We went 3-1 last week, and went 17-7 for the season, so we're looking to pick up where we left off. I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 9.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 9, including picks for Bears vs Bengals, Falcons vs Patriots, 49ers vs Giants, Saints vs Rams, and Chargers vs Titans.
NFL Player Props — Week 9
- WR, DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown (+200, BetMGM)
- RB, Bijan Robinson Over 5.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-111, FanDuel)
- RB, Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- RB, Alvin Kamara Longest Rush Under 10.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- RB, Kimani Vidal Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel)
Bears vs Bengals Player Prop: DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown
This is a great matchup for DJ Moore with the Bengals using Cover 6 as the second-highest rate in the NFL.
With Cover 6 designed to take out Rome Odunze with a zone double, more passes should flow to Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus and the tight ends.
But Moore has the highest target share against Cover 6 on the Bears, converting that into six catches on seven targets in just 18 routes, while Odunze has just four targets.
Moore also has the highest first-read rate on the team against Cover 6 as well and quarterback Caleb Williams locks on to his first read more than double the rate with a clean pocket than under pressure.
With the Bengals generating one of the lowest pressure rates in the league, Moore could be in for two-to-three receptions just against Cover 6 alone.
The Bears also ruled out starting running back D'Andre Swift as well as third-string Roschon Johnson, so Moore could mix in for a few more backfield snaps where he'll get a few carries and hauls in targets at more than 50% rate of routes run out of the backfield, overall giving him a few extra touches.
I'm projecting Moore closer to +170 for a touchdown.
Pick: DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Falcons vs Patriots Player Prop: Bijan Robinson First Quarter Receiving Yards
The Falcons have chosen to receive the ball all four times they won the coin toss this year, while New England has deferred all but one time.
That should give the Falcons a very high probability of starting with the ball, which the market isn't factoring in.
As a result of starting with the ball frequently, Bijan Robinson has slightly more than 25% of his receiving yards in the first quarter, so with a line of 35.5 to 36.6 out there, that would equate to around 8.5-10 yards on average.
But Robinson has averaged 59 yards receiving per game, so this total set low at 35.5 to 36.5 is quite notable given that this should be a volume-up spot.
That's because the Patriots allow the third-most targets per game to the running back position, the ninth-most yards and rank sixth-worst in defensive DVOA on pass attempts to running backs.
Robinson has cleared 5.5 in four out of seven games played, with one of the failed clears last week when the Falcons didn't start with the ball for the only time this year, also while Kirk Cousins was quarterback, but Penix is back this week and there's a high probability the Falcons start with the ball.
I'd play this up to 6.5 at -115 odds.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 5.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-111)
49ers vs Giants Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush
It's tough betting over 15.5 on a player that hasn't recorded a run longer than 15 yards this year, but if there's ever a spot to make this bet, it's the Niners against this awful Giants run defense.
Christian McCaffrey faced a brutal run schedule with four of his eight opponents ranking top eight in defensive DVOA to the run and all but two ranking in the top half.
For the Giants, they rank dead last against the run, so this is rather intriguing.
The Giants have allowed 16 of 161 (9.9%) non-quarterback scramble runs against them from at least 16 yards away from the end zone to clear 15.5 yards.
McCaffrey's rushing attempt line is 18.5, with around 85% of those runs likely to come from at least 16 yards away from the end zone.
Using worst-case estimates between best-fit distributions and raw rates of clearing 15.5 for both McCaffrey and the Giants defense, I'm getting that he's favored to clear this as long as he has at least 10 carries from 16+ yards away from the end zone.
At an 18.5 carry line, then 85% of those coming from far enough out means he's five or six carries clear of this 10 carry threshold.
I'm making this a rare 1.5u bet.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-115)
Saints vs Rams Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Longest Rush
Alvin Kamara has cleared this number on just eight out of 95 rushing attempts from at least 11 yards away from the end zone despite facing a slightly easier-than-league-average schedule.
The average rush defense rank of New Orleans' opponents has been 17.4, and the Rams rank eighth.
Three of the four teams Kamara cleared this line against are bottom nine in explosive run rate allowed, with the Rams have also allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate in the NFL.
Los Angeles is a 2TD+ favorite, so I would expect a pass-heavy script.
Taysom Hill should be worked in more, especially after Kellen Moore took the blame for getting Hill only five snaps last week.
At 13 projected carries, I have Kamara staying under 59% of the time, but it's likely my rushing attempt projection is too high (his line is 11.5, which I'd have almost 63% under 10.5 longest).
Pick: Alvin Kamara Longest Rush Under 10.5 Yards (-120)
Chargers vs Titans Player Prop: Kimani Vidal Longest Rush
Kimani Vidal has been a total revelation for the Chargers after losing running backs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris.
In his three starts, Vidal has run for 261 yards, including five runs clearing this 15.5 line on 50 attempts for a 10% rate.
That includes carries that couldn't even go for 16+ yards as they came from 15 yards or less from the goal line.
If we remove those, it's five of 38 carries (13.2%).
Meanwhile, the Titans allow an explosive run rate even worse than the average of Vidal's three opponents.
The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites, which should give Vidal plenty of volume to work with. At 17 projected carries, even if just 75% of those come from 16+ yards away from the goal line, I'm projecting approximately a 61% chance he clears 15.5 yards for his longest run.
Pick: Kimani Vidal Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-112)
Dr Nick's Week 9 Prop Bets
- WR, DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown (+200, BetMGM)
- RB, Bijan Robinson Over 5.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-111, FanDuel)
- RB, Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- RB, Alvin Kamara Longest Rush Under 10.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- RB, Kimani Vidal Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel)
