:30 p.m. ET Spread%: PHI 59% tickets | 57% handle Total%: Over 59% tickets | 62% handle Line: PHI (-1.5) | O/U: 51  |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
7-12 ATS 16-3 SU | 48-43-2 ATS 74-19 SU | 8-5 ATS 10-3 SU |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
10-7 ATS 16-1 SU | 19-17-1 ATS 25-12 SU | 2-1 ATS 2-1 SU |
Spreads
- Public sides are 10-9 straight up and against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2004.
For the first time since 2010-11, the public side has lost ATS in consecutive Super Bowls (2021-22). The public side last lost three straight between 2005-07 with the Patriots, Seahawks & Bears.
- Follow the line movement in the Super Bowl.
Eighteen times in Super Bowl history, the line has moved 1.5 points or more from the opening to closing lines. The team's direction the line moves toward (-4 to -6, +6 to +4.5) is 16-2 straight up and 14-4 against the spread.
The two losses: SB 48 Broncos vs. Seattle, SB 25 Bills vs. Giants.
- Follow the money.
The team that closed with the higher spread handle percentage has predicted 5 of the past 6 Super Bowl winners. The Chiefs against the Bucs was the only loss.
Over/Unders
Overall in Super Bowl history, the under is 11-8 in the last 19 Super Bowls.
- The over has received public support 15 times in those 19 games: The over is just 6-9.
- The Super Bowl total has only closed with the majority of the tickets on the under three times in the Bet Labs database: 2004, 2012 and 2014. The under is just 1-2.
Overall, the public is just 7-11 betting Super Bowl totals (landed exactly 50%/50% in 2005).
All betting market data is via the Action Labs platform and the Bet Labs database.
Super Bowl Game Props
| Market | Stat | Bet Now at FanDuel w/QuickSlip |
|---|---|---|
| QB Interceptions | Combined interceptions have gone over 1.5 in four straight Super Bowls, including 7 of the past 9. | + P. Mahomes + J. Hurts |
| Longest TD | Longest TD has gone under in 6 of the past 8 Super Bowls (went over last year) | Under |
| Shortest TD | Shortest TD has gone under in 8 of the past 10 Super Bowls (3 straight) | Under |
| HT/FT | In the past 10 Super Bowls, the SU winner has not trailed at the end of the first quarter or the half in nine of them (exception? Falcons/Patriots) | + Chiefs + Eagles |
| Coin Toss | The past 8 winners of the coin toss have all deferred and then all subsequently lost the game straight up. The past 12 winners of the coin toss have deferred to the second half. Last to receive? Saints vs. Colts in SB 44 | Coin Toss Winner Loses Game |
| Will there be a safety? | Safety hasn’t occurred in 8 straight Super Bowls (hit in 3 straight before that). | No Safety |
| Early Score | There hasn’t been a score in the first 6 minutes of the past 6 Super Bowls. Last quick score? Broncos/Panthers in Super Bowl 50. | No Points First 6 min. |
| Defensive or Special Teams TD | A defensive or special teams TD hasn’t been scored in 5 straight Super Bowls. The last? Falcons/Patriots and Broncos/Panthers in back-to-back years. | No DEF/ST TD |
| 2-pt Conversion | A two-point conversion hasn’t been converted in 5 straight Super Bowls. The last? Falcons/Patriots and Broncos/Panthers in back-to-back years. | No 2-pt Conversion |
| Score Last/Game Result | Team that scored last has won each of the past 17 Super Bowls. Last Super Bowl where the team who scored last lost was Patriots-Eagles 2004-05. | Team to score last wins game SU |
| Common Final Margin | The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is 3 pts (7X). The next closest is 4 pts (6X). | Game decided by exactly 3 pts |
What is QuickSlip? |
Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel! |
Team Trends
Bad ATS
Chiefs entered the playoffs 6-11 ATS (35.3%). In the 56-year history of the Super Bowl, no team has won the Super Bowl with less than a 40% ATS win pct entering the playoffs. The previous teams went 0-3 straight up.
