Chiefs vs Rams Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet the Favorite in Kansas City
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Travis Kelce.
- The Chiefs are 16.5-point favorites against the Rams in Week 12.
- Los Angeles is without multiple starting offensive linemen, as well as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
- John LanFranca breaks down the game and lays out how he's betting it below.
Chiefs vs Rams Odds
The reeling Rams won’t be getting any reprieve this week as they travel to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs will have to try and cover one of the largest spreads of the entire NFL season, and they’ll be doing it vs third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins.
With the Chiefs looking to run the table and lock up home-field advantage in the AFC once again, while also taking into consideration Patrick Mahomes' chase to win a second career Most Valuable Player Award, there will be no choice for this offense to keep the pedal to the metal on Sunday in a rout of the visiting Rams.
Rams vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Rams and Chiefs match up statistically:
Rams vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Perkins will bring a much needed element to the Rams offense this week in his first career NFL start. Perkins rushed for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns for the University of Virginia over two seasons and set numerous school total yardage records.
The Rams are desperate for any type of spark to ignite this running game. Los Angeles is last in the NFL in adjusted line yards at 3.92 according to Football Outsiders. To make matters worse, center Brian Allen will miss this game and third string left tackle Ty Nsekhe is a game-time decision.
Nsekhe has held his own at left tackle and without him, this offense led by a first time NFL starter might be down to a seventh-round rookie (A.J. Arcuri) who failed to make the opening day roster at the offensive line’s most important position.
Rams +15.5 | Chiefs -15.5
The Rams' offense in 2022 has averaged 26.1 yards per drive, 30th in the NFL. Now, the interior of their offensive line will have to face off with the number one rated interior defensive lineman in football according to PFF, Chris Jones. How long can we expect the Rams offense to stick to the run if they fall behind early?
If this game calls for Perkins to drop back and pass, the lack of pass protection for the Rams is a major concern. The Rams offensive line has an adjusted sack rate of 8.8%, 25th in football. The Chiefs defense has a 9.9% adjusted sack rate on defense, third best in the NFL. Perkins is going to be under duress if the Chiefs take an early lead in this game, and the situation is conducive to turnovers forced by the Chiefs defense and short fields for the Kansas City offense.
If the Rams want to have any chance of keeping this game close, their defense will have to step up in a big way. LA has been solid versus the run this season, but their pass defense is in shambles, allowing over 10 yards per pass last week to Andy Dalton. Now they will have to face the most dangerous passing attack in the league.
Mahomes has now thrown for over 300 yards in five straight games and the Chiefs convert first downs passing the football at the highest rate in the NFL. The Rams cannot get pressure on the quarterback, ranking dead last in pressure rate at only 21.8% (per Sharp Football). Since Week 7, this defense is 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 29th versus the pass.
The Chiefs team total of 28.5 feels rather low in this game, and I wouldn’t blame anybody for attacking this game in that manner. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in three of their past six games, and this is one of the easier matchups they will get all season.
In the three games under Mahomes that the Chiefs have closed greater than a two–touchdown favorite, KC has averaged 32 points per game.
In his career, Andy Reid is 4-1 against the spread in games where his team is favored by 14.5 points or greater. Since 2003, teams with an 80% win percentage or greater are 23-11-2 (67.6%) against the spread when they are favored by more than two touchdowns.
The Rams offensive line is outmatched and their pass defense has no chance of slowing down the red-hot Kansas City offense. The Rams have the worst against the spread margin (8.3 points per game) in the NFL this season and they simply do not have the firepower to even make this game close.
Lay the points with the Chiefs and enjoy the show on Sunday afternoon.
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