A Case for Betting the Saints-Cowboys TNF Over/Under

Betting odds: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

• Spread: Saints -7.5
• Over/Under: 52.5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime

Behold, the closing over/unders in Cowboys games this season: 42.5, 42, 40, 44, 45, 39.5, 40.5, 40, 45.5, 50, 40.

You may have noticed above, but this week's total is a wee bit different at a sparkling 52.5.

Two things caused the big adjustment:

1) The Cowboys are playing the Saints (duh), and the Saints are good at scoring points (also duh). In their past five games, New Orleans has scored 30, 45, 51, 48 and 31 points.

And 2) Dallas just roasted Washington for 31 points in front of a national TV audience on Thanksgiving day

So if you take these two things at face value, then the over/under makes sense.

But consider:

• Those five defenses that the Saints clobbered are ranked, on average, 21st in defensive DVOA. And if you just zoom in on the past three games — which have come against Bengals, Eagles and Falcons — you're talking about three of the nine worst defenses in the NFL and an average ranking of 28th.
• Dallas' 31 points were more the result of some abnormally big plays in the passing game — Cooper scored TDs of 40 and 90 yards — than some massive transformation on offense.

A large sample size of data tells us a few things…

These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL (Dallas ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' pace metric, while New Orleans ranks 30th).

This is a fascinating matchup in the run game: Both teams rank as two of the NFL's six most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, but they're also two of the top-three defenses per adjusted line yards. That means the clock should be moving frequently and yards shouldn't come as easy on the ground as these offenses are used to.

The big-play ability of the Saints' passing game scares me a bit — Sharp Football's explosive play metric ranks New Orleans fourth overall — but this line is still far too inflated based on recency bias.

I like the under, so long as it's at or above the key number of 51.

Bet to watch: Under 52.5

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.