49ers vs Commanders Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17 Preview

49ers vs Commanders odds have Washington listed as a 13-point underdog with an over/under of 49.5 total points. However, my 49ers vs Commanders prediction & pick and NFL Week 17 preview is on the heavy road favorite.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens on Christmas in what many considered a potential Super Bowl preview. Brock Purdy lost his MVP steam with a stunning four-interception performance. Suddenly, the 49ers have gone from being perceived as head and shoulders above the rest of the league to possibly not even getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Editor's Note: This post was written before Jacoby Brissett suffered an injury that is going to have him inactive for this game with Sam Howell starting.. The author still likes the 49ers to cover regardless of who plays quarterback for Washington.

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Jacoby Brissett replacing Sam Howell is a fascinating angle in this game. Howell showed signs of potential early in the season, aside from some sack and turnover issues. However, those red flags finally caught up to him and he seems to have a serious dose of what I call, “Zach Wilson Syndrome.” That is something I take incredibly seriously.

“Zach Wilson Syndrome” can be defined as a quarterback who has raw talent but was thrown into a bad situation too soon and is now mentally broken. Wilson seemed to get worse as his career progressed because he was mentally scarred by the bad plays, turnovers and constant pressure that he faced over his first couple of seasons with the Jets.

Over the last few weeks, Howell has stopped taking the shots that delivered electric moments early in the season. He was benched in favor of Brissett in each of the last two games. Playing in garbage time, Brissett led the Commanders back into those games and gave them a chance to win late.

I understand the reason for the move since Brissett has looked better and you are hoping to somewhat save Howell from potentially career-long ZWS. However, I fear that this is a bad matchup for the way that Brissett plays. He's much more conservative than Howell and will turn the ball over less, but he has historically taken fewer shots down field.

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The 49ers defense is elite. They rank fourth overall in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA and they don’t give away much in terms of easy completions. Brissett should struggle to get anything going against a defense that will be pissed over how the Christmas game against Baltimore went.

Kyle Shanahan has a homecoming of sorts here in Washington, where he first started to make his name as an offensive coordinator. I expect Shanahan to also take the Baltimore defeat personally and make a statement in this game.

Brock Purdy was the MVP-favorite entering Week 16 and now is being dismissed by the betting public and media after a bad game. However, the Ravens are the No. 1 pass defense in the league (per DVOA) and put on a masterclass.

This Commanders defense is the polar opposite of the Ravens. They are dead last in pass defense DVOA and coming off a game in which they somehow gave up 30 points to the league's worst offense (Jets).

Purdy and his weapons should have no problem picking apart Washington.

Getting under two touchdowns with what I consider to be the best offense in the league against the worst pass defense in the league is a bargain.

Jacoby Brissett will be far less efficient against the 49ers while Brock Purdy should enjoy a bounce-back game.

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