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Giants vs Eagles Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14

Giants vs Eagles Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14 article feature image
Credit:

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.

  • The Giants are catching 7.5 points in Week 14 against the Eagles.
  • The Eagles need the win to stay strong atop the NFC East.
  • John LanFranca breaks down the game and lays out how he's betting it below.

Giants vs Eagles Odds

Sunday, Dec. 11
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Giants Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-118
44.5
+275
Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-104
44.5
-340
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Few NFL analysts predicted how good the NFC East was going to be this season. Every team in the division enters Week 14 with a winning record, and collectively, they are 14-1 against the AFC, whereas the rest of the NFC is 17-28 in inter-conference play.

So, how what about our Giants vs Eagles pick?

I still don’t think the betting markets have fully grasped how tough this division is, and I expect both the Eagles and Giants to be battle-tested by the time it’s do-or-die in January.

Head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale deserve an immense amount of credit for turning around the culture in New York. However, Martindale’s defense has me concerned that it may amplify the strengths of the Eagles’ potent offense.

Giants vs Eagles Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Giants and Eagles match up statistically:

Giants vs Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 3 28
Pass DVOA 3 28
Rush DVOA 1 27
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 15 6
Pass DVOA 10 2
Rush DVOA 13 23

Martindale brings an ultra-aggressive style that has translated to New York blitzing on a league-high 45.5% of opponent passing attempts. This style has been born out of necessity as the Giants defense can’t pressure the quarterback with their front four, and even with the help of additional rushers, find themselves near the bottom of the league in adjusted sack rate at only 6.0%.

Over the past four weeks, this defense ranks 28th in DVOA, as the loss of Adoree’ Jackson, New York’s best defensive back, has made it more difficult to successfully play man coverage behind the blitz. The current starting cornerbacks — Fabian Moreau, Nick McCloud and Darnay Holmes — rank 64th, 80th, and 106th, respectively, in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade metric (out of 119 qualifying corners).

Jalen Hurts has gotten quite comfortable facing extra pass rushers this season, as he has been blitzed at the seventh-highest rate of any quarterback in the NFL (per Sharp Football). Hurts has completed 62.2% of his passes against the blitz, throwing for seven touchdowns and only one interception.

Another tendency of Hurts when facing the combination of man coverage behind the blitz is to rely heavily on A.J. Brown. The superstar wide receiver has commanded a target on nearly one-third of his routes versus man-to-man coverage, while seeing the ball thrown his way on only 20% of his routes versus zone.


Bet Philadelphia vs. New York at FanDuel


No team plays more man coverage than the Giants. If the blitz can’t get to Hurts, both Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to have huge days.

The Eagles offense has shown a willingness to be aggressive and attack the weakness of their opponent through the air in recent weeks. Against Tennessee, Philly started the game with 19 passes in its first 23 plays. The Eagles jumped on the Titans early and forced them out of their game plan.

The Giants offense will have to answer consistently if they want to keep it close. Since Week 8, Saquon Barkley has averaged only 3.32 yards per carry, getting stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on over 22% of his carries.

While rush defense appears to be the Eagles’ Achilles heel (at least on paper), it may be time to start adjusting their outlook moving forward. Over the past four weeks, they have a -7.3% DVOA against the run and have allowed opposing rushers to average only 3.73 yards per carry.

With Barkley not 100% healthy and the running game faltering, the onus may be on Daniel Jones to put up points against an Eagles defense that ranks second in pass DVOA.

Betting Picks

Even the casual bettor will look at this line and be tempted to grab the full touchdown with the home dog against a divisional opponent.

As of writing this, about 60% of the tickets have been written on the home team, yet the line blew through the key number of 7. All of those factors add up to a strong lean on the under, but that lean stems from the fact the Giants offense has scored over 20 points just once all season. 

When it comes to deciphering how the teams match up against one another, the Giants’ defensive issues cannot be ignored. If New York puts its corners on an island against Brown and Smith, the Eagles will once again light up the scoreboard.

To make matters worse, Leonard Williams, PFF’s No. 8 interior defender, is listed as doubtful for this game. Martindale is either going to have to take his chances and be aggressive by playing man against one of the league’s premier mobile quarterbacks, or entirely change the way his defense plays.

Either way, I don’t believe the Giants have the personnel to slow down the top-ranked DVOA offense over the past six weeks, and their offense simply does not have the firepower to consistently move the football. The Eagles will buck the trends regarding their poor play on the road and win comfortably.

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