Seahawks vs Cowboys Picks: How to Bet Thursday Night Football

Seahawks vs Cowboys Picks | Thursday Night Football

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for Thursday Night Football and find a Seahawks vs. Cowboys pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.

For now, let's get into my Seahawks vs. Cowboys picks on Thursday night.

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• These teams are trending in opposite directions. Since Week 8, Dallas ranks second in the NFL in both passing and offensive DVOA as Dak Prescott continues to shred; Seattle has dropped to bottom 10 on both offense and defense as well as overall DVOA.
• It looks like RB Kenneth Walker will miss another game for the Seahawks, which leaves rookie Zach Charbonnet getting the bulk of the carries. Geno Smith is still recovering from an injury to his throwing arm, but he's expected to be a full go.
• This is the one Thursday game all season where both teams are playing on full rest (both played on Thanksgiving). That should make you think twice about blindly grabbing another Thursday night under.
• Thursday night favorites of seven or more points traditionally roll at 43-27 ATS (61%) — but is this line inflated? It was Dallas -6.5 before Thanksgiving and has risen to -8.5 or -9 as of Wednesday. Opponents coming off a win by 35 or more are just 42% ATS, while winners of 17 or more facing teams that lost by 17 or more — like Seattle — are 38% ATS.

It will be tough sledding for Seattle since Geno Smith struggles under pressure and Dallas brings the best Pass Rush Win Rate in the league. You're forgiven if you want to bet against Seattle by playing them to go under its team total of 19.5 points. The Seahawks have done that in three of the last four and were under it in a fourth game against Washington with four minutes left.

If Seattle is going to score, Dallas' defense has been elite defending both the left and right side of the field, but only 21st by DVOA over the middle and 25th against tight ends. That would typically lead to Noah Fant, who's getting the most snaps with a snap rate over 50% in five straight games. But Fant only has one red-zone target all season while five of Colby Parkinson's 20 targets have come in the red zone.

Smith looks for Parkinson when it counts, and Seattle will likely play with extra tight ends on the field against all those Dallas pass rushers. This number is too long at +1400.

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There's little reason to believe Seattle has much of a chance. The Cowboys' pass rush should dominate and make life miserable for Geno Smith, and Seattle's defense has fallen off, specifically struggling to get off the field on third down, where Dak Prescott has been absolutely unstoppable — he has the best numbers by any quarterback since 2017.

Prescott and the Cowboys are rolling and even better at home, but this line has risen and killed off much of the potential value — trends above suggest the line may have moved too far. Dallas has a monster game next Sunday against Philadelphia, and Seattle is capable of coming through the back door if the Cowboys let the foot off the gas late.

Instead, let's get under the key number and grab Cowboys -6.5 in the first half. Dallas has been much better in first-half DVOA (sixth in the first half vs. 22nd in the second), and Seattle's defense has been the exact opposite (27th in the first half vs. 10th in the second).

Perhaps that's why Dallas is 9-2 ATS for the season in the first half (second best in the NFL) while the Seahawks are 4-7 ATS (fifth worst).

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Let's get below the key number, get our money at the half, and get out.

All but one Dallas win this season has come by 20 points and five of Seattle's last seven losses are by at least 14, so the increased line isn't terribly bothersome but doesn't feel like the best value. The Cowboys have led by eight or more at the half in every one of those 20-plus-point wins, so I'll play the first half.

If your book is still hanging Dallas -8.5, this is also a nice teaser spot to start your weekend, ducking under the key numbers of three and seven.