Worst ATS Teams to Make a Super Bowl:
- 2004 Panthers, 6-10 ATS (37.5%) (NE 32-29, NE -7)
- 1980 Rams, 5-10-1 ATS (33.3%) (PIT 31-19, PIT -10.5)
- 1977 Vikings, 5-8-1 ATS (38.5%) (OAK 32-14, OAK -4.5)
Chiefs have won 7 consecutive games SU entering Super Bowl
KC is 8th team past 20 years to enter Super Bowl on at least a 7-game SU winning streak.
Those teams are 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS). All 8 games had team on the streak winning the game or the margin 4 pts or less.
Chiefs entered 2019-20 Super Bowl on 8-game win streak and beat the San Francisco 49ers.
Chiefs Defense Helping Mahomes
The Chiefs defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games. When the K.C. defense gets hot, watch out. Mahomes and Co. are 17-2 SU after allowing 20 pts or fewer in consecutive games, winning 10 in a row dating back to 2020.
If Kansas City closes as an underdog
The Chiefs' streak of 15 consecutive playoff games as a favorite would come to an end (longest streak in the Super Bowl era).
If Kansas City closes as a favorite
The Chiefs would be favored in their 16th straight playoff game — the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Their last playoff game as an underdog? 2016 Divisional at Patriots. Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady. The Patriots won 27-20.
Rematch Momentum
Chiefs-Bengals was a rematch of last year's AFC title game. In the Super Bowl era, this was the 7th time two franchises met in at least two straight Conference Championships. The winner of the rematch is 7-1 in the Super Bowl – the only loss was the 1987 Broncos.
Even more unique. Chiefs got revenge on the Bengals in the rematch. That’s only the 4th time thats happened. Team loses 1st, wins 2nd. Those three teams are 3-0 SU in the Super Bowl.
Another Eagles Longshot
The Eagles were 25-1 to win it all in the preseason, which ranked 13th in the NFL behind teams like the Colts, Broncos and Rams.
Over the past 40 years, the Eagles at 25-1 odds would be the seventh-highest odds to win the Super Bowl.
Keeping It Low
Eagles have allowed just 7 points in consecutive games (14 in total) entering the Super Bowl.
Teams to allow less than 14 pts in consecutive games entering Super Bowl since 2000:
- 2018 Eagles – Won
- 2003 Bucs – Won
- 2001 Giants & Ravens
On The Road
In the Super Bowl, the Eagles will be playing their first game away from home since they faced the Cowboys in Dallas the day before Christmas — exactly 50 days to the day of Super Bowl LVII.
- Eagles were the 8th team to play their 4th consecutive home game entering a Conference Championship in the last 20 years. Those teams are now 7-1 SU. The only loss? 2019 Saints vs. Rams
- Those previous six teams to win in the Conference Championship after the home streak went an even 3-3 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl.
Early & Often
Eagles are 14-5 against the first half spread, the most profitable first-half ATS team this season.
Eagles are 16-3 in a 6-pt teaser this season, tied for the 2nd-best record in the NFL behind the Chargers at 16-2.
Sack Masters
Eagles have 8 total sacks in the playoffs, bringing their total to 78 on the season, the 3rd-most sacks for any team in a single season since the merger (1970).
Most Sacks in a Season All-Time (Including Playoffs)
- 1984 Bears (82 sacks)
- 1985 Bears (80 sacks)
- 2022 Eagles (78 sacks)
Since the NFL merger in 1970, nine teams have recorded 65+ sacks as a team in the regular season. Eagles are the first of those nine to even make a Super Bowl.
Quarterback Trends
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
➤2022 Record: 16-3 SU | 7-12 ATS
➤Playoffs: 10-3 SU | 8-5 ATS➤Trends:
• The Chiefs are underdogs. The public is fading Kansas City. We heard the same story last week early on and K.C. ended up closing as the favorite. The Chiefs closed with 37% of the tickets, the lowest bet % of Mahomes' 93-start career. This would only be the third time Mahomes closes as a favorite, with the minority share of the ticket count:Mahomes as Dog W/ Under 50% Tickets
2022 vs. Bills (-2.5) | BUF, 24-20
2018 at Chargers (-3.5) | KC, 38-28
• Mahomes’ 18th start in January or later. He’s been favored the previous 17 entering the Super Bowl — he’s 13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS.
• Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer (or an underdog) in his career (30-37-1 ATS as favorite of 3.5 or more).
• This will be the 7th Super Bowl to feature the league leader in regular season passing yards (Mahomes). Each of the previous 6 lost SU in the Super Bowl. The first was Dan Marino in 1984. The other 5 have all come after the year 2000 (Brady X2, P. Manning, R. Gannon, K. Warner).
• Mahomes is 7-10-2 against the second-half spread this season, his least profitable 2H ATS year as a pro.
+ After losing the second-half spread against the Bengals, Mahomes has a 8-4-1 2H ATS record in the playoffs.
+ In the Chiefs' past nine games with Mahomes, Kansas City is 0-7-2 against the second-half spread entering the Super Bowl.
• Away from home this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-3 to the over. Since the beginning of last season, they are 12-5 to the over away from Arrowhead with Mahomes.Heading West
Super Bowl Location: Glendale, Arizona➤Time Zone: Mountain Standard Time (MST)Mahomes has played 19 games in his pro career either in the Pacific or Mountain Standard time zone. Mahomes is 17-2 straight up in those games. His two losses? Back in 2018 against the Rams and Seahawks. Mahomes is 7-0 SU in MST and 13-0 SU in PST and MST since the start of the 2019 season.
Favored or Underdog
➤If Favored: Mahomes would be favored in his 14th straight playoff game (T-longest streak all-time with Peyton Manning).➤If Underdog: Mahomes streak of 13 consecutive playoff games to start his career as a favorite would come to an end. Longest streak ever to begin career and 1 game shy of Peyton Manning’s streak of 14 straight playoff games as a favorite.All The Hardware
The Eventual MVP? Mahomes is expected to win the MVP Award this season after receiving 49 of the 50 possible first-place votes for the AP All-Pro team. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?
➤Won MVP: 10 total times (Last? Kurt Warner in 1999)➤The Rest: 56 lost in the Super Bowl or prior
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts
➤2022 Record: 16-1 SU | 10-7 ATS
➤Playoffs: 2-1 SU | 2-1 ATS➤Trends:
• Hurts is 21-4 (84%) straight up in games in which his team is favored (13-11-1 ATS). In the past 20 years, no QB (minimum 20 starts) has a better win pct as a favorite than Hurts.Hurts' Four Career Losses as a Favorite
2022 vs. Commanders | PHI (-510), Lost 32-21
2021 at Giants | PHI (-184), Lost 13-7
2021 at Raiders | PHI (-108), Lost 33-23
2020 at Cowboys | PHI (-164), Lost 37-17
• This season, the Eagles are 16-1 straight up with Jalen Hurts and 0-2 SU without him.
• Hurts has had success vs. the best of the best this season, going 7-0 SU vs. playoff teams.
• Hurts, 24, would be the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl out of the NFC (Jared Goff was 24 in 2019).
"Wit" or "Witout"
Super Bowl Location: Glendale, ArizonaThe Super Bowl is in Arizona, not Philadelphia. Hurts has performed much better at home than on the road.
➤Home: 13-5-1 ATS – 10-3 ATS at home as an underdog or a favorite of seven points or fewer.
➤Away: 6-12 ATS – Under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.Nerves of Steel
Super Bowl Experience: Mahomes (3rd) | Hurts (1st)
➤Does It Matter?QBs with Super Bowl experience (started a SB prior to this year), facing a QB with no SB experience, are 19-15 SU and 16-18 ATS all-time.
➤Even More Experience:This will be the 21st time in Super Bowl history where one QB has a 2+ Super Bowl experience gap, the experienced QB is 12-8 SU.We Had Them in the First Half
➤First Half King: Jalen Hurts is 13-4 against the first-half spread this season, the most profitable QB ATS in the first half in the NFL.
➤Last Year: Hurts was 5-11 against the first-half spread
➤Rarely Trailing: Hurts is 11-1-2 on the 1H moneyline in his past 14 starts.
➤Dead Even: Hurts is 8-8-1 against the second-half spread this season.
