Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Matchup Prop Bet: Rob Gronkowski vs. Josh Reynolds

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

20-18-3, +9.34 Units

• Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
• NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
• NBA: 7-6-0, +0.50 Units
• NHL: 6-3-2, +3.71 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman's Favorite Super Bowl 53 Receiving Matchup: Josh Reynolds vs. Rob Gronkowski

• Josh Reynolds: +170
• Rob Gronkowski: -250

While most player props are straightforward over/under or yes/no, some pit players against each other.

In some cases, these matchup props can be wonderfully exploitable, and this head-to-head receiving matchup between Rams wide receiver Josh Reynolds and Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is my favorite for Super Bowl 53.

Since slot receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10, Reynolds has been a regular contributor in three-receiver sets, averaging 8.7 targets for 49.6 yards per game. He's been something of a boom/bust producer, but he's taken advantage of his increased opportunities.

As for Gronk, his play has declined this season, and Super Bowl 53 is a potential #RetirementGame. He's coming off a bye week, so he should be fresh. He also had a strong six-reception, 79-yard performance on 11 targets in the AFC Championship Game.

But over the four games before that he managed just 70 total yards on 11 targets and five receptions.

It's hard to know which version of Gronk will show up in this game.

In our FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have the two players projected for a similar reception total, and this season (including playoffs) they've been eerily comparable as yardage producers on a per-reception basis.

• Josh Reynolds: 3.5 receptions, 14.6 yards per reception
• Rob Gronkowski: 4.0 receptions, 14.6 yards per reception

Gronkowski should be favored, and we do have him projected for more yards (53.6 vs. 45.5), but I don't consider Reynolds a significant underdog.

At +170 odds, Reynolds has an implied probability of just 37.0% to win this matchup, but I think that number in reality is closer to 45% given how comparably they've produced this season.

Plus, Gronk has a challenging matchup against safeties John Johnson and LaMarcus Joyner, while Reynolds is likely to avoid cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty for most of the game.

I bet on Reynolds at +170 and like him down to +150.

The Pick: Reynolds (+170)

Freedman’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets

For more insight on Super Bowl props, use the FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the sportsbooks that offer the most value on player props. In the tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57.9% win rate.

Here are the Super Bowl 53 props I’ve written about so far.

• Budweiser Clydesdales
• Rams Field Goals
• Player Props to Middle
• Romo/Nantz to Mention the Spread
• Trump to Attend the Game
• Success of First Coach’s Challenge
• Rob Gronkowski Receptions (Arbitrage)
• Greg Zuerlein MVP
• C.J. Anderson Touchdowns
• Rams-Patriots Total Penalties
• Head-to-Head Historical Matchups
• Roughing the Passer Penalty
• Quarterback Pass, Rush & Reception
• Non-Quarterback Passing Touchdown

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.