49ers Best Bets vs Lions | NFC Championship Preview

The San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions in the NFC title game on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX, with the 49ers currently 7.5-point favorites against the Lions.

Our experts have been tracking their picks all week long ahead of the NFC Championship. For you 49ers fans and backers, here are our 49ers best bets vs the Lions in our NFC Championship Game preview.

By Brandon Anderson

The one thing I'm most confident in this weekend is that the 49ers will score.

Everyone agrees this is the best offense and worst defense left playing, but I think folks are missing just how big the gap is. San Francisco's offense has lapped the league when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are healthy. The 49ers rank first in rushing DVOA and passing DVOA by so much that they should really leave Nos. 2-6 empty to show how far the 49ers are ahead of the field.

And remember, Dan Campbell loves to play aggressive and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco.

I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners' team total escalator.

Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 29.5

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By Ricky Henne

A pass defense that was a sieve throughout the regular season — allowing the third-most yards per game (245.8) — continues to be picked apart in the postseason.

Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards in the Wild Card Round while Baker Mayfield carved the Lions up for 349 in the Divisional Round. It continues a troubling trend that plagued the team all season, particularly down the stretch. Detroit gave up 411 yards to Nick Mullens in Week 16 and 396 in Week 18, with a 345-yard performance by Dak Prescott sandwiched in between.

Now Detroit has to deal with a 49ers passing attack that ranked first in DVOA during the regular season. Brock Purdy was shaky last week, but the elements likely played a part as he’s struggled in similar conditions in the past. Fortunately for the 49ers, the forecast currently calls for sunny skies with a temperature in the 70s.

This bet has been offered as low as 274.5 and as high as 279.5, so be sure to shop around. Personally, I wouldn’t take it much higher than 279.5.

Pick: Brock Purdy Over 275.5 Pass Yards | Play to 279.5

By Sam Farley

Detroit cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson had this to say about Deebo: "I can guard you. You can't run routes, you're a running back".

Gardner-Johnson gave unnecessary bulletin-board material to Samuel and the 49ers offense, something you just don't do unprovoked. San Francisco is clearly the better team, and now Gardner-Johnson has lit a fire under its offense, or at least the very talented Samuel, for absolutely no reason.

But I will give Gardner-Johnson credit for one thing: he wasn't wrong that Samuel is also a running back. Even if Samuel doesn't score through the air, he is a threat to score on the ground, which could come to fruition in this matchup against a Detroit defense that finished 20th in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed per game.

Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime TD +130 | Play to +125

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By John LanFranca

Brandon Aiyuk should be featured in a matchup against a Lions defense that is struggling badly to defend the pass. Detroit finished the regular season 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s, specifically. This Lions defense continues to surrender an incredible amount of yards through the air, even in their two playoff victories.

Over their last five games, the Lions defense has given up 373 passing yards per game, and their inability to limit the opposition's best receiving option has been a glaring weakness.

Play Aiyuk over 75.5 receiving yards up to 76.5.

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 75.5 Rec. Yards | Play to 76.5

By Sam Farley

I’m really expecting a big George Kittle game. He had a nice performance against the Packers last time out with seven targets, a touchdown and 81 yards.

The Lions have had trouble defending tight ends all season, and we saw Cade Otton go off for 65 yards and a touchdown against them last week. I was tempted to back Kittle to score at +120, but I feel more confident in simply backing him to go over his receiving yards total up to 61.5.

Pick: George Kittle Over 58.5 Rec. Yards | Play to 61.5

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By Gilles Gallant

If you’re betting on a name-brand 49er, you either need to pay the premium or take another angle. It's worth taking a look at Aiyuk for a First Team TD Scorer, although we liked that bet at +500, and it's now +490 at best. Four of his seven touchdowns were the first Niners TD of the game. With the Lions ranking first in DVOA against the run, the 49ers will likely need to attack through the air, especially in the red zone.

Another angle that may not bear fruit but remains hard to overlook is RB2 Elijah Mitchell. He didn’t have a carry against Green Bay with McCaffrey getting all the backfield work, but in a run-first offense, Mitchell shouldn’t be +550 like he is at some books — and he certainly shouldn't be +700, as he is at Caesars.

I don’t care that the Lions ranked first in DVOA against the run during the season. Rachaad White averaged almost six yards per carry and scored a receiving TD off a screen. For me, Mitchell is McCaffrey insurance in case McCaffrey gets injured, needs a breather or the game becomes a blowout in favor of San Francisco.

Pick: Elijah Mitchell Anytime TD +700

By Matt Trebby

McCaffrey’s rush attempts prop is 18.5 (-110/-110) at FanDuel. Both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon have him projected for at least 19.1 carries. McCaffrey hasn’t gone over that total since Thanksgiving, though, and even then it was just 19.

Again, given Shanahan’s play-calling history, as well as the fact that the 49ers are laying seven points, this seems like the prop to target. McCaffrey is San Francisco’s best offensive player, and it would make sense to get the ball in his hands as much as possible and play to this offense’s biggest strength, which is him.

Both Koerner and Raybon have McCaffrey projected for 91 rushing yards on the dot, as well, which is a noteworthy edge to the over at 84.5. In this market, unlike below, I'd bet on the production instead of the volume from McCaffrey, despite the fact that he's facing the NFL's best run defense.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 84.5 Rush Yards

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By Nick Giffen

We’re getting a discount on McCaffrey because of the Lions’ low target rate allowed to running backs. Detroit allows the fourth-fewest targets per game to the position, thanks in large part to a No. 1 pressure rate and top-10 man coverage rate.

Against most backs, that’s enough to reduce reception volume as they either stay in to block more, are subbed out for better blocking backs or man marked out of the play.

But McCaffrey already faces the highest rate of man coverage among all RBs — in fact, he sees his target share increase from 18.1% of routes run against zone coverage to 23.7% of routes run against man coverage.

In addition, McCaffrey isn’t staying in to block. The whole point of San Francisco's offense is to get him the ball, and with Detroit’s No. 1 rush defense (by DVOA), expect the 49ers to use the short pass as an extension of the run game as a way to get around the Lions' front seven.

I’m projecting McCaffrey for just over five receptions, and should Deebo Samuel, who was removed the injury report, experience any in-game setbacks, that would just increase McCaffrey’s upside in this market.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Catches