The Andy Reid Bowl
Chiefs Head Coach
Andy Reid
Reid's Career as Head Coach with Eagles & Chiefs
| Eagles (14 yrs) | Chiefs (10 yrs) |  Edge |
| Regular Season SU | 130-93-1 (58.3%) | 117-45 (72.2%) | |
| Regular Season ATS | 120-99-5 (54.8%) | 86-73-3 (54.1%) | |
| Playoffs SU | 10-9 | 11-8 | |
| Playoffs ATS | 11-7 | 9-9 | |
| Division Titles | 6 | 7 | |
| Super Bowl Appearances | 1 | 3 | |
Reid – Sirianni Connection
When Andy Reid was fired by Philadelphia and hired by Kansas City in 2012, Nick Sirianni was the WR coach in KC. Reid didn’t keep Sirianni on his staff.Sirianni got his NFL start with the Chiefs, having spent four seasons in Kansas City from 2009-12 in a variety of roles.
Andy Reid becomes the 5th head coach to face his former team in the Super Bowl. The last was Pete Carroll back in 2014.
  | NE (-1) | NE, 28-24 | |
  | OAK (-4) | TB, 48-21 | |
  | DEN (-7.5) | DEN, 34-19 | |
  | IND (-18) | NYJ, 16-7 |
Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 3-0 straight up and against the spread vs. the Eagles.
Andy Reid – 4th SB appearance | Nick Sirianni – 1st SB appearance
Coaching experience in the Super Bowl “doesn’t matter.” Coach that has more experience is just 18-17 SU and 16-19 ATS. When they have a 2-plus Super Bowl experience gap, they are just 10-14 SU and 8-15-1 ATS.
Player Stats & Props
Passing yards results of the past 10 years (20 QB props):
- 11 of 20 went under
- 3x both went over
- 4x both went under
- 4x QB went over in a losing effort (Brady vs PHL & SEA, Cam vs DEN, Kaep vs BAL)
Patrick Mahomes
- For the third consecutive game, Mahomes kept a clean sheet in the interception column. He hasn't gone four straight games without a pick since Oct. 2020.
In Mahomes' two previous Super Bowls, he has thrown four interceptions, two in each game.
- Mahomes has gone under 10 rushing yards in 6 of his past 8 games.
- Mahomes has gone under 2.5 pass TDs in 7 of his past 9 games.
- This Super Bowl will be the 7th to feature a starting quarterback that led the regular season in passing yards – this year, that is Patrick Mahomes. Each of the previous 6 lost straight up.
| NE (-4.5) | PHI, 41-33 | |
| DEN (-1.5) | SEA, 43-8 | |
 | NE (-12.5) | NYG, 17-14 | |
| OAK (-4) | TB, 48-21 | |
 | STL (-14) | NE, 20-17 | |
  | SF (-3) | SF, 38-16 |
Travis Kelce
- Against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes and Travis Kelce (13) passed Joe Montana and Jerry Rice (12) for the second-most touchdowns all time in the playoffs for a QB-Receiver duo.
Mahomes and Kelce are now two TDs away from tying Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (15) for the most all time.
Kelce has a touchdown in five consecutive playoff games, the 2nd-longest streak for a TE in the playoffs all-time. Gronkowski caught a TD in six consecutive playoff games between 2015 and 2018.
Isiah Pacheco
Since the year 2000, five rookie RBs have carried the ball 10+ times in a Super Bowl. They are 5-0 SU & ATS in those games.
- 2019 Sony Michel NE
- 2013 Bernard Pierce BAL
- 2011 James Starks GB
- 2007 Joseph Addai IND
- 2001 Jamal Lewis BAL
Jerick McKinnon
Jerick McKinnon has been held without a TD in the playoffs. He scored a Receiving TD in his past 6 games to finish out the regular season.
Most Rec TD Single Season by RB Last 30 Years (Incl. playoffs)
- 9 – Jerick McKinnon (2022)
- 9 – Marshall Faulk (2000 & 2001)
Jalen Hurts
- Hurts has thrown under 250 passing yards in three straight games, 8 of his past 10 games and 11 of his past 14 games.
