Saints Targeting Week 4 Return To Superdome After Hurricane Ida: How Playing Away From New Orleans Impacts Win Total
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameis Winston
Hurricane Ida punched through New Orleans in August, leaving a path of destruction through the Gulf Coast. The Saints will kick off their 2021 NFL season against the Packers at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville for what should have been their home opener due to the devastation and impact of Ida on the city. As the impacted areas work through recovery, you can donate to the American Red Cross’ relief efforts here.
Sean Fazende of Fox 8 New Orleans reported Wednesday that Mayor LaToya Cantrell believes the Saints should be able to return to Caesars Superdome for their Week 4 matchup against the Giants on Oct. 3 in what would have been New Orleans’ second home game of the season.
Before their return to the Superdome is official, two of the five experts who power our NFL PRO Projections break down how the neutral site change could impact the Saints’ win total for the 2021 season.
Travis Reed: With the Saints playing in New Orleans, I made the line +1.1, and now make it +2.5 with the game moving to Jacksonville. The drop-off is going to be between one or two points depending on the matchup for me.
This does not affect my win totals much because for now I am expecting the Saints to return to New Orleans in Week 4 to take on the Giants. Even if that doesn’t happen, their next home game isn’t until Week 8 so they would only lose home field advantage for two games, which at most is going to be worth one-tenth of a win.
Raheem Palmer: Home-field advantage has been decreasing year over year during the past five seasons, going from 2.86 points in 2016 to 0.05 in 2020.
Separating home-field advantage by stadium though, I have home-field advantage at the Caesars Superdome at 2.095 points so the consensus line move from to -2.5 to -4.5 for the Packers makes sense.
We saw what happened to the 49ers last season when their home games were moved to Arizona — a team not playing on their home field could have a tremendous impact on their win total should they miss a few home games. Without the leadership of Drew Brees and a new quarterback in Jameis Winston, I’m not sure they can get over this.