Patriots vs. Texans Prop Bets & Picks for Sunday Night Football
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller
- Mike Randle identifies the top NFL prop bets for the New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
- Find his picks for the over/unders on Deshaun Watson's rushing yards and Will Fuller's receptions below.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Texans vs. Patriots Prop Bets
My Sunday night prop bets have hit at a 79.4% (27-7) rate this season. Now let’s take a look at two props offering value for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans.
Texans WR Will Fuller
The Pick: Under 4.5 Receptions (-148)
Bet Quality: 8/10
The stinginess of the New England pass defense encourages this prop. The Patriots have allowed the fewest wide receiver receptions (109) and receiving yards (1202) on the season. Overall, they’ve allowed the fewest wide receiver fantasy points as well.
Fuller is the quintessential “feast or famine” player, as he’s failed to crest four receptions in exactly half of his eight games this season. He’s always a threat for a deep play, but it’s difficult to project him for five or more receptions against the league’s top pass defense.
Our projection of 3.8 receptions is 11% under the implied total of 4.3 receptions. I would bet this prop down to -170.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
The Pick: Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Bet Quality: 8/10
Watson has ran only 12 and 10 yards over the past two games, respectively, and will likely stay conservative against an opportunistic New England defense.
The Patriots have allowed the 15th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but that’s understandably skewed by Lamar Jackson’s 61 rushing yards against the Patriots in Week 9. If you remove that game, the Patriots have allowed only 9.9 quarterback rushing yards per game.
Look for Houston to attack New England’s defense on the ground, avoiding the Patriots’ top-ranked pass defense as much as possible. With Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson as dual offensive threats, it’s difficult to envision Watson reaching 28 rushing yards against a Bill Belichick defense.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 24.9 rushing yards is 13% below his implied total. I would bet this 8-rated prop up to -140.
This season 8-rated props are hitting at a 57% (447-330-5) rate.