Nine of the past 10 QBs to face the Chiefs went under their passing yards prop.
- Hurts has only eclipsed 30 or more pass attempts in 4 of his past 12 games. On the Chiefs side though, opposing QBs have gone over their passing attempts prop in five straight games.
- The past 5 QBs to face the Chiefs have all thrown exactly 1 TD pass against them. Prior to that, 14 of the past 16 QBs had gone over their pass TD prop vs. Kansas City's defense.
- The Eagles OL has been fantastic this year.
83 OL have played 600+ pass-blocking snaps this season, 19 of those 83 OL have allowed one sack or fewer. Four of those linemen were Eagles: Isaac Seumalo, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce & Lane Johnson.
Dallas Goedert
Goedert has been very consistent. He has 5+ rec in 4 straight playoff games, tied for the Eagles' longest playoff streak since the merger (Zach Ertz and Duce Staley).
Miles Sanders
Sanders has gone under 1.5 receptions in 7 consecutive games and in 12 of his past 14 games.
Novelty Props
Gatorade
Full Gatorade info since 2001: Year-by-year selections, current odds and most choices in total:
National Anthem
Full National Anthem info since 2007: Year-by-year times, over/unders and results:
Tidbits:
+ 5 of the past 6 anthems have been under 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic.
+ Chris Stapleton's over/under of 2:05 is the highest since the last country singer, Luke Bryan, who went under by five seconds.
Coin Toss
Full coin toss info in 56-year Super Bowl history: Year-by-year heads/tails, team who won the toss and did they end up winning the game:
Super Bowl MVP
Let's first take a look at each Super Bowl MVP and their odds over the past 20 years:
Two Big Favorites
Both Jalen Hurts (+110) and Patrick Mahomes (+125) are under +200 to win the Super Bowl MVP entering the game, just the second time in the past 20 years both the 1st and 2nd favorites are under +200 to win Super Bowl MVP (2021 Brady/Mahomes).
Last Time It Happened:
- 2021: Mahomes (-105) & Brady (+190)
Odds & Ends
10 of the past 13 Super Bowl MVPs have been under 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith).
Cooper Kupp won at 6-1 odds last year. At that price or lower, its been 12 of the past 16 Super Bowl MVP winners.
Chiefs Super Bowl MVP History
| Patrick Mahomes | Travis Kelce | |
| Super Bowl 57 | +125 | +1100 | |
| Super Bowl 55 (TB 31, KC 9) | -105 | +1100 | |
| Super Bowl 54 (KC 31, SF 20) | +105(*) | +2000 | |
| * Won Super Bowl MVP | |||
How Did They Perform?
Super Bowl 55
+ Mahomes: 270 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
+ Kelce: 10 rec, 133 yds
Super Bowl 54
+ Mahomes: 286 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
+ Kelce: 6 rec, 43 yds, TD
Can a Defensive Player Win the Award?
Four defensive players have won the award since 2000. Here is how the defender performed, their odds and how the QB did in the game.
+ 2015 Von Miller, Denver Broncos (+2500) — 2.5 sacks, 2 Forced Fumbles
Neither QB threw a TD pass.
+ 2013 Malcolm Smith, Seattle Seahawks (+10000) — INT, TD, 10 tackles and Fumble Recovery
Russell Wilson: 206 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
+ 2002 Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (N/A) — 2 Interceptions
Brad Johnson: 215 pass yds, 2 TD, INT
+ 2000 Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens (N/A) — 4 Pass deflections, 5 tackles .. allowed 7 pts
Trent Dilfer: 153 pass yds, TD
Touchdown Zone
This section is everything and anything touchdown for the Super Bowl and the Chiefs & Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
Referee Trends
The lead official for Super Bowl 57 will be Carl Cheffers. Here are a few trends and notes on Cheffers:
+ 2021: Bucs/Chiefs (-3, 55) TB, 31-9 (15 penalties) + 2017: Falcons/Patriots (-3, 57) NE, 34-28 (13 penalties) | ||
Cheffers has refereed 14 total Eagles games. PHI is 6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS. 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS with Hurts (Week 18 Giants game). | ||
Player images via StatMuse
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