Koerner’s Ultimate NFL Props Breakdown: Drew Brees and the Best Longshot ‘First TD’ Plays

Jan 13, 2019 08:00 AM EST

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott (21), Sony Michel (26), Drew Brees (9).

  • Sean Koerner runs through his favorite player prop bets for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, including 4 long shot "first TD" props.
  • Some of the players he touches on below includes Ezekiel Elliott, Sony Michel and more.

We have an awesome player prop tool at FantasyLabs, where we compare the player props from various sportsbooks to my projections to show where you can find the most betting value.

Bets with a Bet Quality of 10 have gone 225-106 (66%) this season, so you can  find some serious value.

Last week, the props I highlighted in this article went 5-2, but they were all plays you could have likely arrived at using our tool.

Because of this, I’m going to mix it up this week and add some first-touchdown props that are offering value.

These are obviously less likely to hit, which means we need to lower how much we risk, but they offer a nice chance for some nice payouts when they do hit.

Player Props: Chargers vs. Patriots

Sony Michel over 61.5 rushing yards (-108 on FanDuel)

Hopefully you were able to check out my article breaking down the most rushing yards market, where we were able to snag Michel at +900 when my true odds have him closer to +740.

The line has moved down to +750, which all but kills the value on him there. You still have a chance to invest in him here with a pretty soft number of 61.5.

Like I mentioned in my other article, the Pats have saved their rookie running back from massive workloads due to his knee issues in order to deploy him heavily in certain spots. Their best chance of success should be a run heavy approach makes the over on his rushing prop a great play.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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